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Parliament will be dissolved shortly, all MP's will become former MP's and we will wait and see what happens on the 12th December.
Quote:
Originally Posted by English Dave
It's going to be a long six week political campaign. All parties will try and galvanise a jaded population, just sick to the back teeth of Brexit, after over three years since the vote to leave the EU.
Theresa May, in her 2017 General Election campaign, felt victory was in the bag. She didn't dig dirty, and reveal all about Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's political past. There isn't a terrorist group around the world he hasn't supported for the last 40 years. He even had IRA members invited to his Parliamentary offices, while they were still killing our people, and had attempted to kill Margaret Thatcher.
His closest associates are Marxists like John McDonnell, who he would make Chancellor in his government. He also has idiots like Diane Abbott in his shadow cabinet, who he would make Home Secretary in a government he formed. This woman is a laughing stock around the country, from many poor public performances. In government, there wouldn't be a refugee anywhere in the world refused entry to my small island.
They are ready to spend money we haven't got, on schemes that sound good to the public. Last time, when they left office, a comedian among them left a note on a desk in the Treasury office. It said, 'the money's all gone.'
Jeremy Corbyn is a 70 year old left winger common in England's political past. He would have fitted in just fine in Harold Wilson's cabinet in 1964. Those days are long gone, and this man needs throwing out as leader, after his upcoming defeat. He has said he may not go even after a second defeat. His people have infiltrated local Labour party politics, and many MPs are frightened of being deselected if they speak out against him. Only a huge defeat will get rid of this man, and his Marxist cronies.
We have to get behind Boris Johnson now, and ensure he has a working majority in Parliament after this upcoming election. Only then, will he be able to push his deal with the EU through, and we can move on to the next stage, of trade talks with the EU, and other countries around the world.
A December 12th election is risky. It will be dark outside by 4pm, and the weather could be bad. It won't put off determined voters, but it may put off some sick to the back teeth of this whole Brexit fiasco.
We shall see.
So are you guys supporting the Tories or maybe the Brexit party in the upcoming election? I take it from your posts that Labour and the Lib Dems probably do not have much of a chance with either of you.
The last Prime Minister's Questions session was held before the election today. House Speaker John Bercow was given tribute by PM Johnson and many other MP's. Bercow gave a misty eyed final address. Former Tory MP Kenneth Clarke also gave his final speech after over 50 years in Parliament.
Bercow formally resigns tomorrow, October 31. There is still some question about whether his replacement must be voted in with possibly only one day left in this Parliamentary session. However, if the Lords can get the election bill passed - without any amendments - and a few other house cleaning matters can be tidied up by tomorrow, then it appears that the plan may be to dismiss Parliament tomorrow and then vote in a new Speaker of Parliament when the new Parliament convenes after the election. Obviously, this makes sense.
Parliament could be closed down by tomorrow night to enable MPs to hit the campaign trail six days early, The Sun has learned. The Government is working with Commons officials to work out if they can get all outstanding Parliamentary business done before the close of play tomorrow.
No decision has been made on whether it is practically possible to tie everything up by tomorrow night. But three government sources have confirmed to The Sun that they are looking into plans to wrap everything up tomorrow and are “very keen” to do so. One insider said: “We are looking at all the business to get done before we all go off. No decisions made yet.”
So are you guys supporting the Tories or maybe the Brexit party in the upcoming election? I take it from your posts that Labour and the Lib Dems probably do not have much of a chance with either of you.
I have voted for the Labour party my entire adult life, starting with the vote for Labour in 1974. I voted that way even for candidates like Michael Foot, who was politically destroyed by Margaret Thatcher. I could never have voted for that woman.
I felt dissatisfied with the EU, and the invasion of my country from especially eastern European countries starting about 15 years ago. I struggled to see the benefits of EU membership. We were paying in almost the largest amount each year. I think only Germany paid in more.
I kept reading about the countries taking out like Poland, against us paying in. I saw the decay in many English northern towns, and read about new roads being built in eastern Europe using our money. Something just didn't seem right.
I saw an estimated 850,000 folks just from Poland coming to live and work in my country. Our own young people in competition for jobs, against eastern Europeans happy to work for minimum wage. The employers loved it of course.
With this dissatisfaction, the UKIP party led by Nigel Farage came into existence. They got a lot of votes in elections, mainly on an anti EU stance. This unnerved the Conservative party, leading to David Cameron offering a vote on EU membership. He did this hoping to stop Conservative voters drifting into voting for UKIP. I voted for the Conservatives for the first time in my life, to get this EU vote.
We all know what has happened since then. The Labour party, the so called party of the working class, has been taken over by a left wing nut case. His followers have infiltrated local Labour parties, ensuring their left wing candidates get put forward as potential MPs. Standing Labour MPs are threatened into toeing the leadership line, or be deselected, and removed as candidates to fight once again for their seats in Parliament. Corbyn and his followers rule by fear. Only a massive defeat in the upcoming election can remove this man from office as leader of the Labour Party.
The Brexit party can only split the vote in some essential seats that Boris Johnson needs to win, to get a majority. Johnson is the only one who will take us out of the EU. With a Parliamentary majority, he can bring this Brexit agony to an end, and then start to rebuild my countries future, outside the EU.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713
So are you guys supporting the Tories or maybe the Brexit party in the upcoming election? I take it from your posts that Labour and the Lib Dems probably do not have much of a chance with either of you.
I am not a member of any political party however I respect the so called once in a lifetime vote we had in 2016, and Pariament should also respect this.
In terms of Labour, they have become a far left anti-semitic party full of very dangerous individuals and would be a disaster for the country.
Personally I think Boris Johnson has made a much better PM that many believed, and for these reasons I will be supporting the Conservatives.
Personally I think Boris Johnson has made a much better PM that many believed, and for these reasons I will be supporting the Conservatives.
I think he has surprised a lot of people. Very few thought he could renegotiate the EU withdrawal agreement, or even that he was making a serious effort to do so.
It seemed even a few weeks ago there was a majority in the Commons that favored removing him in a no-confidence vote, they just couldn't agree on who the replacement should be.
He has also shown a degree of pragmatic leadership in allowing the extension to take effect rather than crash out with no deal as he previously promised to on the 31st, if no agreement had been ratified. I think that has given him broader support.
37% - Tories
24% - Labour
18% - Lib Dems
11% - Brexit Party
04% - Greens
There is a very nice graph at the link above.
A couple of things on this. The Brits use a "first past the post" system, with no runoffs. So with all of these candidates, it is highly likely that the winner will not get better than 50%. If the winner gets 29% and all the rest get less, then the winner still wins. We have a preliminary primary process that reduces these numbers down first. The British do not.
Also, there are 650 districts that elect MP's to the UK Parliament. So this math has to be applied individually to each district. Whichever party can muster the support of roughly 325 MP's gets to run the government and appoint the Prime Minister.
The number to watch here in my opinion is the Brexit party number, which has been trending steadily downward, as can be seen in the graph at the link. Support for the Brexit Party peaked at about 25% late last May after Theresa May capitulated to the Remainers and then started to make motions towards supporting a second referendum. She was booted out as PM a few weeks later. It is now down to 11% and looking like it will probably continue to trend further downwards.
If the Brexit party numbers go below 10%, the Tories are likely to be very strong. If the Brexit Party puts up a lot of candidates opposite the Tories and support goes above, say 15%, that will make the battle more difficult for the Tories.
Of course we need to caveat all of this by saying that polls like these are notoriously unreliable and we cannot really know with accuracy how this will turn out until the returns actually come in. But this is the best information we currently have and it shows the Tories leading by 13% in the poll average, which is very strong, by any reasonable assessment.
The Remainers wanted a second referendum. Well, this general election is a proxy for a second referendum and the government that comes out of it will determine the destiny of Brexit.
37% - Tories
24% - Labour
18% - Lib Dems
11% - Brexit Party
04% - Greens
There is a very nice graph at the link above.
A couple of things on this. The Brits use a "first past the post" system, with no runoffs. So with all of these candidates, it is highly likely that the winner will not get better than 50%. If the winner gets 29% and all the rest get less, then the winner still wins. We have a preliminary primary process that reduces these numbers down first. The British do not.
Also, there are 650 districts that elect MP's to the UK Parliament. So this math has to be applied individually to each district. Whichever party can muster the support of roughly 325 MP's gets to run the government and appoint the Prime Minister.
The number to watch here in my opinion is the Brexit party number, which has been trending steadily downward, as can be seen in the graph at the link. Support for the Brexit Party peaked at about 25% late last May after Theresa May capitulated to the Remainers and then started to make motions towards supporting a second referendum. She was booted out as PM a few weeks later. It is now down to 11% and looking like it will probably continue to trend further downwards.
If the Brexit party numbers go below 10%, the Tories are likely to be very strong. If the Brexit Party puts up a lot of candidates opposite the Tories and support goes above, say 15%, that will make the battle more difficult for the Tories.
Of course we need to caveat all of this by saying that polls like these are notoriously unreliable and we cannot really know with accuracy how this will turn out until the returns actually come in. But this is the best information we currently have and it shows the Tories leading by 13% in the poll average, which is very strong, by any reasonable assessment.
The Remainers wanted a second referendum. Well, this general election is a proxy for a second referendum and the government that comes out of it will determine the destiny of Brexit.
Yes, our first past the post voting system makes it difficult for smaller parties to make an impact. In 2015, UKIP got 12.5% of votes, and one seat in Parliament. Labour got 30.4% of votes, and ended up with 232 seats. The winning Conservative Party, got 36.8% of the vote, and got 330 seats.
But, in a local vote, The Labour candidate wins with say 12,300 votes, and UKIP get 12,299, The Labour candidate gets the job as MP. In most of Europe, they have proportional representation, so the total vote received, accounts for how many MPs a political party gets. Under that system, UKIP would have had 12.5% of total MPs. In the UK they got 1.
This suits the large political parties like the Conservatives and Labour, and they don't want to change it. They say this ensures immediate government by the winning party with most seats. In Europe, with PR, they have to horse trade with different parties, until they can form a government with over 50% of the vote.
This upcoming election is going to be an interesting one. It's only two years since the last one, but it feels like an eternity.We have had over three years of arguing over Brexit. All political parties accepted the result of the Brexit vote, right up to the 2017 GE. Only after that, did we get the 'oh well, maybe we need to do that again. Many people have changed their minds. We need a people's vote........' All this nonsense started after the 2017 election, on which they all fought on the platform of the Brexit vote being carried out.
We have not had a December GE since 1923. This is risky for all concerned. Will the voters turn out in heavy rain or snow? It will be dark outside by 4pm. Darkness, and bad weather could seriously affect turnout. Will the complaining kids crying about their future being given away, actually go and vote? Or will they just sit on the couch, and stare at their phones like the 2016 Brexit vote?
Can the Brexit party split the vote harming Boris Johnson's Conservative party? Or will the voters wanting Brexit get behind Johnson? The Brexit party leader, Nigel Farage, is enigmatic, and has a lot of support among those feeling left behind in the north of England.
Can Johnson win seats in the north in angry towns feeling they have been ignored by their MPs who have voted against Brexit, tying up first Theresa May, and now Boris Johnson, as they struggled to carry out the majority wish expressed in the 2016 vote?
Can the unpopular leader of the Labour party, turn this around during the campaign? He is already making huge promises like taking over the poorly run railway system. I have a feeling he will be offering a chicken for every pot in the next few weeks.
This General Election is actually another Brexit vote, in everything but name. We will find out what people want six weeks from now.
Last edited by English Dave; 10-31-2019 at 01:08 PM..
Yes, our first past the post voting system makes it difficult for smaller parties to make an impact. In 2015, UKIP got 12.5% of votes, and one seat in Parliament. Labour got 30.4% of votes, and ended up with 232 seats. The winning Conservative Party, got 36.8% of the vote, and got 330 seats.
But, in a local vote, The Labour candidate wins with say 12,300 votes, and UKIP get 12,299, The Labour candidate gets the job as MP. In most of Europe, they have proportional representation, so the total vote received, accounts for how many MPs a political party gets. Under that system, UKIP would have had 12.5% of total MPs. In the UK they got 1.
This suits the large political parties like the Conservatives and Labour, and they don't want to change it. They say this ensures immediate government by the winning party with most seats. In Europe, with PR, they have to horse trade with different parties, until they can form a government with over 50% of the vote.
This upcoming election is going to be an interesting one. It's only two years since the last one, but it feels like an eternity.We have had over three years of arguing over Brexit. All political parties accepted the result of the Brexit vote, right up to the 2017 GE. Only after that, did we get the 'oh well, maybe we need to do that again. Many people have changed their minds. We need a people's vote........' All this nonsense started after the 2017 election, on which they all fought on the platform of the Brexit vote being carried out.
We have not had a December GE since 1923. This is risky for all concerned. Will the voters turn out in heavy rain or snow? It will be dark outside by 4am. Darkness, and bad weather could seriously affect turnout. Will the complaining kids crying about their future being given away, actually go and vote? Or will they just sit on the couch, and stare at their phones like the 2016 Brexit vote?
Can the Brexit party split the vote harming Boris Johnson's Conservative party? Or will the voters wanting Brexit get behind Johnson? The Brexit party leader, Nigel Farage, is enigmatic, and has a lot of support among those feeling left behind in the north of England.
Can Johnson win seats in the north in angry towns feeling they have been ignored by their MPs who have voted against Brexit, tying up first Theresa May, and now Boris Johnson, as they struggled to carry out the majority wish expressed in the 2016 vote?
Can the unpopular leader of the Labour party, turn this around during the campaign? He is already making huge promises like taking over the poorly run railway system. I have a feeling he will be offering a chicken for every pot in the next few weeks.
This General Election is actually another Brexit vote, in everything but name. We will find out what people want six weeks from now.
This election should indeed offer you more clarity on what your people want, since the party positions on Brexit will be different this time as opposed to the 2017 election.
Yes, our first past the post voting system makes it difficult for smaller parties to make an impact. In 2015, UKIP got 12.5% of votes, and one seat in Parliament. Labour got 30.4% of votes, and ended up with 232 seats. The winning Conservative Party, got 36.8% of the vote, and got 330 seats.
But, in a local vote, The Labour candidate wins with say 12,300 votes, and UKIP get 12,299, The Labour candidate gets the job as MP. In most of Europe, they have proportional representation, so the total vote received, accounts for how many MPs a political party gets. Under that system, UKIP would have had 12.5% of total MPs. In the UK they got 1.
This suits the large political parties like the Conservatives and Labour, and they don't want to change it. They say this ensures immediate government by the winning party with most seats. In Europe, with PR, they have to horse trade with different parties, until they can form a government with over 50% of the vote.
This upcoming election is going to be an interesting one. It's only two years since the last one, but it feels like an eternity.We have had over three years of arguing over Brexit. All political parties accepted the result of the Brexit vote, right up to the 2017 GE. Only after that, did we get the 'oh well, maybe we need to do that again. Many people have changed their minds. We need a people's vote........' All this nonsense started after the 2017 election, on which they all fought on the platform of the Brexit vote being carried out.
We have not had a December GE since 1923. This is risky for all concerned. Will the voters turn out in heavy rain or snow? It will be dark outside by 4am. Darkness, and bad weather could seriously affect turnout. Will the complaining kids crying about their future being given away, actually go and vote? Or will they just sit on the couch, and stare at their phones like the 2016 Brexit vote?
Can the Brexit party split the vote harming Boris Johnson's Conservative party? Or will the voters wanting Brexit get behind Johnson? The Brexit party leader, Nigel Farage, is enigmatic, and has a lot of support among those feeling left behind in the north of England.
Can Johnson win seats in the north in angry towns feeling they have been ignored by their MPs who have voted against Brexit, tying up first Theresa May and now Boris Johnson, as they struggled to carry out the majority wish expressed in the 2016 vote?
Can the unpopular leader of the Labour party, turn this around during the campaign? He is already making huge promises like taking over the poorly run railway system. I have a feeling he will be offering a chicken for every pot in the next few weeks.
This General Election is actually another Brexit vote, in everything but name. We will find out what people want six weeks from now.
People both here and in your country generally vote in a tribal manner, based on party. This election is going to be fascinating because of all the other factors that voters and potential voters will be taking into account, as you discussed above.
This will be to significant degree the second referendum that the Remainers have been clamoring for. All they have to do is win a majority of the seats in this election, and Brexit is finished. So they will have nothing legitimate to complain about, if they fail to achieve that objective here. They will have had their chance.
As far as the turnout, if the weather is harsh, the more motivated voters will vote and the less motivated will stay home. I would expect older voters will put on three coats and two pairs of gloves, or whatever, and grab their walkers and find their way down to the polls, even if it is the storm of the century on that day. With the youngsters, it is the same everywhere. A lot of talk but they do not vote. Especially not when there are impediments in the way.
People both here and in your country generally vote in a tribal manner, based on party. This election is going to be fascinating because of all the other factors that voters and potential voters will be taking into account, as you discussed above.
This will be to significant degree the second referendum that the Remainers have been clamoring for. All they have to do is win a majority of the seats in this election, and Brexit is finished. So they will have nothing legitimate to complain about, if they fail to achieve that objective here. They will have had their chance.
As far as the turnout, if the weather is harsh, the more motivated voters will vote and the less motivated will stay home. I would expect older voters will put on three coats and two pairs of gloves, or whatever, and grab their walkers and find their way down to the polls, even if it is the storm of the century on that day. With the youngsters, it is the same everywhere. A lot of talk but they do not vote. Especially not when there are impediments in the way.
Yes, the older voters will turn out to vote, come what may weather wise. Oh, the kids have marched through London demanding a second Brexit vote on nice sunny days. Let's see what happens on December 12th, when they are mentally distracted by Christmas parties, and their plans for Friday night, the day after the election.
The youngsters are notorious for not voting in General Elections. We shall see on the day, won't we? Let's hope they don't whine if the Conservatives win. 'Oh I MEANT to vote, but like, my phone needed charging. What, like, was I supposed to do dude?' Go out without it?....... Plus it was RAINING.
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Plus it was RAINING.