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Originally Posted by juppiter
Why repealing Obamacare is going to be a long, chaotic mess.
The GOP has spent 6 years screeching at the top of its lungs that Obamacare needs to be repealed and replaced. The problem is, they never had much of a plan for the replace. So now it is something that they absolutely must do because they said so many times that they would do it -- but it's not going to be an easy thing to do.
The problem is that this is not food stamps or medicaid -- people who voted Republican and people who voted Trump are benefiting from Obamacare. If the GOP strips them of their benefits summarily, they will be pissed. Some insurers have struggled to make money under Obamacare, but other insurance companies have thrived under the law and are making record profits.
Obamacare is a mess -- there are too many regulations for employers and it always risked a death spiral of too many sick people signing up and too many insurers dropping out and too many people simply electing to pay a penalty. But the law also had benefits for many people, and they won't realize those benefits until they are ripped away.
The GOP would probably love to repeal the law on day 1 and delay the effect for a year or two while they dream up the replacement. But that would also be a mess because then insurers would drop out pre-emptively and leave a gap before the replacement.
It's going to be a mess and one I am glad I can sit on the sidelines and watch since I voted for Clinton (and I have employer coverage anyway so it doesn't affect me.)
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Paul Ryan has a substitute plan, if I remember correctly.
I've said this countless times, to relatives, friends, and in online forums. I was an avid supporter of the HCA, so followed its passing and progression fairly closely. I then watched, and unfortunately experienced, the installation of the final provisions in 2014, since I purchased an individual policy.
It took five years to implement the act fully because of its reach into so many areas of the business and government sectors, and its complications and complexity. I knew it could not just be repealed in one stroke without causing significant hardship to the public, including deaths, as well as significant problems to businesses, who made business plans based on Obamacare provisions, changed accounting procedures, and even made hiring decisions based on it.
So I knew all this blustering talk of repealing Obamacare was just talk. I thought they might eventually repeal it, but that at best it would be done in stages.
But they'll do something. Who knows what remains to be seen. I think Paul Ryan will try to privatize Social Security and Medicare (partially) by blaming those programs' alleged issues on Obamacare.
Now Trump is making sounds that parts of it may need to remain. I've always said the pre-existing condition part of Obamacare could have been passed alone and didn't need an entire reform act. So I think they'll keep that in some way (in fact, keeping that is part of Paul Ryan's plan).
One after another, the stones that Trump stacked to get votes are falling. Climate change, Obamacare, Mexico wall, deporting 11 million illegals, bringing lots and lots of jobs and jobs so many jobs that we'll yell stop with all the jobs, not being elitist....