One of the more interesting things to look at is how people look at things when they put their money where their mouth is.
Some folks made a absolute killing on the Trump election. So remember...odds are just that. During the election betting people gave him a 1 in 10 chance, which was emotion talking.
You can buy yes votes on Trump being impeached within 100 days of Jan 20th for $.07. No for $.94 at the moment. Payout is $1. (As it could be considered gambling I am not going to link it as I am unsure of the rules here on that). What are the actual odds? The important part in my mind is the 100 days.
I think the Cabinet bets are more interesting, because to be honest I think people may have assumptions about Trumps willingness to fire people before they are confirmed, and the cabinet members being passed that are based on emotion not logic.
LOL. Tillerson making it to secretary of state? $.77 for yes. Not looking good for him. With no votes costing $.24 that might be interesting to me. A no vote on Bolten for it costs $.99. If it was just money numbers that is a great bet, but the opportunity cost of taking it outweighs it being worthwhile. Basically if it takes over a year to win the bet, its not worth betting unless you can make more then inflation.
Now if you are a true believer in Trump and his promises.....you can make quite a bit. For example, will Trumps favorable rate be over 45% by the end of this month? yes costs $.37.
BTW Trumps one year impact on the national debt? Most people betting say he will increase it by more then 1.5 Trillion. That would quite literally blow Obama's deficits out of the water.
Obama by year:
Quote:
2008: $459 billion
2009: $1.41 trillion
2010: $1.29 trillion
2011: $1.30 trillion
2012: $1.09 trillion
2013: $680 billion
2014: $485 billion
2015: $438 billion
2016: $587 billion
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So doubling the deficit in his first year alone. Ouch.
Next fun one? Will China be labeled a currency manipulator by June 30th? This ones split. $.44 to buy a yes vote-if you TRULY believe in Trump this is easy money folks! He promised! Again, a word of warning. China is having some issues, and their currency is doing odd things compared to ours. By June 30th lots of things may change. This one to me is more of a gamble in some ways.
ACA subsidy repeal? $.59 if you believe it will happen by the end of 2017. Be careful with this one though, these things take time to do right. If they repeal it quickly, then it will be clear that they have ZERO idea what they are doing. If this is done, I expect it to take time.
Individual mandate repeal by the end of 2017? $.68 for yes. I think I might buy some no votes on this one. Yes I think the individual mandate will go away, but no because I think it will take them longer. I would not risk much here though.
Palin in the cabinet on March 31st? No costs $.90. Low reward there, but I think the odds are closer to 99%. Trump may like her personally, but her behavior lately is erratic enough that there is no way she survives a confirmation hearing. Honestly I think she has something medically wrong, and if I heard she was getting some sort of treatment I would revise my betting accordingly. (I used to be really down on Palin, but taking the time to go back a bit before her VP pick she used to be a LOT more together.
Lots of interesting ones on if Obama will pardon or commute folks.
Bergdahl for example, $.73 for a "no". Definately going to grab some of that. I can't see Obama pardoning a military soldier who did in fact do wrong things. Obamas viewpoints on that are pretty well known, a pardon for Berghdahl would amaze me.
Manning though.....tougher call. If he has followed some of the issues there, or discussed it with a Manning supporter. $.09 for a yes vote. I think that might be worthwhile-but not by much. A pardon absolutely won't happen, but I could see a commutation. See this ones fun. A commutation has very low odds I think. Maybe 20%. Which means that up to about $.15 might be worthwhile.
If a mod posts here or messaging me saying its OK, I will link to it, and post what I buy here after I do so, its not a company running this, but rather a university in Auckland thats partnered with US colleges. A politico article discusses it passing all of the regulatory hurdles and Commodity futures trading which oversees such exchanges. The article states it is legal, and NOT gambling.
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