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Let's assume for a moment that the Russian billionaire oligarchs lose control to the hardliners that want to reset back to the glory of the USSR. Let's say they want their tanks rolling through the Ukraine, Poland, etc. How would they go about it assuming the US is seen as the barrier?
Most likely, if they felt war was the best approach, here is how they'd probably do it.
They would most likely fire four nukes into our atmosphere from container ships, two off our west coast and two off our east coast. We'd have around three minutes to react. Since we wouldn't know who initiated the launch or have time to verify, we would not launch any retaliation. This EMP attack would take out the US and Canadian electric grids along with northern Mexico. We'd be plunged into darkness and practically the dark ages.
Our civil society would break down within hours causing our focus to shift primarily on trying to gain order, which will not work.
Meanwhile, Russia would make its move and in short order China will most likely use this crisis to make their land grabs.
We'd probably have the hard data proving it was Russia within a week. Of course, now millions of Americans have died from medical issues and civil unrest. We'd still be months if not years from getting even a small part of our grid back and we'd be on the verge of over half our population starving to death.
Do we then launch against Russia knowing that it would mean an actual nuclear launch against us?
How much of our military forces will even remain in place as they are dealing with domestic uphevel and even trying to determine the status of their family and wanting to keep them from starving to death?
I really don't think we'd launch our ICMBs knowing what would be the result. I also think this is what the Russians would believe.
Russia and China would be the remaining superpowers, and the US would be severely crippled for a decade.
If Russian hardliners wanted a military conquest of Eastern Europe, this would be most likely how it would play out.
So, assuming Russian hardliners want to return to the days of the Soviet Bloc, do we want to be the military barrier standing in their way?
That's why Trump is right that we should be an ally instead of a foe of Russia. A strong Putin may actually be the best prevention of the hardliners coming into power.
When we try to overthrow "dictators" we end up with worse regimes. See Iraq, Syria, etc.
Where in the hell do you even come up with such scenarios?
Every country has hardliners, this is like me stating about some US hardliners, and some absurd scenario of global conquest.
Russian hardliners come in many shapes and sizes, there is rarely a "wish to return to the USSR" has hardliners despise the fact that the name Russia itself was wiped from the map, and placed as a mere republic within the USSR. Other hardliners do not wish a return to Soviet days, but like the projection of global power the USSR had relative to what Russia has now days.
As for your scenario, for a country (the US) that sends its troops and planes around the world daily and engage in combat (how many bombs did we drop last year on how many countries?), I think this is a bit strange thinking you have.
Americans keep smearing Russia and China left and right.
However, in this century America killed way more innocent people than Russia and China combined. America is much more hated throughout the world than Russia and China too.
We keep hearing the left on this forum talk about the rise of the Russian hardliners and how the US should be posturing and sending military assets to their border.
I'm just pointing out that if Russian hardliners are rising in Russia, the last thing we should do is provoke them.
I really don't think we'd launch our ICMBs knowing what would be the result. I also think this is what the Russians would believe.
Russia and China would be the remaining superpowers, and the US would be severely crippled for a decade.
If Russian hardliners wanted a military conquest of Eastern Europe, this would be most likely how it would play out.
So, assuming Russian hardliners want to return to the days of the Soviet Bloc, do we want to be the military barrier standing in their way?
I say no. I say it's not worth the risk.
I don't think Russia will invade Europe. such a war would be extremely unpopular in Russia, and would probably cause severe disciplinary problems in their Army. Moreover, their Army was damaged as by Afghanistan as much as the American army was damaged by Vietnam.
Plus, Russia is too damn poor. Their government is not stable, their government may collapse again.
All these said, however, U.S.Shouldn't even consider going into war with the Russians. It is not going to be an easy win. Maybe Russia will be destroyed, (maybe) and America becomes the third world country. What is the purpose of all of these?
7 days later the Ohio class US submarines at sea launch a total of 24 Trident I SLBM's. Each carrying up to 12 nuclear warheads per missile. Assuming only 1/2 of our submarine force can launch thats a total of 2,592 nuclear weapons fired in response.
Thats mutually assured destruction without the use of a single land based missile, all of which are also hardened against nuclear attack and EMP.
Where in the hell do you even come up with such scenarios?
Every country has hardliners, this is like me stating about some US hardliners, and some absurd scenario of global conquest.
Russian hardliners come in many shapes and sizes, there is rarely a "wish to return to the USSR" has hardliners despise the fact that the name Russia itself was wiped from the map, and placed as a mere republic within the USSR. Other hardliners do not wish a return to Soviet days, but like the projection of global power the USSR had relative to what Russia has now days.
As for your scenario, for a country (the US) that sends its troops and planes around the world daily and engage in combat (how many bombs did we drop last year on how many countries?), I think this is a bit strange thinking you have.
You are a dreamer if you think scenarios like that will not play out one day. Nukes eventually WILL be used, we didn't build them just to be admired. The only question is how widespread the destruction will be. Nuclear war is survivable by the way, assuming that we use weapons less that 1 Megaton or so. A few million might die in such a conflict, but remember - 60 million died in WWII.
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