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No way to know. Changes are not linear- a 1% change the next 4 years does not make automatic 1% every 4. Plus, even amongst minorities, the suburb folks who are middle class or more mirror those economic voting patterns. The older folks are less liberal than the young, even amongst minorities. Then add in the census shift, which is always 6-10 blue to red, too many factors to play Kreskin 12 years out..from a poster who missed 2016 one day before.
No, there is a way to know. The groups that currently provide the muscle for the GOP are drying up; white evangelicals and white non-college will not be able carry the load for the GOP after about 2032 under any scenario. There just won't be enough of them left. That doesn't mean that the R party is necessarily doomed, or that the D's will win forever, only that the Republicans will need to increase their share of other groups and win in another way.
No, there is a way to know. The groups that currently provide the muscle for the GOP are drying up; white evangelicals and white non-college will not be able carry the load for the GOP after about 2032 under any scenario. There just won't be enough of them left. That doesn't mean that the R party is necessarily doomed, or that the D's will win forever, only that the Republicans will need to increase their share of other groups and win in another way.
Again there is no way to know, as that is only one factor.
Minority financial success plays a role, minorities getting older plays a role, census plays a role. 3 factors you are not including.
In addition, as our median age nationally increases, that also plays in GOP's favor.
DNC needs to profusely apologize to those deplorables. No Rust Belt, no DNC path to 270.
Both chambers Congress is already gone for the Dems, IMO, 90% of the terms. Middle America abhors the DNC, by and large. 218 and 51 aren't happening w/o Middle America. Contrary to popular belief, Wall St is not the be all, end all.
Yes, unless the Republican party stops being the party of The Rich. Strange how they have conned some of the poor people into thinking they are on their side when all they're doing is lining their own pockets. Sure, they'll throw a few bones to the poor workers but then they'll forget about them.
Imagine how the poor coal miners in West VA would feel if the Republicans got their way and yanked their Medicaid away. Poor people, whether currently employed or unemployed still need healthcare. If Republicans don't really start thinking about the poor and underprivileged, they'll be doomed. Last gasp.
That is most likely, as most main stream Republicans, Bush, Rubio, have moved to Center with respect to Immigration, applauding their gay members, and hopefully pulling us out of additional conflicts. The Dems seem to be moving further left
Yeah, that's what people working for half what they used to make 15-20 years ago are worried about - gay marriage and opportunities for illegals!
Again there is no way to know, as that is only one factor.
Minority financial success plays a role, minorities getting older plays a role, census plays a role. 3 factors you are not including.
In addition, as our median age nationally increases, that also plays in GOP's favor.
DNC needs to profusely apologize to those deplorables. No Rust Belt, no DNC path to 270.
Both chambers Congress is already gone for the Dems, IMO, 90% of the terms. Middle America abhors the DNC, by and large. 218 and 51 aren't happening w/o Middle America. Contrary to popular belief, Wall St is not the be all, end all.
You're missing my point, I think. I'm not necessarily predicting future elections, but I'm saying that we know based upon statistics that the current R coalition will no longer work and will have to be expanded to win. That much we know. You can't keep milking declining demographics eternally, not expand your base and still win. A large chunk of those deplorables will be dead by 2032. Maybe the GOP closes the gap between white college and white non-college or finally breaks through with the minority vote by 2032, but the current coalition simply won't get it done. That's not even subject to argument. It's basic math.
If you can find any reputable demographer who has plotted out a long term projection where the current Republican coalition continues to win presidential elections indefinitely by depending on the same coalition and not improving with minorities and college whites, I'd be interested in seeing it.
You're missing my point, I think. I'm not necessarily predicting future elections, but I'm saying that we know based upon statistics that the current R coalition will no longer work and will have to be expanded to win. That much we know. You can't keep milking declining demographics eternally, not expand your base and still win. A large chunk of those deplorables will be dead by 2032. Maybe the GOP closes the gap between white college and white non-college or finally breaks through with the minority vote by 2032, but the current coalition simply won't get it done. That's not even subject to argument. It's basic math.
If you can find any reputable demographer who has plotted out a long term projection where the current Republican coalition continues to win presidential elections indefinitely by depending on the same coalition and not improving with minorities and college whites, I'd be interested in seeing it.
Simply put, people don't see Trump for the anomaly that he is. His victory is a singular phenomenon. When he exits the stage, they'd better have someone else like him to win those midwestern states again.
If they think they're going to do it with one of those far right wackjob types, they can forget it.
That Republicans "won the battle but lost the war"
That Democrats are favored in the future
True or false?
They're both controlled by the same people.
If either are in power, YOU LOSE!!!!
Unless you're a self-hating person or evil loving or just not informed.
The difference between the Republicans and Democrats is the entire Dem party is controlled lock, stock and barrel along with the Soviet Style media. The R's are about 50-75%, give or take, controlled, as of today, "they" want to change that and may have already. It's possible the whole Trump thing is an extremely clever ruse. Although I don't believe so because the PTB seem to be genuinely freaked out by him. Although, like I said, these people play fourth dimensional chess not two, so as I've said it could be a clever ploy. Time will tell.
But the reason Trump went through the Republican Party is because it has what's left of the few Constitution supporting Americans who still want to live in a free society.
If you can find any reputable demographer who has plotted out a long term projection where the current Republican coalition continues to win presidential elections indefinitely by depending on the same coalition and not improving with minorities and college whites, I'd be interested in seeing it.
Please show me one demographer who projected 2016 well. ONE.
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. The Dems seem to be moving further left
