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Old 05-25-2017, 09:18 PM
 
Location: PSL
8,224 posts, read 3,496,023 times
Reputation: 2963

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Lol I was out flying a kite in hurricane Matthew. I'm used to blizzards with super high wind gusts, and have been through 2 tornadoes with hail. This hurricane stuff is a joke.

I was expecting to see stuff never engineered to fly take off.
4 tree branches and that's the best a hurricane can do?! You're going to need a bigger bait.

I was on my pool floatie drinking letting the breeze blow me around and bounce me off the wall. It was fun.

Waiting to see this widow maker type storm...

I'll strap pontoons to the truck, drop the driveshaft from the pinion yoke, fabricate a carrier bearing and bracket, make a propeller to go on the end of the driveshaft and rig a rudder up off the steering box... be the red neck NY refugee version of Noah's arc... 2 types of every beer and gun in the bed. Fly a pirate flag and head north until I reach pavement again.
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Old 05-25-2017, 11:49 PM
 
Location: New Orleans, La. USA
6,354 posts, read 3,653,469 times
Reputation: 2522
Quote:
Originally Posted by LesserSeneca View Post
They're wrong about 70% of the time. Even when they change the wording to be vague and almost meaningless, they still get it wrong.


NOAA hurricane outlook indicates an above-normal
Atlantic season, 2011.



NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, 2013.
You used the year 2011 as evidence the NOAA is inaccurate predicting hurricane seasons.

The following are NOAA's official 2011 hurricane season predictions.

"12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) of which:"
"6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)"
"Including: 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)"

NOAA hurricane outlook indicates an above-normal Atlantic season


The following shows the storms that actually happened in 2011.

"Total storms-19" NOAA predicted 12 to 18 (the NOAA estimates were off by 1 storm)

"Hurricanes-7" NOAA predicted 6 to 10 (NOAA's prediction was 100% accurate.)

"Major hurricanes- 4" NOAA estimated 3 to 6 major hurricanes (NOAA's prediction was 100% accurate.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_A...rricane_season



But in 2013 "All major forecasting agencies predicted an above-average season. All reduced their seasonal predictions in early August, but even the revised predictions were too high. The lack of activity was primarily caused by an unexpected significant weakening of the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation between winter and spring. This resulted in continuation of the spring weather pattern over the Atlantic Ocean, with strong vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture, and atmospheric stability, which suppressed tropical cyclogenesis."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_A...rricane_season


Fact is the NOAA uses complex science to predict hurricane seasons. And just like your local meteorologist can give you a good idea of the weather tomorrow, the NOAA can give governments, businesses, and citizens a good idea of a coming hurricane season (though it won't always be 100% accurate because they are predicting weather 6 months in advance.)


The corporate republican machine tries to discredit man-made global warming (and the agencies that study it) because combating global warming would decrease the profits in the large corporations that fund the republican party.

https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/20...machine/191545
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Old 05-26-2017, 12:20 AM
 
Location: Japan
15,292 posts, read 7,756,889 times
Reputation: 10006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve McDonald View Post
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts more hurricanes this coming season in the Atlantic and a couple of very large ones. The administrators of NOAA should be aware that this is not the kind of information that will further their standing in Trump World. Will Trump's response be to try to cut their funding, to eliminate such pesky reminders of Global Warming?

He's already proposed making heavy cuts in their programs and those of other agencies involved in environmental and natural-disaster research.

2017 hurricane forecast calls for above-normal season in Atlantic - CBS News

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...change/527814/
It's exactly this sort of hyperbole that has made the whole issue a joke in many people's eyes.
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Old 05-26-2017, 07:16 AM
 
24,401 posts, read 23,056,554 times
Reputation: 15005
And they've been right when? Maybe they'll end their losing streak and actually get it right this time. or we'll continue with the global warming induced inactivity of hurricanes.
They can still call a weak class 2 hurricane a class 4 or class 5 and then have it "suddenly weaken" once it gets near shore. That's always fun , scaring the **** out of people.
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Old 05-26-2017, 07:58 AM
Status: "Apparently the worst poster on CD" (set 25 days ago)
 
27,640 posts, read 16,125,463 times
Reputation: 19049
Another example of the boy who cried wolf
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Old 05-26-2017, 08:08 AM
 
4,279 posts, read 1,903,645 times
Reputation: 1266
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregW View Post
The Fundamental characteristic of the Trumpets is they will suppress anything that interferes with FAITH. They believe that all science is fake and that whatever their Savior says is revealed TRUTH.
Oh get off it!

Seriously, these stupid climate change predictions consistently fail and you can only cry wolf so many times before people ignore you.

Eventually we may have a strong season, but we have had little to no activity for years.

If you bet on a specific number, eventually that number will come up. It isn't predictive, it is simply the odds.

The NOAA is a political focused agency for activists. They are as bad as the EPA.
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Old 05-26-2017, 08:24 AM
JRR
 
Location: Middle Tennessee
8,165 posts, read 5,657,641 times
Reputation: 15693
Quote:
Originally Posted by NY_refugee87 View Post
Lol I was out flying a kite in hurricane Matthew. I'm used to blizzards with super high wind gusts, and have been through 2 tornadoes with hail. This hurricane stuff is a joke.

I was expecting to see stuff never engineered to fly take off.
4 tree branches and that's the best a hurricane can do?! You're going to need a bigger bait.

I was on my pool floatie drinking letting the breeze blow me around and bounce me off the wall. It was fun.

Waiting to see this widow maker type storm...

I'll strap pontoons to the truck, drop the driveshaft from the pinion yoke, fabricate a carrier bearing and bracket, make a propeller to go on the end of the driveshaft and rig a rudder up off the steering box... be the red neck NY refugee version of Noah's arc... 2 types of every beer and gun in the bed. Fly a pirate flag and head north until I reach pavement again.
Come back and let us know how it went if you ever actually go through a Cat 2 or higher hurricane instead of just being brushed by tropical storm winds, like happened with Matthew.
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Old 05-26-2017, 08:31 AM
 
13,898 posts, read 6,442,664 times
Reputation: 6960
Quote:
Originally Posted by JIMANDTHOM View Post
For all those who want to slam the NOAA as fake science etc, it will take more time for models to develop and accuracy to improve.


National Weather Service does a pretty damned good job with tornado warnings. Maybe you should ignore their warnings!
lmao..A tornado warning means someone spotted one, as in a real person, not a radar or a computer model.
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Old 05-26-2017, 09:28 AM
 
17,441 posts, read 9,265,380 times
Reputation: 11907
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve McDonald View Post
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts more hurricanes this coming season in the Atlantic and a couple of very large ones. The administrators of NOAA should be aware that this is not the kind of information that will further their standing in Trump World. Will Trump's response be to try to cut their funding, to eliminate such pesky reminders of Global Warming?

He's already proposed making heavy cuts in their programs and those of other agencies involved in environmental and natural-disaster research.

2017 hurricane forecast calls for above-normal season in Atlantic - CBS News

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...change/527814/
Weather forecasts are a very small part of NOAA spending - but it's about the only part that the Uninformed understand. Forecasts with continue, Warnings will continue - nothing will change because they don't get to hire more people, give more corporate grants, move buildings or build an $4 Billion dollar ship.

A look at the 2016 Budget - they spend their budget on some pretty funky stuff.

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Budget for Fiscal year 2016
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Old 05-26-2017, 09:35 AM
 
17,614 posts, read 17,656,125 times
Reputation: 25677
Other than local weather forecasters and insurance salesmen, most of us in hurricane country ignore these doom and gloom predictions. If a storm might be heading our way, we already have our emergency lights, canned or dry food supplies, some bottled water, bathtub full of water for flushing, and friends/family who have homes on higher ground. Most of the people of the Gulf Coast know how to deal with hurricanes. New Orleans was just a special kind of stupid.
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