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Why HuffPost's Presidential Forecast Didn't See A Donald Trump Win Coming | The Huffington Post
Our model predicted that Democrat Hillary Clinton had a 98 percent chance of being elected. That was more pro-Clinton than most other forecast models (although all of them predicted a Clinton win). Our model said five Senate seats would shift from Republican to Democratic, giving Democrats a likely majority.
Why HuffPost's Presidential Forecast Didn't See A Donald Trump Win Coming | The Huffington Post
Our model predicted that Democrat Hillary Clinton had a 98 percent chance of being elected. That was more pro-Clinton than most other forecast models (although all of them predicted a Clinton win). Our model said five Senate seats would shift from Republican to Democratic, giving Democrats a likely majority.
L.A. Times
Clinton 352, Trump 186
Moody’s Analytics
Clinton 332, Trump 206
Rothenberg & Gonzales
Clinton 323, Trump 197
Princeton
Clinton 228, Trump 164
FiveThirtyEight
Clinton 302, Trump 235
The election ended in November. This is a poll about the sitting president but I am sure you knew that already.
I'm a big fan of Pew Polls because of the number of persons they typically interview. This is the first one from them that I've seen on Trump's approval. Pew is known for non-partisan voter surveys that go into great depth with large samples. This total survey polled over 2500 people, so it allows for more detailed information than you normally see. In addition to a detailed breakdown for the total survey, they have the same data for non-Hispanic whites only. The top numbers are pretty much in line with what you're generally seeing in polls now, but the size of the sample provides much greater detail.
I'm a big fan of Pew Polls because of the number of persons they typically interview. "
I am NOT a fan of Pew because of the PEOPLE they interview.
REGISTERED VOTER Registered voter 42 31 9 2
54 47 6 1
5 2,097
Not a registered voter 29 20 8 1
58 46 11 1
13 407 PARTY ID Republican 86 71 13 2
9 6 3 0
4 612
Democrat 6 4 2 0
90 82 6 2
4 777
Independent 35 23 10 2
57 47 10 1
7 989
Explain how they can call this accurate when the repubs control the Senate, the House I think 37 state legislatures, etc, and they poll MORE dems, ind. and people who do NOT vote, then they do repubs?
Why HuffPost's Presidential Forecast Didn't See A Donald Trump Win Coming | The Huffington Post
Our model predicted that Democrat Hillary Clinton had a 98 percent chance of being elected. That was more pro-Clinton than most other forecast models (although all of them predicted a Clinton win). Our model said five Senate seats would shift from Republican to Democratic, giving Democrats a likely majority.
I'm a big fan of Pew Polls because of the number of persons they typically interview. This is the first one from them that I've seen on Trump's approval. Pew is known for non-partisan voter surveys that go into great depth with large samples. This total survey polled over 2500 people, so it allows for more detailed information than you normally see. In addition to a detailed breakdown for the total survey, they have the same data for non-Hispanic whites only. The top numbers are pretty much in line with what you're generally seeing in polls now, but the size of the sample provides much greater detail.
One other point of interest that I failed to mention in the OP was the differences by religious preference.
Total Protestant: 48% approve/45% disapprove (+3%) White N/H Evangelical Protestant 74% approve/20% disprove (+54%) White N/H Mainline Protestants: 48% approve/48% disapprove (0) Total Catholic : 38% approve/56% disapprove (-18%) White N/H Catholic 52% approve/42% disapprove (+10%) Unchurched ("Unaffiliated") 24% approve/68% disapprove (-44%)
Christian evangelicals remain solidly with Trump. According to the 2016 exit polls, evangelicals made up 26% of total votes cast and broke 80/16 (+64%) for Donald Trump.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 07-17-2017 at 12:47 PM..
2018, like every off year election, sees most casual voters stay home.
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