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Russia isn't stupid and they won't use nuclear weapons. We are discussing realistic threats, not pie in the sky scenarios.
Realistically the Russians would like to grab countries next to it's borders in order to form a buffer zone seperating them it the west.
It will most likely do this by invading countries on the premise of helping them in situations such as civil unrest or humantiarian aid as was the case in Crimea, however once the crisis is over Russian troops will not leave.
This salami slicing is different to all out war but is just as effective, as indeed is getting involved in different countries politics and trying to manipulate public opinion in favour of the candidate most sympathetic to Russias policies and goals, and the internet is an increasingly useful tool in respect of hacking and spreading certain types of propoganda and disinformation, thereby helping to cause further political instability and chaos. Just look at the chaos the Russians are currently causing in the US and no doubt the Russians were pleased by political events such as Brexit.
This is all part of the Russian long term game plan, and it is why NATO is investing in intelligence cyber warfare and quick reaction units that can go to a countries aid very quickly along with increased specialist units designed to provide and build stability in unstable regions.
Last edited by Brave New World; 06-29-2017 at 08:50 AM..
Russian tactics have always been geared toward massive forward firepower. The philosophy with armor and aircraft has been rant on build them big, mean, and build a lot of them. They like to hit hard and fast and secure their objective with overwhelming force. Their military suffered badly for quite a while because of money issues and a lot of their equipment fell into disrepair and their soldiers were not getting paid and thus weren't so motivated for Mother Russia as they had been in the past.
I certainly can't sell them short on fighting spirit though. A lot of Nazi found out the hard way how tough they can be at places like Stalingrad. As things are right now Russia has built back up considerably from 80s/90s levels but they're not ready to invade Western Europe. They'd take a pretty good pasting and lose a lot of men, armor and aircraft. It has to be taken into consideration that NATO forces are designed to cream waves of Russian armor.
The A10, Apache, Cobra, M1 tank and a whole slew of anti tank missiles and artillery are made with the Russian armor in mind. From aircraft to man portable Western forces are geared toward knocking out lines of T80s and accompanied infantry. Russian air power would also have its hands more than full. Europe and the UK can put up one helluva scrap without the US involved.
I don't think Russia is truly in any hurry to try and invade the West. But they do like to bluster.
The danger with Russia is not about a full armed invasion. It's the part in destabilizing countries around them and creating and supporting locals that they agree with. They have done it in Ukraine, Georgia and is what concerns many of those countries surrounding them that have large minority Russian populations.
Travel to the Baltic states and Finland and you would be amazed at the constant Russian led fake news attacking the governments.
Think of a splinter group such as the ones in Ukraine, popping up and being subversively supported by Russia in Lithuania, a NATO state.
Would NATO be willing to risk a nuclear showdown for Lithuania? According to Article 5 they should. But it becomes murky when the force is shadowy and not officially Rusdian troops
This is the real concern with Russia. A full scale offensive attack is highly unlikely and countries like Germany and Poland are prepared to hold them back. But an incursion into say, Estonia under the guise of protecting the Russian minority is not outside the realm of possibility. And Russian backed separatists groups and/or attempted coups are a real possibility in Montenegro Putin will try something like this if he perceives any hesitancy in honoring Article 5 from the larger NATO members.
One thing to keep in mind though is that Russia has using tactical nukes as part of established battle plans. That is a bit of a game changer.
I was an observer for Druzba '86 (a Warsaw Pact military exercise) and I saw no evidence that tactical nuclear weapons were incorporated into offensive operations. The Soviets (like the US) reserved the use of tactical nuclear weapons for defensive operations, mainly to prevent key military units from being over-run, or to prevent incursions by NATO Forces onto Russian soil.
More than 3,000 of Russia's tactical nuclear weapons are neutron enhanced radiation weapons with yields of 1 kt or 10 kt. Those are almost entirely missile-based artillery systems.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty
LOL A bit of an understatement.
One tactical nuke (shell) can clear a battlefield of all tanks, troops and aircraft.
No, Soviet tactical nuclear shells are 1 kt, just like American tactical 8"/203 mm shells were 1 kt. They might wipe out a tank company or infantry company, but it'll take more than one shell to render a battalion or combined arms brigade combat ineffective.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattks
Russia isn't stupid and they won't use nuclear weapons. We are discussing realistic threats, not pie in the sky scenarios.
Good point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NVplumber
Russian tactics have always been geared toward massive forward firepower.
No, Russian tactics are Objective-Oriented. The US abandoned Western War-Fighting Style in 1976, and began re-organizing its force structure to adopt the Soviet-Style Objective-Oriented War-Fighting, which everyone saw in during the 1991 Gulf War and again in the 2003 Iraq War.
Russia isn't a threat. Vladimir Putin's regime is. He got much better at exploiting the western democracies weaknesses. I may be wrong but a total war against NATO is not in the plans. He just chips away at different locations, using all tactics from manipulating the western media, to disinformation and hacking elections, from arming rebel groups to camouflaging the Russian army presence. He does it in Ukraine, Syria, and other places. He eliminates his critics at home and abroad.
The US, EU may be superior in terms of weapons and military, but are quite useless in terms of confronting someone like Putin.
Russian tactics have always been geared toward massive forward firepower. The philosophy with armor and aircraft has been rant on build them big, mean, and build a lot of them. They like to hit hard and fast and secure their objective with overwhelming force. Their military suffered badly for quite a while because of money issues and a lot of their equipment fell into disrepair and their soldiers were not getting paid and thus weren't so motivated for Mother Russia as they had been in the past.
I certainly can't sell them short on fighting spirit though. A lot of Nazi found out the hard way how tough they can be at places like Stalingrad. As things are right now Russia has built back up considerably from 80s/90s levels but they're not ready to invade Western Europe. They'd take a pretty good pasting and lose a lot of men, armor and aircraft. It has to be taken into consideration that NATO forces are designed to cream waves of Russian armor.
The A10, Apache, Cobra, M1 tank and a whole slew of anti tank missiles and artillery are made with the Russian armor in mind. From aircraft to man portable Western forces are geared toward knocking out lines of T80s and accompanied infantry. Russian air power would also have its hands more than full. Europe and the UK can put up one helluva scrap without the US involved.
I don't think Russia is truly in any hurry to try and invade the West. But they do like to bluster.
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