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Old 08-01-2017, 08:56 PM
 
Location: Alameda, CA
7,605 posts, read 4,834,826 times
Reputation: 1438

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
... And Trump's market outperformed Obama's during the first 70 days, until Mar 11. At that point Obama's market had fallen by 12% and Trump's had gained 5%. Look it up.

So why is the first 6 months all of a sudden all that important?........... It isn't. It's just as arbitrary as my 70 days.

One market "made" money that had been lost. The other is actually creating wealth.
You wrote that we should compare Obama's first 6 months to Trump's 6 months. I did just that. Turns out the markets did better in the first 6 months under Obama than under Trump.

//www.city-data.com/forum/49037878-post74.html

"Trump has had the job 6 months. So you have to compare with Obama's first 6 months. And Obama had a terrible first 6 months."
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Old 08-01-2017, 09:07 PM
 
Location: Alameda, CA
7,605 posts, read 4,834,826 times
Reputation: 1438
Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
Earnings are up for many, but revenue is pretty much flat....Automation, outsourcing, less compensation to workers etc...yippee...I bet that will be great over the next two decades.

Are you actually disputing the notion that QE has helped boost the stock market? You know too much about this subject and have too good of a reputation to push a fairy tale for partisan purposes.
I believe QE has had a positive affect on the economy. So in that sense, yes QE has resulted in boosting the stock market by assisting companies recovering from a near depression.

As for stock prices, the question is on the whole are stocks overpriced. Until the "Trump Bump" I would say no. Stocks were on the high end, but not exceeding historical levels. With the "Trump Bump" they have definitely entered a danger zone. Either their earnings will increase to support the prices being paid or eventually there were be a pull back.

What partisan purpose am I pushing?
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Old 08-01-2017, 09:10 PM
 
26,346 posts, read 14,952,283 times
Reputation: 14522
Quote:
Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth View Post
I believe QE has had a positive affect on the economy. So in that sense, yes QE has resulted in boosting the stock market by assisting companies recovering from a near depression.

As for stock prices, the question is on the whole are stocks overpriced. Until the "Trump Bump" I would say no. Stocks were on the high end, but not exceeding historical levels. With the "Trump Bump" they have definitely entered a danger zone. Either their earnings will increase to support the prices being paid or eventually there were be a pull back.

What partisan purpose am I pushing?
And QE buying up Billions worth of bonds every month over the course of years drove interest rates down and pushed many into more stocks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-f...194426366.html
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Old 08-01-2017, 09:11 PM
 
27,307 posts, read 16,180,034 times
Reputation: 12100
Quote:
Originally Posted by treasurefinder View Post
Overall I'm pretty flat. I'm made a killing in the stock market under Obama.
I did too by shorting the market.
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Old 08-01-2017, 09:27 PM
 
Location: Alameda, CA
7,605 posts, read 4,834,826 times
Reputation: 1438
Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
And QE buying up Billions worth of bonds every month over the course of years drove interest rates down and pushed many into more stocks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-f...194426366.html
I read the article already.

My point is were or are stocks overpriced? Did all the new buyers of stock or increased monetary supply drive stock prices up to unreasonable levels? On the whole, until very recently, I would say no.

Put it another way, would stocks be a good buy if you reversed out the 93% of the gain the author is claiming is due to the Fed. I would say many stocks would be a steal if you priced them at their 2008 levels+7%.
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Old 08-01-2017, 10:27 PM
 
Location: Vladivostok Russia
1,229 posts, read 857,115 times
Reputation: 608
Quote:
Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth View Post
Last 8 years (2009 - 2016) of Dodge Cox International
47.46 13.69 -15.97 21.03 26.31 0.08 -11.35 8.26
That is hardly terrible.

Dodge & Cox International Stock Fund (DODFX) Fund Performance and Returns

I don't think she was talking about both Obama's full four year terms in office. Only over the last couple of years.

If you look at the 10 year chart on the dollar, it was both weak and in a long term down trend before and after the crash.

In late 2013 it started to correct into a 3 year uptrend. About that time Obama started to support the strong dollar trend/policy as a weapon to weaken the price of oil so it would hurt countries like Russia, Syria, and Venezuala - which were either in the way or they wanted full regime change.

Since the dollar and euro are negatively correlated - Most funds/etfs heavly laden with euro denominated/diversified stocks suffer in performance when the currency takes a dive the way the euro did.

Not to mention, the entire european banking establishment during the dollars correction was completely unstable and under enormous pressure.

So yes, early and in the mid term of Obama's presidency when the euro was very strong, those etfs/funds performed fairly well. When the currency dove, many dove with it.

Last edited by At-Chilles; 08-01-2017 at 10:46 PM..
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Old 08-01-2017, 10:43 PM
 
Location: Vladivostok Russia
1,229 posts, read 857,115 times
Reputation: 608
Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
Obama wasn't the only person to preside over massive Trickle Down Economics pushing stocks upwards the past decade or so...many international stock prices did fine.

Shanghai equities roar as China floats QE-lite - Telegraph

https://www.economist.com/blogs/bany...itative-easing

https://www.theguardian.com/business...interest-rates

https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/europes-qe-quandary

Etc...
Every Presidency since Regan has presided over some type trickle-down/supply-side economics policy, whether in stealth mode or not

And we're not talking about individual european stocks here and there - we're talking about a diversified basket of euro-denominated stocks making up a fund or etf.
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Old 08-01-2017, 10:52 PM
 
9,428 posts, read 4,280,393 times
Reputation: 10466
Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC View Post
I'm just curious if you do, how your stocks have been doing since Trump has been in office. I see all of these up/down numbers on TV on the business channel but I'd like to hear some individuals say how they are doing personally with their stocks and if they are doing well, whether they would vote for Trump in 2020 because of a personal reason, like that. (Not interested in you telling us your personal fortune numbers, just whether you are doing better, a lot better, about the same, not so good.)

I don't see it any differently than your personal wealth improving because your taxes went down, your insurance is cheaper, your utility bills went down or you are making more money employment-wise (getting a job, getting your hours increased, getting a bigger paycheck) and those are all reasons people use to vote for someone.

So, how are you doing with your stocks and would it make you consider Trump in 2020 if you are doing well?
I own stocks. They were doing well before Trump got in office, they're doing well now, and in all likelihood, they'll be doing well after he leaves office. In any case, the president has limited ability to affect such things.

I didn't vote for Trump (or Clinton) in 2016 and it's far too early to tell who I will vote for in 2020.
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Old 08-01-2017, 10:57 PM
 
20,703 posts, read 8,472,156 times
Reputation: 14325
I wish I owned stocks. Too late now since conventional wisdom is Buy Low, Sell High.
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Old 08-01-2017, 11:16 PM
 
20,703 posts, read 8,472,156 times
Reputation: 14325
The Dems, RINOs and opposition media had better think twice about how committed they are to overthrowing Trump. They would be shooting themselves in the foot (aka bank account) if there were a coup d'etat.
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