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If the US were successful in its Assad house arrest/out of power goal, then the likeliest situation would be an insider in the existing military/political power structure taking over as Head of State. The status quo--the Syrian government aligned with Iran and Russia--would persist. This would be a solution negotiated primarily by Russia and the United States.
The US has been supporting Kurds at the expense of the Iraqi government from the start of the invasion. Turkey's voice is the only limit on US support for the Kurds. And the US has been increasingly uninterested in hearing from Turkey in the last 2 years. There is already a semi-autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq.
Your analysis on terrorism is not very rigorous. I would define as terrorists those who commit acts of terror. Acts of terror are politically-motivated acts of violence contrary to the laws of war and targeting non-combatants.
Your definition of terrorists groups would require any insurgency group in Syria (and probably the Middle East) be classified as a terrorist organization, something I'm fine with.
As for Assad's replacement I believe anyone else in the existing political structure would be more extreme than him. I know how he is imaged in our media but he is the most educated and most established leader in Syria. The Assad family has been ruling Syria with relative success for decades and bringing in a new leader will create a power struggle after we leave being as any other leader won't have the sweeping support and historical precedent Assad has.
I've said what I've had to say on the Kurds, personally I see the development of an autonomous state for them next to impossible (not that they don't deserve it) being as every leader the Saudis to the Iranians will fear this will promote more independence movements within their borders and else where.
Perhaps I'm wrong but I can't imagine our government actually following through on such a thing but if they do I'll be proven wrong.
Its about time. We've blown billions in that part of the world and what the hell have we gotten in return? Nothing. This is the best thing that could happen to us. Get to hell out of the ME, get off the oil tit. Lets start taking care of ourselves for a change.
Lets build a city in space or something cool for once.
Yes, you are. You are pretending the rebels we have helped are terrorists.
OK, let's try one more time.
As the article posted here earlier explained, that if you live in THAT part of the world, things actually work in reverse. That is you need to have an AUTHORITARIAN RULER to command EVERYONE ( be that Muslims or Jews, the Christians and any fraction in-between) to GET ALONG. Yep, that's what Assad has been doing all along, avoiding the "Saudi style theocracy," (for which I am sure he has been hated by more *pious muslims* in the region.) That is until a group of *disgruntled citizens* ( and they are usually of Sunni denomination, whaddayaknow - the same kind that rules Saudi Arabia,) started demanding "democracy." Which in terms of THAT region, means quite the opposite as we already established it. It means that people of one particular religious denomination can't stand the "authoritarian figure" sitting on top of the government, that doesn't let them feel "special." As special as they consider themselves being Sunnis - the one and only "true muslim religion." They might even tell you that it's "not about that," that they are "tired of Assad's clique, filling all top positions in the government or business," ( which is most likely true,) but I assure you that no matter what they'll say on a surface, deep down will always come to the same issue - i.e. Sunni Islam.
And if no one would be interested in Syria, no one would care about their "grief," but lo and behold - Syria ( and Assad) happened to be the top cards in geopolitical game of strangulating Russia, and so the rest of the *brilliant plot* follows. The *reliable allies* of the United States, the staunchest Democrats of them all - the Saudis and Qataris, send the mercenaries in, to help the "moderate rebels" in Syria to fight for "democracy."
All while American media cooks the stories about the "undemocratic Syrian regime" and sells them - hot and fresh like pancakes - to American public. And American public is buying those hot pancakes, following its Pavlovian conditioning of "no Democracy = bad guys." Who has time digging into all these plots, in-between job, family dinner, children's home works and the rest? No one, so let politicians do their job ( they are paid for that) and let media write their stories ( they are paid for that too.)
Meanwhile our "moderate rebels" in Syria supported by the US government, start feeling the brunt of the civil war, the fierce resistance of their compatriots, and absence of American boots on the ground. The latter in particular I suppose, makes them feel emotionally vulnerable and much closer to... you know, "not-so-moderate" rebels. Let's call them the Islamic radicals, or Isis, shall we? After all the radicals fight for the "holly cause" of Islam, and our "moderate rebels" fight for... oh yeah, the democracy. And since "democracy" is a very vague concept in the Middle East, while Islam is not, can you blame our "moderate rebels" when they feel like sharing those American-supplied Humvees ( and other useful equipment) with their Islamic bros, even if those Islamic bros might be a bit on a wild side?
So there you have it.
I understand Finn_Jarber that you hate Russia, and this whole plot to hurt Russian interests in the area sounds awesome, but think for a moment what kind of forces are unleashed ( and supported) by the US in the process of achieving this goal.
As the Russian proverb has it - "I'll burn my house down to show the bedbugs who is the boss."
Syria was never ours to be had. Assad and his government were (for years) the legitimate power of Syria and have been aligned with Russia and Iran for years. Now the US wants it so we arm terrorists to overthrow the legitimate government and throw Syria into chaos just to gain influence there and expand the empire.
If you are so concerned about Russia and Iran having influence there maybe you should do something about it instead of supporting arming terrorists which is what (as the pentagon has said) the FSA is, they are al-qaeda affiliates, this is a fact.
I don't believe the US wants chaos because it never turns out well, the best scenario would be a peaceful ending. If we walk away as appears to be the case you can bet that Iran will be in control of a good part of Syria either directly or indirectly. Assad and Syria will never be the same.
We are not going to attack Russia or Syria directly nor will they, Russia is doing exactly the same thing in Ukraine but in Crimea they were a little more obvious.
As the article posted here earlier explained, that if you live in THAT part of the world, things actually work in reverse. That is you need to have an AUTHORITARIAN RULER to command EVERYONE ( be that Muslims or Jews, the Christians and any fraction in-between) to GET ALONG. Yep, that's what Assad has been doing all along, avoiding the "Saudi style theocracy," (for which I am sure he has been hated by more *pious muslims* in the region.). That is until a group of *disgruntled citizens* ( and they are usually of Sunni denomination, whaddayaknow - the same kind that rules Saudi Arabia,) started demanding "democracy."
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Well, obviously that did not work in Syria, or they would not be having a civil war. It did not work in Lebanon, it did not happen in Iraq, and it did not work in Egypt, or Yemen, or Libya. Who told you only a torturing tyrant can get people to get along?
Last edited by Finn_Jarber; 07-25-2017 at 07:16 AM..
I don't believe the US wants chaos because it never turns out well, the best scenario would be a peaceful ending. If we walk away as appears to be the case you can bet that Iran will be in control of a good part of Syria either directly or indirectly. Assad and Syria will never be the same.
We are not going to attack Russia or Syria directly nor will they, Russia is doing exactly the same thing in Ukraine but in Crimea they were a little more obvious.
Iran and Russia have always been aligned with Syria, this is not a changing scenario.
We can't destroy the Country just so they can switch over to the US-Saudi lead alliance over the Russia-Iran one.
Iran and Russia have always been aligned with Syria, this is not a changing scenario.
We can't destroy the Country just so they can switch over to the US-Saudi lead alliance over the Russia-Iran one.
The destruction of Syria started well before our intervention, Assad greatly over reacted to protests by killing and torturing citizens that were involved in nothing more than peaceful protests. To date 500,000 Syrians killed, 12 million left the country and that has severe impact on Europe.
Normally a civil war ends when both sides had enough as it was with our civil war, but with so many countries involved in Syria it continues. The best scenario would be a peaceful negotiated agreement with all sides and we leave completely, I'm not optimistic.
Its about time. We've blown billions in that part of the world and what the hell have we gotten in return? Nothing. This is the best thing that could happen to us. Get to hell out of the ME, get off the oil tit. Lets start taking care of ourselves for a change.
Lets build a city in space or something cool for once.
It should be about time, but it happens again and again. Like Bosnia, Somalia, Iraq, Syria, Rwanda, you show some pictures of gassed or tortured people, and many in the American public who tout peace, are ok with unleashing our military to come to their rescue. I've worked in Defense most of my life, and I would rather see us spend our hard earned dollars on us, not them.
From history, most every time we get involved in the middle east and Africa, militarily, we pay it.
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