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As someone who would like to see the Democrats take both the House and the Senate, I can't say I disagree that much with the article. The Democrats are likely to pick up seats in the House, but its going to be pretty difficult to pick up enough seats to flip the House.
The Senate, the math is simply very difficult because of the amount of seats they are defending. 2012 was supposed to be a tough year for the Democrats in the Senate as well because of what they were defending and they actually picked up seats, but that also gave them even more to defend next year.
The Democrats lost control of West Virginia when the governor switched to the GOP. 26 states in full GOP control.
The Republicans had made great gains in West Virginia before this incident, but I think I should point out that the governor was a lifelong Republican before the last primary election when he switched to the Democrats, apparently to do an end-run around the favored Republican. This is not a new trick for a politician, but he did it well.
Jim Justice is no man of the people, he owns a 50,000 acre farm and a 15,000 acre hunting and fishing preserve. He owns coal mines with safety violations and unpaid taxes.
The man is a billionaire who has not been supportive of a Democratic agenda, so he was just a sleeper waiting to expose himself.
He does match up well with Donald Trump, they both have their own billion dollar best interests in mind.
So the Dems response to their bad map is "Trumplings!" As "cult!"
Hilarious
And it's why they have been devastated as a political party that's now left with the likes of Schumer, Waters, Warren, and Pelosi running things. Will be a long time before middle America goes back to this party.
Suburban Atlanta should have been a wake up call for them. 100s of 1000s are moving to places like GA, NC, Fla, etc year after year and the Democrats are absolutely failing to gain any traction.
The Republicans had made great gains in West Virginia before this incident, but I think I should point out that the governor was a lifelong Republican before the last primary election when he switched to the Democrats, apparently to do an end-run around the favored Republican. This is not a new trick for a politician, but he did it well.
Jim Justice is no man of the people, he owns a 50,000 acre farm and a 15,000 acre hunting and fishing preserve. He owns coal mines with safety violations and unpaid taxes.
The man is a billionaire who has not been supportive of a Democratic agenda, so he was just a sleeper waiting to expose himself.
He does match up well with Donald Trump, they both have their own billion dollar best interests in mind.
Actually he seems to match up well with Albert Arnold Gore Jr. Same part of the country. Uber rich. Family tobacco plantations, Zinc mines, Occidental Petroleum and a curiously well timed Apple stock gift and sale. And daddy's congressional connections did not hurt. Al Gore turned Climate Change into a cottage industry for himself.
I follow 538 all the time, great site for sports, politics, and overall statistical analysis of your everyday lives.
Nate Silver did get the election wrong, he had Hillary winning with a 76% chance. But, I will say that he was basing this on National Polls and in his last article before the election, he went on and on about herding, and how he felt some of the state polls were falling into a herd mentality of having HRC win by 4%.
Even if he couldn't see it, he had a gut instinct that the polls on the state level were not very accurate. He even changed the winning percentages the day of the election because he was concerned about all the state polls herding their numbers so nobody would be an outlier.
76% is not 100%. You can't really say that he got the election wrong. She won the popular vote by a lot--more than any other candidate has while losing the election. If just a tiny slice of her voters were in different spots, she would have won the election (I think you could move 80,000 voters or so to flip the EC). If anything, it seems that 76% was sound in light of the election results.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zzzSnorlax
If I say there is a 50% chance of getting heads on a coin when its flipped, and we flip a coin and get tails, that does not make my prediction "Wrong". Similarly, if I say there is only a 5% chance of rolling a 20 on a 20 sided die, I am also still not wrong when someone rolls a 20.
There are an awful lot of people putting their statistical illiteracy on display when they say the polls were "wrong" because they did not predict the correct outcome... the only way a poll can be "wrong" is if there were flaws in the polling methodology, or if the poll predicted some particular outcome at 100%. Otherwise it is the equivalent of telling me that I was wrong when I said there was a 5% chance to roll a 20, because they picked up the dice and rolled a 20 on the first roll.
I gotta say, as a person that deals with a lot of math and statistics on a day to day basis, perhaps the most annoying meme trend to come out of this whole thing is the "polls are wrong, fake news, hurrrr I dont understand statistics" trolls it brought out of the woodwork.
Thank you. There is just a 12.5% chance of getting heads three times in a row, but an event with 12.5% likelihood can, indeed, happen.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255
As someone who would like to see the Democrats take both the House and the Senate, I can't say I disagree that much with the article. The Democrats are likely to pick up seats in the House, but its going to be pretty difficult to pick up enough seats to flip the House.
The Senate, the math is simply very difficult because of the amount of seats they are defending. 2012 was supposed to be a tough year for the Democrats in the Senate as well because of what they were defending and they actually picked up seats, but that also gave them even more to defend next year.
It's not a secret that gerrymandering tilts the House map towards the Republicans. And that 2020 puts Democrats in a tough spot in the Senate. I predicted after the 2016 elections that Dems would lose 1 net seat in the Senate (2 losses & one pickup) while narrowing the gap in the House. I think the fuel will be higher turnout than typical for midterms based on the Trump's unpopularity. I think the Ds pick up Nevada, while the Rs pick up Indiana (if they find a decent candidate) and maybe N. Dakota or Montana (same). Manchin has proven very durable in W. Virginia. The Rs as a party are not making friends with voters with their health care agenda--and they aren't making friends with donors if they can't manage tax cuts for corporations (especially in combination with backing out of the TPP). That will impact campaign finances & voter predilections. Heller (especially) and Flake (to a lesser extent) endangered themselves with their health care votes.
76% is not 100%. You can't really say that he got the election wrong. She won the popular vote by a lot--more than any other candidate has while losing the election. If just a tiny slice of her voters were in different spots, she would have won the election (I think you could move 80,000 voters or so to flip the EC). If anything, it seems that 76% was sound in light of the election results.
Thank you. There is just a 12.5% chance of getting heads three times in a row, but an event with 12.5% likelihood can, indeed, happen.
It's not a secret that gerrymandering tilts the House map towards the Republicans. And that 2020 puts Democrats in a tough spot in the Senate. I predicted after the 2016 elections that Dems would lose 1 net seat in the Senate (2 losses & one pickup) while narrowing the gap in the House. I think the fuel will be higher turnout than typical for midterms based on the Trump's unpopularity. I think the Ds pick up Nevada, while the Rs pick up Indiana (if they find a decent candidate) and maybe N. Dakota or Montana (same). Manchin has proven very durable in W. Virginia. The Rs as a party are not making friends with voters with their health care agenda--and they aren't making friends with donors if they can't manage tax cuts for corporations (especially in combination with backing out of the TPP). That will impact campaign finances & voter predilections. Heller (especially) and Flake (to a lesser extent) endangered themselves with their health care votes.
How does gerrymandering explain that 35 Governors are GOP and only 15 are Democrat? You can't just say its smoke and mirrors or the russians that explains why the democrats are in bad shape.
And who outside of the far left base are the Democrats making friends with? Clearly the early elections that were fought vigorously by the democrats did not fall their way. Whatever one wants to say about Trump the Democrats are not giving any reason for someone to switch to their side. Just being anti-trump like the GOP was anti obamacare is not enough. And being for refugees, illegal aliens and transgendered military personnel is not going to win you anything. Most Americans feel left out of that equation.
And the popular vote with HRC if she won by 10 million it does not matter. The election as well as how both candidates campaigned were not based on the national popular vote. Well at least Trump seemed to get the need of the swing states. Hillary spent a lot of time in California locking up the national popular vote and getting her billion in donations from wealthy California liberals.
If you don't like the system change the constitution. But with the polarized nature of things and where the population centers are expect more electoral vote / popular vote divergence especially since Trump showed the GOP how to win this way.
How does gerrymandering explain that 35 Governors are GOP and only 15 are Democrat? You can't just say its smoke and mirrors or the russians that explains why the democrats are in bad shape.
And who outside of the far left base are the Democrats making friends with? Clearly the early elections that were fought vigorously by the democrats did not fall their way. Whatever one wants to say about Trump the Democrats are not giving any reason for someone to switch to their side. Just being anti-trump like the GOP was anti obamacare is not enough. And being for refugees, illegal aliens and transgendered military personnel is not going to win you anything. Most Americans feel left out of that equation.
And the popular vote with HRC if she won by 10 million it does not matter. The election as well as how both candidates campaigned were not based on the national popular vote. Well at least Trump seemed to get the need of the swing states. Hillary spent a lot of time in California locking up the national popular vote and getting her billion in donations from wealthy California liberals.
If you don't like the system change the constitution. But with the polarized nature of things and where the population centers are expect more electoral vote / popular vote divergence especially since Trump showed the GOP how to win this way.
Governors often diverge from Senate representation & electoral votes. The Democrats made up ground in the House & the Senate in 2016. They are trying to make sure that 24 million people keep their health insurance and that the average premium does not rise by 15-20% next year. That's a pretty good reason for people to support them. They will also provide a check on an out of control Republican President, which the Republicans in Congress have been reluctant to do.
I know the DNC is broke while the RNC is rolling in dough. I am just pissed off that the establishment Reps don't seem to appreciate why that is: Trump is President. They had better fall into line or I predict they will be 'primaried' by a pro Trump Republican candidate.
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