Prepare for the coming Trump recession

[Kevroqs]

Originally Posted by bawac34618

I've believed all along we are currently still riding on the fumes of the Obama economy.

You mean 95 million americans not employed, 20 trillion in debt, more people on government benefits, etc...

[marino760]

Originally Posted by bawac34618

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/artic...conomic-growth

I've believed all along we are currently still riding on the fumes of the Obama economy. The Trump slump will be kicking in before we know it. You can't run the country like a madmen and expect investors to have confidence in your government. Providing we survive North Korea, we are in for a rough ride economically over the new few years.

At it again are we? Take your medication and get some sleep. You'll feel better tomorrow.

[wallflash]

Predicting recessions in the US economy is like predicting earthquakes in CA. Even with no knowledge on the subject, if you keep saying one is coming long enough, you will eventually be correct.

[Nepenthe]

Originally Posted by evilnewbie

...I bet the OP sold zero of the investment portfolio while reporting economic doom...

OP is a regular Nostradamus, or maybe that's Chicken Little:

//www.city-data.com/forum/polit...ay-2018-a.html

A couple quick quotes from that thread:

Originally Posted by bawac34618

It's August 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average just fell below 6,000...

This is the most likely scenario...

Originally Posted by Nepenthe

You must be ecstatic right now. You stand to profit mightily from your ability to foresee the market dropping 73% in one year! Better get your margin account all ready now so you can work on buying Puts and inverse leveraged ETFs. Congratulations!

[At-Chilles]

Originally Posted by AnesthesiaMD

I think the plan of the people on the left is to just keep saying this until the next bear market, and then say "Look! It's Trump's fault."

Meanwhile, there will always be a bear market down the road, no matter who is president. A bull market can only last for so long before it corrects.

Anyone take to opportunity to read the minutes from the feds last meeting a few days ago?

Trump has said on numerous, numerous occasions he'd like to work with a weak dollar - it's in print everywhere.

The markets are starting to price in a rate hike for December, and the FOMC told us it's going to reverse QE and start reducing it's balance sheet starting in October by 10 billion a month and reaching 300 billion over the next 12 months.

This is supposedly good for the dollar but bad for further asset-price inflation - think real estate, stocks, etc.

The only problem is the dollar has seen a parabolic fall and is not receiving much of a bounce as yet.

So with the feds policy moving in the exact opposite of what Trump would like -- how could a future stock market decline and flat-to-falling market in real-estate be Trump's fault?

Trump's plan : Weak dollar, cheap money/low rates, further inflating asset prices = kick Clinton, Bush, Obama can down the road.

FOMC plan : Stronger dollar, rate increase/higher rates, reverse QE, unwinding balance sheet = attempting to somewhat deflate asset bubbles.

https://wolfstreet.com/2017/09/20/th...-on-a-mission/