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I've been watching this train wreck coming since 1992. Looks like it is pretty close now. Hats off to the OP for raising the issue. He's right; Lebanon looks like it is about to host the first round of the next Sunni-Shia boxing match.
Funny how history can turn on tiny decisions made decades ago. Twice the Shah of Iran was offered the opportunity to 'dispose' of Ayatolla Khomeini. Twice he refused, only to have Khomeini's followers oust the Shah. Khomeini returned to Tehran in February 1979 and immediately went about decimating the Iraninan government. Conservatively, they killed 35,000, many by firing squad on the very roof of the girls' school Khomeini commandeered as his home and office. Iran, by way of Hezbollah, has been the world's biggest exporter of terrorism ever since.
By 1983, Hezbollah actually existed, but its official name wasn't released until 1985. In 1983, its suicide bombers blew up the Marine Corps barracks on a Sunday morning in Beirut. Then the French barracks six minutes later. 241 and 58 dead, respectively. By 1985, Hezbollah gave up suicide bombings in Lebanon for a much more lucrative terror tactic: kidnapping. Up to and including the CIA Station Chief in Beirut, and that poor guy died after months of torture - and pneumonia. (Other groups continued the suicide bombing gig, but none with the success Hezbollah enjoyed. In fact, Hezbollah taught the others, including al-Qaeda, how to do them.)
Hezbollah went on to become a Lebanese political party - but it was always, and still remains, a wholly owned subsidiary of Iran. It launched two wars against Israel from Lebanese soil, propped up Syria's dictator and killed hundreds of US troops in Iraq with its EFPs. All were acts perpetrated by Iran in furtherance of its own foreign policy, carried out by its covert arm, Hezbollah.
That's the Readers Digest version. For a more complete accounting, read Chapter 2 of my forthcoming book.
What Iran has managed to do now is geopolitically surround Saudi Arabia. Get out a map and look at where Lebanon, Syria, southern Iraq, Iran and Yemen are vis a vis Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah has wormed its way into the Lebanese government, is propping up the Syrian government, has militias defending the Shia dominated Iraqi government, and is the Houthi rebels' primary source of support in Yemen. Sunni Saudi Arabia is effectively surrounded from the northwest to the southeast. A newly installed, 32 year-old crown prince is all it takes to call a spade a spade and decide to reenact Karbala all over again. After all, the Sunnis prevailed in October 680 AD. Youthful vigor unbridled by too many of life's experience is exactly why you don't let a kid in his early thirties run a major country. (Memo to North Korea...)
On the other hand, Iran's 'Islamic Revolution' is not at all about Islam, it is about Shia dominance of the region under Iran's leadership. Always has been. Even though Shi'ites make up a mere 6% of the House of Islam, Iran's 'Islamic Revolution' sure is about to stir up one really dangerous s***storm for the region.
Think also about all the rockets (50,000, last time I was there) Hezbollah has in Lebanon pointing at Israel. The history of the Middle East is replete with instances of diversion and distraction. Saudi pressures Hezbollah in Lebanon, which in turn launches yet a third war against Israel as a diversion. Iran then paints the House of Saud as being on the same side as Israel, which will upset many on the Arab street. I've heard rumblings about Israel becoming more concerned about Hezbollah of late. Maybe their intel - and their intel is usually first rate - read these tea leaves before we did.
On the domestic front, what's the price of oil these days...?
Yup, I think we live in interesting times. Glad I don't live there anymore.
I've been watching this train wreck coming since 1992. Looks like it is pretty close now. Hats off to the OP for raising the issue. He's right; Lebanon looks like it is about to host the first round of the next Sunni-Shia boxing match.
Funny how history can turn on tiny decisions made decades ago. Twice the Shah of Iran was offered the opportunity to 'dispose' of Ayatolla Khomeini. Twice he refused, only to have Khomeini's followers oust the Shah. Khomeini returned to Tehran in February 1979 and immediately went about decimating the Iraninan government. Conservatively, they killed 35,000, many by firing squad on the very roof of the girls' school Khomeini commandeered as his home and office. Iran, by way of Hezbollah, has been the world's biggest exporter of terrorism ever since.
By 1983, Hezbollah actually existed, but its official name wasn't released until 1985. In 1983, its suicide bombers blew up the Marine Corps barracks on a Sunday morning in Beirut. Then the French barracks six minutes later. 241 and 58 dead, respectively. By 1985, Hezbollah gave up suicide bombings in Lebanon for a much more lucrative terror tactic: kidnapping. Up to and including the CIA Station Chief in Beirut, and that poor guy died after months of torture - and pneumonia. (Other groups continued the suicide bombing gig, but none with the success Hezbollah enjoyed. In fact, Hezbollah taught the others, including al-Qaeda, how to do them.)
Hezbollah went on to become a Lebanese political party - but it was always, and still remains, a wholly owned subsidiary of Iran. It launched two wars against Israel from Lebanese soil, propped up Syria's dictator and killed hundreds of US troops in Iraq with its EFPs. All were acts perpetrated by Iran in furtherance of its own foreign policy, carried out by its covert arm, Hezbollah.
That's the Readers Digest version. For a more complete accounting, read Chapter 2 of my forthcoming book.
What Iran has managed to do now is geopolitically surround Saudi Arabia. Get out a map and look at where Lebanon, Syria, southern Iraq, Iran and Yemen are vis a vis Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah has wormed its way into the Lebanese government, is propping up the Syrian government, has militias defending the Shia dominated Iraqi government, and is the Houthi rebels' primary source of support in Yemen. Sunni Saudi Arabia is effectively surrounded from the northwest to the southeast. A newly installed, 32 year-old crown prince is all it takes to call a spade a spade and decide to reenact Karbala all over again. After all, the Sunnis prevailed in October 680 AD. Youthful vigor unbridled by too many of life's experience is exactly why you don't let a kid in his early thirties run a major country. (Memo to North Korea...)
On the other hand, Iran's 'Islamic Revolution' is not at all about Islam, it is about Shia dominance of the region under Iran's leadership. Always has been. Even though Shi'ites make up a mere 6% of the House of Islam, Iran's 'Islamic Revolution' sure is about to stir up one really dangerous s***storm for the region.
Think also about all the rockets (50,000, last time I was there) Hezbollah has in Lebanon pointing at Israel. The history of the Middle East is replete with instances of diversion and distraction. Saudi pressures Hezbollah in Lebanon, which in turn launches yet a third war against Israel as a diversion. Iran then paints the House of Saud as being on the same side as Israel, which will upset many on the Arab street. I've heard rumblings about Israel becoming more concerned about Hezbollah of late. Maybe their intel - and their intel is usually first rate - read these tea leaves before we did.
On the domestic front, what's the price of oil these days...?
Yup, I think we live in interesting times. Glad I don't live there anymore.
I do have my sources.
Yemen is already getting hammered and taken over by US backed forces.
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