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Traditionally, the party who captures the WH and has control over the legislature will lose seats in the mid-term elections.
Why?
It’s quite simple. The other party rarely flips, and those who vote for the party in charge are usually disillusioned over unkept campaign promises they counted on.
So when the GOP loses seats this n xt election, it shouldn’t surprise anyone.
I tend to think of it as a pendulum. Popular vote shows where the center of gravity is. Close popular vote and moderate compromise polices are the center. Large disparity in either direction indicates a shift in that direction is the center. The further the party in power pushes away from the center of gravity while in power, the larger the correction will be. In this case, the party in power started with a deficit, and has been very no compromise scorched earth in style along with being inept, I would be unsurprised by a large correction in the other direction.
Traditionally, the party who captures the WH and has control over the legislature will lose seats in the mid-term elections.
Why?
It’s quite simple. The other party rarely flips, and those who vote for the party in charge are usually disillusioned over unkept campaign promises they counted on.
So when the GOP loses seats this n xt election, it shouldn’t surprise anyone.
It is what usually happens.
They'll definitely lose seats, but it's no certainty they'll lose their majorities. Gerrymandering in 2010 took care of that. Democrats don't have a great map for 2018
True. But 2018 has bigger consequences....if Dems take House, get ready for Articles of Impeachment.
But they won't have the two thirds of the Senate necessary to make those articles stick, so Trump will join Clinton as people who got the articles passed by the House, but dropped in the Senate.
And that House thing actually depends on what the Dems would be willing to do to wreck the impeachment tradition given a majority. The vote last week was pure political theater knowing they had no chance at a winning vote, so 38 representatives got to be on record for their vote that Trump is a great big doo-doo head who they don't like.
Much as I loathe the Democrats and liberals generally, I do respect that politicians are first and foremost self-serving and greedy, and lowering the bar of "high crime and misdemeanor" to be "we have a majority in the House and the other party has the White House, and that is sufficient cause for impeachment" would set a dangerous precedent for their ability to hold power in the future. It's the same reason both parties talk hard about everything when they are in the minority, and almost never back it up with legislation once they have the majority, unless it involves free stuff for voters.
The impeachment dream is just that, a dream. Trump will only leave office after 4 years if he loses reelection, or 8 years because his time is up. He's not going to be impeached an actually removed from office by force.
They'll definitely lose seats, but it's no certainty they'll lose their majorities. Gerrymandering in 2010 took care of that. Democrats don't have a great map for 2018
I am for the dems, but they are truly stupid to allow for such gerrymandering. Also, the dems have a poor record of getting people out to vote. The young and the poor generally are either too lazy or too depressed to go out to vote. They need to learn how to galvanize their bases.
True. But 2018 has bigger consequences....if Dems take House, get ready for Articles of Impeachment.
Then get ready for President Pence. And incumbent Pence in 2020. About 73% of sitting Presidents win re-election.
But as far as impeachment goes.
We have seen that before with Clinton. You need 2/3rds of the senate to convict. It would mean about 17 GOP would have to vote yes. Just to impeach does not change anything as with Clinton. And as everything of late in Congress goes along party lines Trump may be impossible to remove from office.
Al Green (D) from Houston introduced one, and it was shot down. Many Democrats voted against.
It was/is premature. Wait until the Mueller investigation issues a report. If it is a scathing report, some GOP members in the Senate may be swayed.
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