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Old 08-07-2018, 08:35 AM
 
20,956 posts, read 8,571,701 times
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Hey, today.....the S&P is up exactly to where it was 7 months ago! MAGA. I can't get out of the way of this BOOM train!

Why...if the DOW goes up another thousand points, it will be where it was in January.

MAGA.

 
Old 08-07-2018, 08:53 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fumbling View Post
Isn't the S&P 500 total return index up around 7% YTD? I wouldn't say that's below average. Nasdaq is up around 13% YTD, that's well above average. When everyone thinks those returns are subpar, that's the kind of talk around the top of a market.
If you invested in the NASDAQ you are far behind the eight ball. Didn't it hit 4,000 in 1999? Even if you bought in at 2,000, the return in 22+ years is 6% compounded....of course these "revert to the mean/average" at some point, but still not a good investment over the decades.

Better off with the DOW or S&P - neither have gone above their highs from 6+ months ago, the DOW especially being way below it.

it goes without saying that the vast majority of IRA's and passive market investors (which is most of them) are not invested in the NASDAQ index.

I'd say with the recent upticks we are getting to about "average" returns. I certainly wouldn't start forum threads crowing about "hey, we might make this year what was made every years since 1928".....

One must keep in mind that the 10% historic rate includes the Great Depression - meaning the rate of return for the last 80 years would likely be much higher. Let me check.....

Sure - 17.5 and 18.2 are the YEARLY gains of the S&P for the 80's and the 90's - I knew I remembered generally big returns...on a constant basis! That's two decades.

Obviously, GW and the GOP fiscal policies destroyed that record and there was a lost decade. Now we are reverting to the mean....but perhaps not enough to make up for that lost decade.

A long term investor can't make ZERO for a decade and then claim things are great when he or she makes 10 or 11% for the next decade. I don't feel like doing the math, but those returns are quite low because the money didn't compound for the first decade. Suffice it to say the returns would be cut in 1/2 or more....over the 20 years, which is a more realistic (short, in fact) time frame.

Spurred on by this thread, I talked to Fidelity and they said if I send them a letter they will get me the returns from the 80's and 90's on my account. If nothing else it will be interesting...my guess is that the 11% was exceeded.

Unless Trump pushed a nuke button we are likely to see more of the same going forward. Eventually even the markets will know he's FOS....as they already do to an extent. Still, his chaotic ways are not good for many businesses do I do feel for those caught up in his game.
 
Old 08-07-2018, 08:57 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LearnMe View Post
I see you love this subject and unfortunately your comments tend to perpetuate this thread, the title of which drew me here because I always try to separate fact from fiction .
Don't assume I am doing anything other than pointing out the hypocrisy (or basic lack of knowledge) of the OP and the many others who constantly push this idea that, somehow and someway, things in the last while are anything but a continuation of how they have been for many years...and, in fact, for many decades.

It's always good to remind people of their folly. Maybe at some point they will - like you and I - develop a longer term view and not credit politicians for making the sun come up in the morning.
 
Old 08-07-2018, 10:26 AM
 
Location: Pyongjang
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Wow we are closing in on all time highs!
 
Old 08-07-2018, 08:29 PM
 
Location: NC
5,129 posts, read 2,575,290 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Don't assume I am doing anything other than pointing out the hypocrisy (or basic lack of knowledge) of the OP and the many others who constantly push this idea that, somehow and someway, things in the last while are anything but a continuation of how they have been for many years...and, in fact, for many decades.

The only thing you do is constantly show your lack of knowledge on the markets
 
Old 08-07-2018, 09:07 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mightleavenyc View Post
Wow we are closing in on all time highs!
You mean closing in on what we hit 6 to 7 months ago????

Financial reporting contains more Cons than a Day with Donald.

If the Dow is cut 30% in one year, you will see "Dow up" for months or years even tho it hasn't gone anywhere.

Dow 25.5 now - up from 11k in about 2000, represents less than a 5% compounded return. So this entire Century - even if you are at "new highs" or "record highs" you have made VASTLY less than the historical record.

To be conservative with what you SHOULD have made (or what the DOW might be at to be decent), we'd take 10K in 2000 and add 10% compounded per year....

That would be 55,000.

Of course, this 55,000 would not be MAGA since it represents the historical average. MAGA might be the 80's or the 90's where we averaged 15% or more....then we'd have a DOW at 144,000...

Again, financial reporting is one of the "fakest news beats" around....because they are all cheerleaders wanting you to take your money and invest it for poor returns. Just like Realtors always tell you how great the market is, right???

If I a am your financial manager and you give me a million.....and then ask me a decade later what is in your account, I will answer "it's a new record - the highest it's ever been"...even if my return for you has been 2% per year.

That's why I prefer real measurements. Not "new highs" but "how much did I make in 20 years?"
 
Old 08-08-2018, 07:50 AM
 
Location: Pyongjang
5,701 posts, read 3,196,638 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
You mean closing in on what we hit 6 to 7 months ago????

Financial reporting contains more Cons than a Day with Donald.

If the Dow is cut 30% in one year, you will see "Dow up" for months or years even tho it hasn't gone anywhere.

Dow 25.5 now - up from 11k in about 2000, represents less than a 5% compounded return. So this entire Century - even if you are at "new highs" or "record highs" you have made VASTLY less than the historical record.

To be conservative with what you SHOULD have made (or what the DOW might be at to be decent), we'd take 10K in 2000 and add 10% compounded per year....

That would be 55,000.

Of course, this 55,000 would not be MAGA since it represents the historical average. MAGA might be the 80's or the 90's where we averaged 15% or more....then we'd have a DOW at 144,000...

Again, financial reporting is one of the "fakest news beats" around....because they are all cheerleaders wanting you to take your money and invest it for poor returns. Just like Realtors always tell you how great the market is, right???

If I a am your financial manager and you give me a million.....and then ask me a decade later what is in your account, I will answer "it's a new record - the highest it's ever been"...even if my return for you has been 2% per year.

That's why I prefer real measurements. Not "new highs" but "how much did I make in 20 years?"
YTD S&P is up about 7%. Easily could beat 10 this year. That's following about 20% last year. These are good numbers. You keep mentioning the late January run, but you have to look big picture.
 
Old 08-08-2018, 08:00 AM
 
19,394 posts, read 6,434,664 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Hey, today.....the S&P is up exactly to where it was 7 months ago! MAGA. I can't get out of the way of this BOOM train!

Why...if the DOW goes up another thousand points, it will be where it was in January.

MAGA.
You can't just look at 2018 in isolation. The previous 16 months, since Trump's election, it's been up around 35% (depending on which index your consider). So big deal.....we had a slight pull-back after an amazing run-up - a run-up I think was a little too far, too fast. A pull-back here and there, amidst an overall upward trend, is healthy.

Also, I personally like the Russell 3000 index to get a fuller picture, since it includes such a broad and large range of stocks. It is up more than 7% YTD.
 
Old 08-08-2018, 10:38 AM
 
20,956 posts, read 8,571,701 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rachel976 View Post
You can't just look at 2018 in isolation. The previous 16 months, since Trump's election, it's been up around 35% (depending on which index your consider). So big deal.....we had a slight pull-back after an amazing run-up - a run-up I think was a little too far, too fast. A pull-back here and there, amidst an overall upward trend, is healthy.

Also, I personally like the Russell 3000 index to get a fuller picture, since it includes such a broad and large range of stocks. It is up more than 7% YTD.
I agree 100%, which is why I earlier quoted 5 year, 10 year and since 2003. Based on that we are doing average.....right?

It's all OK, but calling slow and steady some kind of NEW MAGA is what gets on my nerves...having followed the market closely for 40+ years, I hate seeing people misled.

Meantime, a lot of bull analysts are saying a pullback is due. What then?

"According to Ned Davis Research's Ed Clissold, there's a high probability a record year-end rally will give way to a painful 2019.

"You could be looking at the first 20 percent-plus decline in the S&P since the financial crisis," the firm's chief U.S. strategist said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now."

His worst-case scenario is a 30 percent plunge next year.

"Our primary list of concerns is on the earnings front," Clissold said. "Earnings growth north of 20 percent isn't sustainable, especially when you're nine years into an economic expansion."

20% would wipe out 100% or more of the MAGA gains......they are already not so hot.

The point is...well, a number of them. Chaos coming from the WH does screw some things up....probably puts a cap on how high things can go. We don't know what that same Chaos will do when things head down - history is funny that way. Let's say Trump is indicted or impeached or does crazy things (pardons everyone, fires Mueller) right at the same time the downward trend happens?

On one hand it's crazy to say Trump makes the markets (one look at the slope upwards since 2008 shows differently - it is fairly steady).

But it is just as wrong to say a guy like him can't make things worse. I'll bet Atlantic City investors, banks, contractors, bondholders and everyone else involved with Trump kept thinking "it can't get worse" as he empire was going broke...but, guess what? It did.

I'm still with Buffet...I am a bull on the USA and the world in general. People need products and services and our production is becoming more efficient and cleaner (in the long run). So call me a Bull - but one who just may exist the market to a large degree until the Orange One stops beating his chest.
 
Old 08-09-2018, 08:15 AM
 
34,300 posts, read 15,517,048 times
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-...dist=bigcharts

Bullish market participants believe that quarterly results have been stellar and the domestic economy is sufficiently strong to take aim at new highs, even as the bull market approaches its 10th year.

Naturally, for the bears everyday and every market is Armageddon.

Some ways to win. Buy the lows and sell the highs or ride it out.

10th year = stale yellow light ?

Last edited by phma; 08-09-2018 at 08:25 AM..
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