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With 11% being my return for 3,5,10,15 or 20 years it tough to say things are better or worse. They are largely the same - but, of course, if we are asking whether the promised "forgotten man" is seeing anything...the answer is a definite no.
Also, my take is that the economy - without Trump - is so strong that the market would normally easily make a 15-20% or so this year. Trump really can't help the economy much, but he can hold it back...or, even worse, destroy it to some level.
Anyone who doubts that should think about the nuclear button. Would that affect the world? Of course! Same with many lesser "weapons" the POTUS can wield.
What you say Trump can do. ( but hasn't ) Obama did do.
The goalpost don't move no matter party or President. The only thing that moves is peoples opinion and they can have a different way to set the goalpost or have moving goalpost.
For example are you talking time or price or both.
Its mostly not comparable to say 1.5 years = 8 years.
Its these kinds of things that get argued. That's mostly politically motivated.
Its in the past and not something I'm all that concerned with.
I can't go back and take advantage of what happened.
Its history so its not unimportant either.
What?!?!?!
Is that the long way of saying this bull market happened mostly under Obama's watch?
Is that the long way of saying this bull market happened mostly under Obama's watch?
Your bull escapes. The bull market isn't over is it ? Its an unknown until it ends.
If you were to look at the DOW price chart. You would see it took Obama 4 years to retrace and get to a level where it was when he was elected.
One way to look at it is compare the first 2 years on the chart of both Obama and Trump.
Pick the best then. The market price movement looks best under which President ?
Kind of foolish to make meaningless comparison when conditions aren't equal.
That's political argument and my point.
I don't agree with your top 1% premise, but otherwise I agree 100%. So, do market watchers. So, yet another argument for the Trump influence on the current up market. Headwinds, like Fed wind down of balance sheet and rising overnight interest rates, yet the markets continue barreling along.
This too shall end, as bull markets always do. Yet, amazing what fiscal policies, (tax package and regulatory reform), by Pres Trump's administration has doe to extend and invigorate not only the U.S. market in the case, but the overall economic picture.
Quote:
"Keep in context how weird it is to have the longest bull market in equities in the context of the weakest economic expansion of all time, and how do you square that circle?" he asked Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "It's because of the long arm of the central banks."
Yet another recognition of how the overall economy is doing. All from Mr Trump's fiscal actions.
Quote:
"There's no doubt, that like others, we're currently benefiting from a very strong consumer environment, perhaps the strongest I've seen in my career," Target CEO Brian Cornell said on his company's second-quarter earnings call on Wednesday.
Trump said, that if he were to be impeached, "everybody would be very poor."
"I don't know how you can impeach somebody who's done a great job," Trump said, adding that if he were to be impeached, the "market would crash."
"Everybody would be very poor," he said.
When the trade negotiations are settled if Trump only gets 25% improvement it will have a very positive effect. Could the V.P complete the negotiations if he became President and continue the growth. Hum...…...Maybe, maybe not, the unknown. He is a canned politician so he might have a different policy.
I don't agree with your top 1% premise, but otherwise I agree 100%. So, do market watchers. So, yet another argument for the Trump influence on the current up market. Headwinds, like Fed wind down of balance sheet and rising overnight interest rates, yet the markets continue barreling along.
This too shall end, as bull markets always do. Yet, amazing what fiscal policies, (tax package and regulatory reform), by Pres Trump's administration has doe to extend and invigorate not only the U.S. market in the case, but the overall economic picture.
I wish people would think this through just a bit more carefully...
Who doesn't know that reducing taxes, especially for businesses big and small, helps to stimulate the economy? Obviously, when people or businesses can keep/spend more of what they're earning, especially in an already growing economy, "fuel" is added to that economic "fire," at least initially, but! What are the trade-offs?
Any nit wit politician can win favor by suggesting we'll all pay less taxes without addressing the trade offs, and of course most people have no idea what those trade-offs are! Additional problem is that the trade-offs and/or negatives are very hard to quantify or make clear to the average American. Nothing like the simplicity of less taxes coming out of a paycheck.
I won't bother explaining further, but to use an analogy that might help those more objective "creative" juices flowing, imagine you work for a company and the boss tells everyone in a meeting that everyone is going to get a raise! Everyone cheers, everyone loves the boss, but really? What about the fact the company is already in debt? What about the future? The children? What about the fact that a very small percentage of the people working for the company are already getting most of the company income earned, with benefits most employees don't enjoy, company car? Should everyone be cheering when most the people working for the company are barely making ends meet, even with the new raise?
A simple analogy to address a very complex collection of factors that truly matter when it comes to the health and well being of our country, for us, our children and their children, the great majority of Americans. Who is benefiting from Trump's roll back of taxes and environmental regulations really? Don't care? Don't know? A bit of both I think, especially when it comes to Trump supporters.
"Can't have the cake and eat it too" as some like to say...
Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco Ltd.:
“There are two reasons why: 1) We have already gotten the best of his agenda -- tax reform and deregulation. Other elements of his agenda which he is currently pursuing, particularly his trade policies, are not supportive of growth and actually worry many business leaders. 2) Tax reform is the gift that keeps on giving. It will add to GDP growth for years to come -- in fact, the CBO projects it will have an increasingly positive impact on GDP growth in the next several years. Also, if he were to be impeached, Mike Pence would assume the mantle and he has a strong track record of stimulating growth in Indiana. We can’t forget that the stock market is surprisingly resilient when monetary policy is accommodative, and it arguably is still accommodative.”
Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. in London:
“The market isn’t hinging on anything substantial that hasn’t already been carried through. The markets have largely rallied on tax reform and we’ve seen that reflected in company earnings. But if there’s political instability and the U.S. economic growth slowed significantly, that would have global implications.”
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