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Old 11-14-2018, 09:06 AM
 
Location: Denver CO
24,204 posts, read 19,191,156 times
Reputation: 38266

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Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
Here we go !!! DOW down over 400 points early.

President says stock market is rattled by prospect of Democratic ‘harassment’

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tru...dist=bigcharts

Trump said the stock market is being hurt by the prospect of Democratic lawmakers “harassing” him.
Big headache for the markets.
wow, he really is a narcissistic little beyotch, isn't he? You'd think he would have learned in the past couple of years that the world does not actually revolve around him now that he's out of the cocoon of Trump Tower, surrounded by sycophants who are paid to reinforce his fake idea that he's the center of the universe.

 
Old 11-15-2018, 10:22 AM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,664,723 times
Reputation: 14050
To those who say no POTUS has an effect on the stock market......

You are wrong....unless you claim a POTUS has no effect on trade, which is what the stock market is based upon!

"Trade war, what is it good for? (Apple Computer and why it is dragging the Market Down)
The first reason that Kuo cited was "negative impacts on consumer confidence from the trade war, especially in the Chinese market."
The Chinese market is an important one for Apple."

(example - above in quotes from an analyst).....

Saying a POTUS has nothing to do with the markets is folly. There are some moves and some cases where - of course - factors outside his or her influence have some sway.

But who can doubt that the trade wars (talk of), tariffs and other such BS emanating from the Great One is causing us all to lose money (or not make as much, which is the same)????

Saying a POTUS has nothing to do with markets is "whataboutism" and "false equivalence" combined, specialties of propagandists. All arguments are not equal and many statements contain truth.

As many here have noted, if the DOW was 30K we KNOW that Trump and the OP here and millions of others would take the credit. Yet here we have a fairly obvious cause and effect...and some say "nothing to do with it"?

Sorry, not the truth.
 
Old 11-15-2018, 10:53 AM
 
Location: NC
5,129 posts, read 2,595,148 times
Reputation: 2398
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post

You are wrong....unless you claim a POTUS has no effect on trade, which is what the stock market is based upon!


No, it isnt. Markets are based on future expected value of something.
 
Old 11-15-2018, 11:00 AM
 
12,772 posts, read 7,972,696 times
Reputation: 4332
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
To those who say no POTUS has an effect on the stock market......

You are wrong....unless you claim a POTUS has no effect on trade, which is what the stock market is based upon!

"Trade war, what is it good for? (Apple Computer and why it is dragging the Market Down)
The first reason that Kuo cited was "negative impacts on consumer confidence from the trade war, especially in the Chinese market."
The Chinese market is an important one for Apple."

(example - above in quotes from an analyst).....

Saying a POTUS has nothing to do with the markets is folly. There are some moves and some cases where - of course - factors outside his or her influence have some sway.

But who can doubt that the trade wars (talk of), tariffs and other such BS emanating from the Great One is causing us all to lose money (or not make as much, which is the same)????

Saying a POTUS has nothing to do with markets is "whataboutism" and "false equivalence" combined, specialties of propagandists. All arguments are not equal and many statements contain truth.

As many here have noted, if the DOW was 30K we KNOW that Trump and the OP here and millions of others would take the credit. Yet here we have a fairly obvious cause and effect...and some say "nothing to do with it"?

Sorry, not the truth.
With such an obvious mis-statement up front that you are basing your argument on, you completely lack any credibility on the topic.
 
Old 11-15-2018, 11:20 AM
 
Location: Middle of the valley
48,518 posts, read 34,807,002 times
Reputation: 73728
I totally agree with her, and I'm not sure how you cannot.

The tariffs have an effect on the economy and the stock market, and negatively.

On the flip side, the corporate tax cuts have an positive, albeit, short lived, effect on the economy.

It's all tied together. That's why the stock market kept changing direction when Trump said talks were good with China, and then his staff said the opposite.
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Old 11-15-2018, 11:26 AM
 
12,772 posts, read 7,972,696 times
Reputation: 4332
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikala43 View Post
I totally agree with her, and I'm not sure how you cannot.

The tariffs have an effect on the economy and the stock market.
Funny, you say you agree with her, and then you immediately follow up by saying something completely different. An "effect" (your word) is worlds different than "based on" (her words) something. This doesn't even get into the fact that some laws, tariffs, and other agreements make waves through the economy for years, if not decades after they are passed. One person being given credit or blame for all of it, and especially over such short periods of time is nothing but people coming up with excuses to cheer for their team.
 
Old 11-15-2018, 11:31 AM
 
Location: Middle of the valley
48,518 posts, read 34,807,002 times
Reputation: 73728
To me that is semantics, but I see what you are saying.

I also agree that the full effects of economic decisions are seen many years down the road.

There are short term effects and long term effects.

I know the changes are hurting my pocket book, my 401(k) is not looking as good, and the price for building the house we want went up 20K. So the short term effects for me are bad, and I don't see how ratcheting up the deficit is going to help anyone, now or in the future.

But you won't find me making and declarative statements of the long term effects, it's way to complicated and above my pay grade. Do I think it will be positive? No. But I'm fine with being wrong.
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My posts as a Mod will always be in red.
Be sure to review Terms of Service: TOS
And check this out: FAQ
Moderator: Relationships Forum / Hawaii Forum / Dogs / Pets / Current Events
 
Old 11-19-2018, 07:29 AM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,664,723 times
Reputation: 14050
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
Funny, you say you agree with her, and then you immediately follow up by saying something completely different. An "effect" (your word) is worlds different than "based on" (her words) something. This doesn't even get into the fact that some laws, tariffs, and other agreements make waves through the economy for years, if not decades after they are passed. One person being given credit or blame for all of it, and especially over such short periods of time is nothing but people coming up with excuses to cheer for their team.
Ah, now we are getting into dictionary definitions!

It would be like trying to carefully explain to Trump why he is wrong on so many Nationalist policies. You'd try to explain the actual facts and outcomes, but he couldn't and wouldn't get it. Then you'd just have to say "you suck at economics" and be done with it.

At this point few of us can deny that 2018 will not be a "great" or "yuge" year for the markets. Why? If Trump was a "great businessman" and even able to shepherd an economy that was ALREADY BOOMING, this would not be so. But he muddied the waters and many don't want to drink.

Now Goldman is forecasting lower growth altogether:
"Goldman predicts 2.5 percent and 2.2 percent growth in the first two quarters of 2019, respectively, but then just 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent real GDP growth in the final two quarters."

This is despite the FREE TRILLIONS that have been additionally borrowed and given away...that's free GDP. So imagine the economy without this money...close to zero growth, and certainly not double digit stock markets.

Getting back to the OP, we should measure using historical norms.....

10% on the DOW - par for the course....
14% plus on the DOW - very good...and somewhat normal for many of the Clinton and Obama (and other) years.
20% on the DOW - extremely good

ALL of these figures have to make up for years where the DOW has no growth or even negative movement. For example, if the DOW was down 10 or 20 or even 30% (and it sometimes is), then 14% is nothing amazing as much of it is making up for lost ground.

Hey, I wish everyone good luck. The fly in my ointment is that I won't have much in taxes this year since my portfolio didn't do well. Of course that means my nest egg effectively shrunk. Thanks Trump!
 
Old 11-19-2018, 07:53 AM
 
12,772 posts, read 7,972,696 times
Reputation: 4332
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Ah, now we are getting into dictionary definitions!

It would be like trying to carefully explain to Trump why he is wrong on so many Nationalist policies. You'd try to explain the actual facts and outcomes, but he couldn't and wouldn't get it. Then you'd just have to say "you suck at economics" and be done with it.

At this point few of us can deny that 2018 will not be a "great" or "yuge" year for the markets. Why? If Trump was a "great businessman" and even able to shepherd an economy that was ALREADY BOOMING, this would not be so. But he muddied the waters and many don't want to drink.

Now Goldman is forecasting lower growth altogether:
"Goldman predicts 2.5 percent and 2.2 percent growth in the first two quarters of 2019, respectively, but then just 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent real GDP growth in the final two quarters."

This is despite the FREE TRILLIONS that have been additionally borrowed and given away...that's free GDP. So imagine the economy without this money...close to zero growth, and certainly not double digit stock markets.

Getting back to the OP, we should measure using historical norms.....

10% on the DOW - par for the course....
14% plus on the DOW - very good...and somewhat normal for many of the Clinton and Obama (and other) years.
20% on the DOW - extremely good

ALL of these figures have to make up for years where the DOW has no growth or even negative movement. For example, if the DOW was down 10 or 20 or even 30% (and it sometimes is), then 14% is nothing amazing as much of it is making up for lost ground.

Hey, I wish everyone good luck. The fly in my ointment is that I won't have much in taxes this year since my portfolio didn't do well. Of course that means my nest egg effectively shrunk. Thanks Trump!
Say what you mean, and mean what you say. Dictionary definitions are how we baseline and have a real conversation with no grey areas for people to be able to back track on.
 
Old 11-19-2018, 07:57 AM
 
Location: Midwest
38,496 posts, read 25,800,800 times
Reputation: 10789
My 403B lost over 2% in 2018!
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