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“The monthly average over the previous three months has been an impressive 254,000 jobs added,” said Mark Hamrick, the chief economist for Bankrate.com, “Don’t be surprised if we see something less robust. That doesn’t necessarily signal a dramatic change in the trend for the job market or the U.S. economy
December and January reports are always more fudge than fact initially. They knocked about 100,000 jobs off of the December report. I expect to see a substantial downward revision to this one as well. Doesn't matter though. Jobs are a lagging indicator. There is a good deal of worrisome news on the economic front and a recession in the next 18 months is almost a given.
December and January reports are always more fudge than fact initially. They knocked about 100,000 jobs off of the December report. I expect to see a substantial downward revision to this one as well. Doesn't matter though. Jobs are a lagging indicator. There is a good deal of worrisome news on the economic front and a recession in the next 18 months is almost a given.
“But this won’t change the Fed’s calculus. Also, jobs are a really bad lagging indicator of future economic activity. If you want to trade and time recessions using jobs numbers, you’ll lose a lot of money,” he said, adding that the Fed is more focused on other indicators that show inflation and inflation expectations falling in recent months.
New jobs report is out. What you make of it is up to you.
LOL, for eight years all we heard from you guys was that the 11.6 million jobs that were created during Obama's terms were all part time burger flipping jobs.
LOL, for eight years all we heard from you guys was that the 11.6 million jobs that were created during Obama's terms were all part time burger flipping jobs.
Its past time to admit it. He's yesterdays fish wrap.
For a recession signal, the short EMA of the UER would have to form a trough and then cross its long EMA to the upside. Alternatively, the UERg graph would have to turn upwards and rise above zero, or the 19-week rate of change of the UER would have to be above 8%.
Currently, the trajectories of the unemployment rate's short and long EMA are both upwards and nearing a cross, UERg is approaching zero, and the 19-week rate of change of the UER is also near the critical level.
Forward simulations of the model shows that if the future unemployment rate remains at 4.0%, or reduces, the model does not signal a recession. However, if the unemployment rate should rise to 4.1% in the coming months then the model would then signal a recession.
Obviously the government shutdown raised the rate in January, but only by 0.1 percentage points. It had already been rising a bit the previous few months. And it would take just another 0.1 points to signal a recession, which seems to be in the realm of possibility even taking into account the shutdown.
What in the world is going on ?
Photo captures the Dems reaction to this up leg that never seems to end.
Time to shake it off Dems and get in the game.
Sounds like Realtors. Only once or twice in my entire life have they told me that it's NOT the time to buy or sell.
My "ask" is when we are going to get back to where we were a year ago in Jan (26.6K) ? I made up some losses recently, but am still down 3.9%, whereas I expected to be up 6-12% in even a "decent" year. That's a big difference. First year in memory (since GWB Depression) that I've seen a "lost year" in my own very diverse portfolio.
December and January reports are always more fudge than fact initially. They knocked about 100,000 jobs off of the December report. I expect to see a substantial downward revision to this one as well. Doesn't matter though. Jobs are a lagging indicator. There is a good deal of worrisome news on the economic front and a recession in the next 18 months is almost a given.
Remember, Uber is employment....even if you are losing money and don't know it. That's well over a million "jobs" right there. Even the highest average estimates put many of the "sharing economy" jobs at $8 to $12 an hour...at most. Many are well lower when all is said and done.
What in the world is going on ?
Photo captures the Dems reaction to this up leg that never seems to end.
Time to shake it off Dems and get in the game.
say it’s time for investors to become “aggressive buyers.
Some people never learn:
Quote:
Originally Posted by phma
President Trump is absolutely the greatest on the economy. Dow breaks 25,000
They say it still has room to run !!!!
Go ahead 401K make my day !!!
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