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Interesting how this data came out while trump was at Davos bragging about American growth.
I think it has less to do with that and more to do with the time of year. January tends to be the time to review previous year's performance.
Trump's appearance at Davos is ceremonial. At this point world leaders and their business leaders know exactly what has happened in the USA in the last 10 years economically and what the predictions are.
... The top statutory corporate tax rate has been falling since the early 1950s. The top corporate tax rate was 52 percent throughout the Eisenhower administration—17 percentage points higher than the current top rate of 35 percent. U.S. GDP grew by almost 4 percent annually in the 1950s compared with a 1.8 percent growth rate in the 2000s. On the surface, it would appear that more robust economic growth is associated with higher corporate tax rates. Further analysis, however, finds no evidence that either the statutory top corporate tax rate or the effective marginal tax rate on capital income is correlated with real GDP growth.
Now, the reality that analysis missed is that, the farther back you go, the faster US population was rising. THAT is why GDP growth in the 50's - 80's was high. GDP growth has been trending downward for decades, and the major reason for that is because population growth has been slowing for decades. That Trump is scaring off a lot of immigrants is only going to compound the problem. Couple that with a slowing of productivity growth that we've been seeing since around 2000, and you simply aren't going to get 50's-80's style economic growth. Ain't gonna happen.
There are many factors that impact GDP growth, few of which have anything to do with the presidency. But I do think that the stock market will continue to rise, especially after the tax cuts this quarter.
Pretty much.
Not that I think he's done anything that will hurt the economy, and the tax cuts should lead to some limited stimulation... it's just that the amount of growth needed to pay for the damn cuts is so high that we will have a long term problem when/if we don't meet these marks.
Those expecting some big economic boom this year from Trump were ... well, they were expecting too much. I've already noted that job growth in 2017 slowed to a 6-year low. Today, Q4 GDP came out at a "meh" 2.6%. And the year-over-year average was even more "meh."
"...Real GDP increased 2.3 percent in 2017 (that is, from the 2016 annual level to the 2017 annual level),
compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in 2016 (table 1). ..."
And while that was better than the 1.5% in 2016, that was less than the 2.9% in 2015 and less than the 2.6% in 2014. (source)
More of the same.
1% point is 10 Trillion dollars added into the economy.
In all seriousness though, most of the employment and stock market gains happened under Obama, and GDP growth can only go so far.
Now most of that growth happened in Democratic strongholds, while GOP strongholds haven't been feeling it, since their economies are reliant on manufacturing and natural resources, industries not doing well right now.,..so for them the economy has been bad for awhile. And the truth is if they are not willing to move, it will not get better.
Now, the reality that analysis missed is that, the farther back you go, the faster US population was rising. THAT is why GDP growth in the 50's - 80's was high. GDP growth has been trending downward for decades, and the major reason for that is because population growth has been slowing for decades. That Trump is scaring off a lot of immigrants is only going to compound the problem. Couple that with a slowing of productivity growth that we've been seeing since around 2000, and you simply aren't going to get 50's-80's style economic growth. Ain't gonna happen.
I look forward to most Trump lemmings on here ignoring this factual post while spewing more silly drivel with no basis in reality.
I look forward to most Trump lemmings on here ignoring this factual post while spewing more silly drivel with no basis in reality.
If it doesn't come from Trumps tweeter feed, it's fake nooooze.
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