Good News: Pennsylvania Gerrymandering Appeal Rejected by U.S. Supreme Court

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by MikMal

dsjj251, I think the map in the article below will show otherwise. Only the 3rd District is highlighted but you can clearly see the other districts as well.

The district exists to create 2 majority minority districts, not to box out republicans as the surrounding districts are D+ 28 , D+26, D+16, and D+14.


I think people forget that the most republican areas of the state are the 2 panhandles which are geographically separate and have just over 1.1 million residents combined(not enough for 2 congressional districts)
.

You would actually have to purposefully gerrymander Maryland to create a second Republican district.

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by dsjj251

The district exists to create 2 majority minority districts, not to box out republicans as the surrounding districts are D+ 28 , D+26, D+16, and D+14.


I think people forget that the most republican areas of the state are the 2 panhandles which are geographically separate and have just over 1.1 million residents combined(not enough for 2 congressional districts)
.

You would actually have to purposefully gerrymander Maryland to create a second Republican district.

To be fair the 6th is certainly a gerrymander and a fairly drawn district would be likely Republican. There really is no reason to connect the western panhandle with Montgomery County. With that said a non-gerrymandered Maryland likely only nets the GOP one seat. A non gerrymander in Pennsylvania could net the Democrats 3-5 seats.

[cuebald]

Originally Posted by Smash255

The Legislature has been Republican for quite some time and was in charge of redistricting including this wonderful one

Looks like the floor of the set of an 80s slasher movie.

[Smash255]

For those interested here is the Court Opinion

http://www.pacourts.us/assets/opinio...inion.pdf?cb=1


The "Goofy Kicking Donald Duck" 7th district has gotten most of the attention, but a bunch of other districts are a mess, below is the whole state as well as a closeup of SE PA

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by Smash255

To be fair the 6th is certainly a gerrymander and a fairly drawn district would be likely Republican. There really is no reason to connect the western panhandle with Montgomery County. With that said a non-gerrymandered Maryland likely only nets the GOP one seat. A non gerrymander in Pennsylvania could net the Democrats 3-5 seats.

I can't find precinct data for Maryland but looking at a map and population, the 6th only has 500-600,000 residents in the western panhandle in those 5 counties. So you either have to add parts of either Montgomery county,Howard county, or Baltimore County all of which are 2 to 1 or more Democratic .

The 3 areas of Maryland that are Republican are low in population and spread far apart.

Maryland is one of the few states where they could draw perfectly shaped districts with straight lines and honestly come out with all 8 districts being democratic because of where the population is .

Looking at Pennsylvania , maybe Republicans new they would lose and that is why so many there aren't running for re election.

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by dsjj251

I can't find precinct data for Maryland but looking at a map and population, the 6th only has 500-600,000 residents in the western panhandle in those 5 counties. So you either have to add parts of either Montgomery county,Howard county, or Baltimore County all of which are 2 to 1 or more Democratic .

The 3 areas of Maryland that are Republican are low in population and spread far apart.

Maryland is one of the few states where they could draw perfectly shaped districts with straight lines and honestly come out with all 8 districts being democratic because of where the population is .

Looking at Pennsylvania , maybe Republicans new they would lose and that is why so many there aren't running for re election.

The pre-2010 district had this district in the western Panhandle and then further east in northern Maryland with portions of the northern Baltimore suburbs of Baltimore and Harford Counties. This one puts those areas in the heavily GOP 1st and also doesn't contain all of the western Panhandle. It shoves parts of strongly GOP Frederick and Carroll County into the heavily Dem 4th in exchange for running the 6th into heavily Democratic Montgomery. This move is not quite as extreme, but along the same lines of what the PA Legislature did with heavily Democratic Reading by having tentacles of the heavily GOP 16th reach up into Berks to grab it to keep it out of the far more marginal 6th district.

Granted some changes would have been needed due to population shifts, etc and the district likely would have moved a few points more Democratic as a result even under a fair map compared to 2010, but this would be a likely GOP district in any fairly drawn map. With that said, as mentioned the Republican strength in Maryland is generally heavily concentrated and a fair map likely only nets them 1 seat. This is likely why the GOP is focusing their challenge on the 6th alone rather than the entire state. Several other states would be likely to have multiple seat flips to the Democrats under a fair map.


Anyway back to PA, the state legislature was given a deadline of tomorrow to have their maps submitted to the Governor so we will see what if any revised maps they have shortly.