So says Jonathan Chait after reviewing the latest generational survey by Pew Research, which was released today.
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For obvious reasons, the broadly liberal demographic trends in American politics have received much less attention since the 2016 election. Yet the fact remains that America is politically sorted by generations in a way it never has before. The oldest voters are the most conservative, white, and Republican, and the youngest voters the most liberal, racially diverse, and Democratic. There is absolutely no sign the dynamic is abating during the Trump years. If anything, it is accelerating.
It is hard to focus on this trend at a moment when Republicans have full control of government, and are heading into an election where gerrymandering gives them a large advantage in maintaining Congress. But this fact runs headlong against a much longer deterioration of the conservative position within the electorate. Many conservatives supported Trump precisely because they were panicked about this trend. So far, Trump is merely accelerating the demise they feared.In the long run, as John Maynard Keynes quipped, “We are all dead.” But over the long run, the Republicans are especially dead.
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New Survey: Young Staying Liberal, Conservatives Dying Off
The most recent Pew Research Survey has more detail about the generational divide. It shows that the old saw that young people would naturally grow more conservative as they age, or that their Democratic loyalties were an idiosyncratic response to Barack Obama’s unique personal appeal, has not held. Younger voters have distinctly more liberal views than older voters:
Pew survey: Party ID by Generation:
Rather than growing more conservative as they grow older, millennials as a group are becoming more liberal.
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”Millennial voters have generally favored Democrats in midterms, and that trend continues. But, comparing early preferences this year with surveys conducted in previous midterm years, Millennial registered voters support the Democrat by a wider margin than in the past.”
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Gen Xers are basically holding steady in partisanship. In 2014, GenXers favored Democrats by 9%; at this point in 2017 they are D+10.
On Trump Job Approval by Generation, Trump is underwater by 38%; Gen Xers by -21%; Boomers by -7%; Silents by -2%; overall -20 (37% approve with 57% disapprove)
Silent Generation (age 73 to 90) (11% of adult pop; 79% n/h white)
43% Democrat/57% Republican
Boomer Generation (age 54 to 72): 29% of adult pop; 72% n/h white
48% Democrat/46% Republican
Gen X (age 38 to 53 ): 26% of adult pop; 62% n/h white
48% Democrat/43% Republican
Millennials (age 22 to 37): 28% of adult pop; 56% n/h white
59% Democrat/32% Republican
Post-Millennials (age 18-21) 5% of adult pop; 53% n/h white
Generic 2018 Party Preference by Generation:
Silents: Democrats 45%/Republicans 51%
Boomers: Democrats 48%/Republicans 45-
Gen Xers: Democrats 51%/Republicans 41%
Millennials: Democrats 62%/Republicans 29%
By generation; % agreeing that “racial discrimination is the main reason many blacks cannot get ahead”:
Silents: 28%
Boomers: 36%
GenXers: 40%
Millennials: 52%
% saying that “immigration strengthens America”:
Silents: 47%
Boomers: 56%
Gen Xers: 66%
Millennials: 79%
http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/...ican-politics/
Regarding the early indications of the leanings of post- millennials, a PRRI survey at the time of the 2016 election showed that among respondents aged 15 to 24 years of age, 57% favored the election of Hillary Clinton. At the same time, the annual ci election by Scholastic Magazine of school children favored Clinton over Trump by 52% to 35%. In contrast to conservative beliefs, the post-millennial generation’s political orientation is still forming, since the lion ‘s share of that generation have not yet reached their political formative years or young adulthood, but the oldest members of that generation who have reached adulthood have shown no such sharp break with millennials.
Linked is a short podcast by Bill Frey of Brookings discussing the above.
https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-ep...nguage_slug=en
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