Larry Kudlow is leading contender to replace Gary Cohn as Trump's top economic advisor (marijuana, Obama)

[Mike from back east]

Kudlow is a terrible choice. He kept pumping Bush's tax cuts and never relented like David Stockman did when faced with the truth that trickle down does not work and tax cuts do NOT pay for themselves.

Even as the economy collapsed Kudlow kept pleading "give it time" as if 2001 to 2007 wasn't enough time. I say give Kudlow time, 25 years to life in Leavenworth, for his lies and mendacity on GOP voodoo economics.

Despite Kudlow's stunning failures, CNBC rewarded him with his own TV show in January 2009 as the economy was losing 700,000 jobs per month. He is what the GOP considers its best and brightest. Heaven help us. Again.

By 2012, Kudlow found new grounds to test his theories: Kansas, where he got GOP Governor Sam Brownback to implement sweeping tax-cuts to produce faster growth. Very wrong move. Brownback’s program has proven a comprehensive failure, falling short of all its promises and leaving the state in such dire fiscal turmoil that the GOP-dominated state legislature raised KS taxes to pay the state's bill, and overrode Brownback's veto to put the tax hikes into force.

Any economic forecaster is bound to make some wrong predictions. But Kudlow hasn’t made a handful of failed guesses; he's in the grip of a comprehensively failed worldview and devotion to upper-bracket tax-cutting is his theology. His incorrect predictions are met with denial or a shifting of the original predictive grounds.

But Kudlow’s crank theories have a key advantage over the crank theories propounded by, say, the Jim Jones cult: They confer massive windfall benefits upon society’s richest individuals. His unwavering fealty to supply-side theology is the very characteristic that proves his ideological bona fides and qualifies him to give Trump advice — and the content of Kudlow’s advice can be known in advance with absolute certainty, and will not waver no matter what happens in the world.

Even in the face of repeated failures, Kudlow keeps his "useful idiot" place in a Republican Party that's forever devoted to a doctrine of upper-class tax reduction. The sales pitch may change, and other aspects of the product may change, too, but the core strategy never does. If you put Republicans in office, the Kudlows of the world will be designing their policy agenda, and the agenda will be designed around lower taxes for rich people. And Kudlow will insist it worked.

Kudlow is a lunatic. In 2002 he opined that invading Iraq would raise the stock market a few thousand points. Really people, that's lunatic territory. You can read his article at this link:

Kudlow was fired from Bear Stearns for cocaine addiction. He'll probably share Trump's murderous desire to kill "drug dealers."

If you saw Kudlow today on CNBC he said the 2nd phase of "tax reform" would be worked on this year. That's GOP double-talk about chipping away at everyone's Medicare and Social Security which Ryan has to cut in order to help pay for tax cuts for the 1%. If we don't stop the GOP we will end up with nothing.....millions are already there, more are coming.

[desertdetroiter]

Originally Posted by BeerGeek40

Kudlow is a good choice

For what?

[WRnative]

Trump and Republicans insist that their tax bill won't increase the federal budget deficit, and Kudlow will be shouting (literally) the validity of that forecast to all that will listen. Kudlow also expects a strengthening dollar as a result of the tax cuts. All of this view is the opposite of most excellent economic prognosticators such as Jeffrey Gundlach. Be afraid, be very afraid.

Here's a detailed analysis of Kudlow's track record.

New Trump Economist Kudlow Has Been Wrong About Everything

Mushrooming deficits is not a prescription for a stronger dollar and lower inflation in the eyes of any competent market player.

<<GUNDLACH: I DO THINK THE DOLLAR'S GONNA REMAIN WEAK. IT STARTED TO RALLY AND IT'S BEEN RALLYING A BIT, AND GENERALLY IT'S CORRELATED WITH HIGHER BOND YIELDS, BUT THE DOLLAR TRENDS ARE PERSISTENT AND THEY TEND TO GO ON FOR SIX OR EIGHT YEARS. THE CYCLES ARE QUITE PREDICTABLE THAT WAY. AND THE DOLLAR PEAKED OUT – IT BOTTOMED OUT IN 09, AND THEN IT PEAKED OUT BASICALLY IN 2016, SO IT'S ABOUT AN EIGHT-YEAR CYCLE. AND NOW IT HAD A BAD YEAR LAST YEAR. USUALLY A BAD DOLLAR YEAR STARTING A TREND IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BAD DOLLAR YEAR, AND SO FAR THAT'S HAPPENING. THE DOLLARS DOWN ON THE DXY 2.5% YEAR TO DATE. I DO THINK THE DOLLAR GOES LOWER, AND YOU'RE RIGHT, THAT'S COMPLETELY CONSISTENT WITH THE COMMEDITIES THESIS.
WAPNER: NOW— AND WHEN – SOME ARE TALKING –
GUNDLACH: AND BY THE WAY, ONE LAST THING, JUDGE, THAT'S ALSO CONSISTENT WITH HIGHER INFLATION IN THE UNITED STATES. THAT'S ANOTHER VARIABLE THAT WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHER INFLATION DOWN THE ROAD, IS IF THE DOLLAR IS ALREADY DOWN 15%, TRADE WEIGHTED BASIS AND ANOTHER LEG DOWN, CERTAINLY IS NOT GOING TO BE DEFLATIONARY.>>

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/23/cnbc...ner-today.html

[Goodnight]

I cant wait to see the 2nd phase of tax reform with Kudlow, the wealthy need a staunch defender.

[le roi]

Originally Posted by BeerGeek40

Kudlow is a good choice

Kudlow's main accomplishment is managing to stay on television while being consistently wrong.

I've long been baffled why people watch his show; why he's allowed on television at all. I don't even have words for this appointment.

[Metsfan53]

Originally Posted by Goodnight

I cant wait to see the 2nd phase of tax reform with Kudlow, the wealthy need a staunch defender.

I read some of his points for this new "middle class" cut they are starting to hawk- through a cut to capital gains tax. It would be laughable if it weren't real life....I look forward to the usual Trump lemmings flooding us on here about how Joe six pack will benefit so much now from cap gains tax cut 5%.

[Metsfan53]

Originally Posted by le roi

Kudlow's main accomplishment is managing to stay on television while being consistently wrong.

I've long been baffled why people watch his show; why he's allowed on television at all. I don't even have words for this appointment.

when you're the lightweight to Jim Cramer you don't belong in the big chair.

[WRnative]

Lots of laughs beginning at the 4:00 minute mark. Kudlow roast begins at the 5-minute mark; do NOT miss it!!!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FQf...j&index=2&t=0s

Did Seth Myers just say that Kudlow is an idiot?

[Astral_Weeks]

Larry Krudlow is full of C-r-u-d.

Philip Tetlock wrote a book called "Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction" and in the book he points out what an imbecile Krudlow is. His statements on the non-recession well into 2008 are just embarrassing.

https://books.google.com/books?id=hC...Kudlow&f=false

[WRnative]

While Kudlow was still praising the Bush "Goldilocks" economy, even as the Great Recession, was underway in 2008 (see the Seth Meyers clip in post ), Jeffrey Gundlach as early as 2006 began sending up warning rockets:

<<Jeffrey Gundlach was one of the few. The celebrated bond-fund manager sounded alarms about housing in 2006, later warned that the subprime market was a “total unmitigated disaster” about to worsen, and anticipated a severe economic downturn, to boot. Who better, then, to consult about potential dangers lurking in today’s relatively placid investment world?>>

For non-subscribers, Barron's is available in most libraries.

Unlike Kudlow's muddled supply theory convictions, Gundlach's thought process clearly is rooted in reality:

<<The Federal Reserve has moved into tightening mode. In fact, it has returned to autopilot. The Fed previously had pledged that monetary policy would depend on the strength of economic data. Last year it switched gears and indicated it would tighten credit as much as four times this year even if the data don’t change. That could be dangerous when the Fed is also engaged in quantitative tightening [not buying new bonds when old bonds mature, thereby shrinking its balance sheet] that could add up to $600 billion in fiscal 2019.

And, thanks to the new tax law, it is plausible that the federal budget deficit could double to $1.25 trillion in the fiscal year that begins in October. We could be looking at roughly $2 trillion of government paper being issued in fiscal ’19....

I expect the market to close the year down. I had thought the trouble would come later in the year, but rates rose pretty quickly. I don’t have a ton of conviction about interest rates. The bond market and the dollar got oversold and are working that off, but neither seems able to rally, which isn’t a good sign. It suggests the dollar’s next move will be down and the next move in rates will be higher. With correlations having become positive, the rise in bond yields likely will lead to a decline in stocks. >>

Gundlach in the interview reiterates his expectation of a weakening dollar and perhaps a breakout to the upside in gold prices, 180 degrees the opposite of Kudlow:

<<Kudlow, an economist and CNBC contributor, has demonstrated a Trump-like willingness to ignore taboos. In a rare departure for someone about to take a senior government job, he questioned Federal Reserve monetary policy and even offered a trading recommendation: “I would buy King Dollar and I would sell gold.”>>

Larry Kudlow: New Advisor Quick to Hop on Trump Express | Fortune

Both Trump and Kudlow see 4 percent economic growth rates for several years that will mitigate the risk of higher deficits.

Economists and seasoned market veterans like Gundlach, who actually has a track record of successful forecasts and money management, don't share the Trump/Kudlow "New Goldilocks" scenario. They seemed a more extreme version of the Bush economic policies that turned a roughly balanced budget into gaping deficits, all while the federal government is much more indebted than earlier in this century.

<<For Furman, the greater flaw in the president’s budget is the “crazy” high growth rate assumed by the White House. And even under the president’s growth scenario, Trump’s deficits still race ahead, breaking into the range of 5 percent of GDP — or higher.

“It’s going to be 5 percent of GDP next year; it’s heading up to 7 percent of GDP,” Furman said. “That’s the largest deficits as a share of our economy outside a major war or a major recession. So it’s just not sustainable, period.">>

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...deficit-404588

Here's Kudlow on the federal budget deficit outlook as a percentage of GDP:

<<Larry Kudlow, the Reagan administration economist who advised the Trump campaign, said the U.S. economy can handle the trillion-dollar deficits that are forecast to result from President Trump’s budget proposal released on Monday.

“The deficit is going to be 5.5 percent of GDP for fiscal 2019. Over 10 years, it’s going to average about 3.5 percent,” Kudlow said on business channel CNBC, which pointed out that the deficit’s portion of economic output will be smaller than it was during the financial crisis and parts of the Reagan era. “In the Reagan years, we ran 6 percent to finance tax cuts and military spending. I wouldn’t panic over that.”>>

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/econ.../13/id/843165/

Who else besides Trump believes that budget deficits as a percentage in the wake of Trump/Republican tax cuts will plummet over the next decade? More importantly, Kudlow is oblivious to the fact that the U.S. at the start of the Reagan administration was the world's greatest creditor nation. Now, the U.S. is the world's greatest debtor nation, and much more indebted than during the Reagan administration, not even considering unfunded liabilities.

Be afraid, be very afraid.