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He will sweet talk the SK authorities. He will sweet talk Trump. He will then offer a deal on his nukes....... but only if the US pulls out of SK.
Pressure will grow on SK leadership to run down US involvement in SK. Eventually, the US will leave SK.
Kim will then start trouble again, and maybe decide now is the time for a war, using his nukes to frighten the SK. The same nukes he was supposed to have disposed of.
Kim is a very smart, ruthless guy. He is looking to the long game.
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Originally Posted by shorman
Because he is playing Trump for a fool and getting everything he wants. Nk now has nukes and the ability to produce more. Kim is getting a meeting with potus, something his father and grandfather both wanted. Kim is now a world leader on equal footing with his peers, that is a huge deal. Sanctions will be lifted and us troops exit or downsize. Trump fell right into the trap that other us presidents avoided for decades.
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Originally Posted by ditchoc
He pretty much got what he wanted. Recognition as a world nuclear power and leader. Now he is a member of the 'big boy' club.
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Originally Posted by DC at the Ridge
His nuclear research facility collapsed. He's dealing with it. He has friends left on the planet. And he'll see what he can get out of the United States while he pretends he can still pursue nuclear weapons, while our President will hopefully get the intel on Kim's nuclear research and negotiate appropriately.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dspguy
My concern is that Kim Jong Un is going to pull what JFK did to the Soviets during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
One of the bargaining chips JFK used to de-escalate was to remove missiles from Turkey that the Soviets didn't know were actually obsolete. They posed no threat but JFK turned it into a valuable bargaining chip.
So, there were these reports that the nuclear testing facility collapsed. Essentially, that means that NK won't be doing any nuclear tests any time soon. Why not turn that into a bargaining chip? "We won't do any testing here in exchange for something of value." So he is trading something of no value to get something of value.
I think that Trump (or probably other presidents) will take the political win over an actual strategic win. He wants to be able to say "look what I did!" and he'll give something up of value for something that has no value.
Look at what just happened today. Those prisoners were released (which is great news by the way). That was Kim Jong Un offering a concession. Which is great. Trump pretty much said so himself. And he'll have to make a concession in turn. When we see the terms, I'll be more excited about it.
But I'm going to predict that this will be Trump's Iran Deal.
Yes to all of the above.
Indeed, right now to the world Kim Jong Un is looking like the peacemaker, the concession-maker.
At the same time, he's already gotten a major goal that the Kim regime has always wanted--an equal place at the table with the US.
And he's gotten that by concessions that mean nothing: Giving up testing when he's unable to do any testing anyway and turning over three hostages (it's not as though they had been spies).
Now, when the talks end up fruitless--which they will, because Kim's idea of "denuclearization" means the US must promise never to attack North Korea--he will be able to point to Trump as the cause of failure, because he's already shown himself to have been the good guy going into the talks.
And, yes, this will cause the South Koreans to put even more pressure on the ROK government to push out US troops.
And, yes, this will cause the South Koreans to put even more pressure on the ROK government to push out US troops.
Older South Koreans -- those who lived through the Korean War, and to a lesser extent those whose parents did and passed down the stories -- will do the exact opposite. They know exactly what it is that the American troops are protecting them from. However, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the younger and more idealistic South Koreans did indeed do just what you're saying. It may be that they will have to learn the same lesson that their elders did: that the United States is a far better friend to them than their "brothers" up North will ever be, as long as they're under Kim's sway.
Older South Koreans -- those who lived through the Korean War, and to a lesser extent those whose parents did and passed down the stories -- will do the exact opposite. They know exactly what it is that the American troops are protecting them from. However, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the younger and more idealistic South Koreans did indeed do just what you're saying. It may be that they will have to learn the same lesson that their elders did: that the United States is a far better friend to them than their "brothers" up North will ever be, as long as they're under Kim's sway.
Older South Koreans want nothing more than unification. They want to see their relatives in the north before they die. They don't want to be under the domination of Kim Jong Un, but they also deeply desire reunification.
Right now, it's all grins and handshakes between Kim and Moon, and from their point of view, this new relationship is purely a matter of Moon and Kim doing their own diplomacy with the Chinese also on board. They do not count anything Trump has done as useful; they count Trump so far as having been counter-productive, although they are willing to allow trump to retain "face."
How they will feel a year from now after the talks have failed will depend on who looks at fault for the failure.
I suspect Kim is going to be very cagey in making it look to the South Koreans like Trump is the cause of failure.
Older South Koreans want nothing more than unification. They want to see their relatives in the north before they die. They don't want to be under the domination of Kim Jong Un, but they also deeply desire reunification.
These statements are not mutually exclusive. Sure, they want to see their relatives. But they also don't want to be under Communist domination. They've been there and done that, and they know what it was like. They may well support unification, but it very definitely would depend on who the ultimate power would be in the unified country.
I'm more disappointed in those among the younger South Koreans who want to kick the U.S. military out. Do they not have eyes? Do they not see that the freedoms and the creature comforts that they enjoy are entirely absent in the North? Do they not understand that the same thing would happen to them if the North were to be victorious over them? Why then do they advocate for getting rid of the very force that is most responsible (alongside their own ROK military) for keeping them from losing all that they have? (I'm not talking about all young South Koreans; only the ones who seem so eager to get us out of there.)
These statements are not mutually exclusive. Sure, they want to see their relatives. But they also don't want to be under Communist domination. They've been there and done that, and they know what it was like. They may well support unification, but it very definitely would depend on who the ultimate power would be in the unified country.
I'm more disappointed in those among the younger South Koreans who want to kick the U.S. military out. Do they not have eyes? Do they not see that the freedoms and the creature comforts that they enjoy are entirely absent in the North? Do they not understand that the same thing would happen to them if the North were to be victorious over them? Why then do they advocate for getting rid of the very force that is most responsible (alongside their own ROK military) for keeping them from losing all that they have? (I'm not talking about all young South Koreans; only the ones who seem so eager to get us out of there.)
Generally speaking, not that many are so keen on US forces being in Korea (beyond the businesses that are directly profiting from US military business).
They weren't all keen on it when my father and uncles were in South Korea, they weren't keen on it when I was in South Korea. Nobody likes foreign military forces on their territory.
If Kim and Moon make a convincing argument to the South Koreans that they can get along without US troops on the peninsula--and, btw, the ROK military is more than a match for the DPRK--then the South Koreans will accept it.
Right now, it's all grins and handshakes between Kim and Moon, and from their point of view, this new relationship is purely a matter of Moon and Kim doing their own diplomacy with the Chinese also on board. They do not count anything Trump has done as useful; they count Trump so far as having been counter-productive, although they are willing to allow trump to retain "face."
Then they're just plain stupid, because the last 6 months has seen more progress towards peace and reunification than the previous 20 years.
Unification isn't going to happen. Does anyone think Kim is going to step down and allow his personal kingdom to be part of a free Korea?
The best case scenario is that North and South have an agreement not to be at war anymore and no nukes allowed.
Kim caved because Trump didn't give in to Kim's demands while Kim was test firing missiles over the Sea Of Japan.
What were Kim's demands?
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