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No other country or countries can come close to the amount of trade China does with the U.S. Then you can throw the EU in there as well. There's little doubt Xi told Kim to play nice and find a way to peace or else China will no longer support them to the extent they currently do. China had already told Kim that if he sent a missile into the U.S. first, North Korea would not have Chinese support.
Without The U.S. buying Chinese goods, China has virtually no economy. Thousands of factories throughout China would close. Like you said Xi isn't stupid. Who will fill the void if the U.S. dramatically reduces buying Chinese goods leaving China behind? Maybe Nigeria?
Putin puts Russia first as well. He doesn't want to see a global economic collapse either because of a sorry little country named North Korea.
The US and China are very co-dependent economically. If the US stops buying Chinese goods, China stops buying US goods. Don't kid yourself, it would devastate our economy as well. Of course China has explained to Kim the perils of N Korea taking unilateral action against the United States. But that does not mean that China and its support for Kim has gone away. It hasn't. China is vested in N Korea because it shares a border, in ASIA, with N Korea. N Korea is a bulwark. China isn't going to forget that.
As for Russia, Putin is salivating over the opportunities Trump is giving him. Putin's ambition has always been to return Russia to its previous influence levels as a superpower. Trump's withdrawal after withdrawal after withdrawal from multi-national treaties is creating a vacuum that both Russia and China are rushing to fill.
Trump can't be manipulated like Clinton, Bush and Obama were. Rocket Man knows Trump isn't kidding and that he is Xi Xinping's buddy.
There's little doubt Xi and Trump like each other. They both went beyond being just cordial in their meetings and neither has had anything at all negative to say about the other.
The US and China are very co-dependent economically. If the US stops buying Chinese goods, China stops buying US goods. Don't kid yourself, it would devastate our economy as well. Of course China has explained to Kim the perils of N Korea taking unilateral action against the United States. But that does not mean that China and its support for Kim has gone away. It hasn't. China is vested in N Korea because it shares a border, in ASIA, with N Korea. N Korea is a bulwark. China isn't going to forget that.
As for Russia, Putin is salivating over the opportunities Trump is giving him. Putin's ambition has always been to return Russia to its previous influence levels as a superpower. Trump's withdrawal after withdrawal after withdrawal from multi-national treaties is creating a vacuum that both Russia and China are rushing to fill.
Points well taken but China has much more to lose. They have a huge trade surplus with the U.S. From a recent article
"The gap between Chinese goods imported to the United States and American goods exported to China rose to $375.2 billion last year, up from $347 billion the prior year, data released Tuesday morning by the Commerce Department showed."
Their economy has much more to lose though no one would win.
There's little doubt Xi and Trump like each other. They both went beyond being just cordial in their meetings and neither has had anything at all negative to say about the other.
Utterly meaningless. Xi couldn't care less about Trump. Xi's sole concern is how China can gain by whatever Trump does.
Utterly meaningless. Xi couldn't care less about Trump. Xi's sole concern is how China can gain by whatever Trump does.
I never said their personal relationship dictated their political moves, and it's never meaningless to have a good personal relationship between the leaders of the U.S. and China.
Points well taken but China has much more to lose. They have a huge trade surplus with the U.S. From a recent article
"The gap between Chinese goods imported to the United States and American goods exported to China rose to $375.2 billion last year, up from $347 billion the prior year, data released Tuesday morning by the Commerce Department showed."
Their economy has much more to lose though no one would win.
China has been working diligently to expand it's influence and products in the Middle East and Africa. It has developed some strong relationships there that would cushion its economy in the scenario you've described. Trump seems to believe that the US economy doesn't need foreign markets. And that's true, if you reduce the American economy radically. A smaller US economy could squeak on in the future, but we would all be much poorer. And that's not ideal given the fact that we are facing a major economic hurdle, the baby boomers. As they retire, it may seem that it would be good thing, fewer people in the employment ranks, but the problems they create are myriad, and the health care costs alone could cripple our economy (I believe they will if we don't find a way to control the costs). While China also has an issue with a bubble in its population, that bubble was minimized because of China's population control laws, and China is in a much stronger position to deal with health care costs.
So I'm not sure that their economy has so much more to lose. Regardless, the pain would be enormous on both sides, and Xi has secured his position and his government. The United States can't implement the same kind of programs as China can, to deal with the fallout of conflict with China, because the next President can simply back us out of such programs.
More than that, do you see how Putin could gain by a conflict between China and the United States?
Why would South Korea want a united Korea though? As soon as that wall falls down, the south will be flooded with millions of refugees. That will be a huge issue for SK.
I was stationed in South Korea for a year, they don't want a united Korea.
The money it would cost to modernize and westernize North Korea is in the trillions, SK doesn't want to pay for that crap.
I never said their personal relationship dictated their political moves, and it's never meaningless to have a good personal relationship between the leaders of the U.S. and China.
Utterly meaningless is the appearance of a good personal relationship between Trump and Xi. Because it is just appearance. They don't have a good personal relationship. They have a vested interest in appearing to have a good personal relationship. But Xi can't afford that. (And neither can Trump, though I doubt he realizes it.) Xi will do whatever is necessary to gain an advantage for China. Whatever is necessary.
I was stationed in South Korea for a year, they don't want a united Korea.
The money it would cost to modernize and westernize North Korea is in the trillions, SK doesn't want to pay for that crap.
Maybe that's why S Korea has been praising Trump to the high heavens. Every diplomat in the world is aware of Trump's ego, and how he eats up praise. Maybe S Korea is hoping that the United States will step forward with some aid for N Korea.
His state controlled media verbally attacked and pissed off China. That's one step.
China actually got onboard for a change with sanctions against North Korea as a result. So 90% of all trade North Korea engages in was at risk or just gone. That's another step.
Unlike any president before him, Trump has a (perhaps undeserved) reputation for being a completely loose canon. The kind that would willingly trade Honolulu for a chance to nuke North Korea into oblivion. A man who is just crazy enough to escalate things as far as you care to go because he's all about winning the proverbial game of chicken. And the mainstream media are doing a fine job of reinforcing that perception. It all adds up to a perception of the POTUS that is really and truly terrifying.
Ultimately, given the choice, North Korea is an easier sacrifice. China is highly dependent on trade with South Korea, Japan, the USA, the EU and the rest of the Westerized economic powers. Dropping NK like a bad habit is trivial for them, barely causing a hiccup in their economy.
China no doubt realizes the importance of having a major seat at the table in any hypothetical reunification talks. For example, they can push for the complete removal of US troops from the Korean peninsula or that failing, no US troops north of the 38th parallel. That means China can keep their buffer zone without needing North Korea to continue to exist.
Supporting a rogue nuclear power is bad PR for China anyways.
Kim Jong Un decides that survival is better than certain death for him and his family. By being all love, peace, rainbows and sunshine, Kim can negotiate for a comfortable retirement rather than dying in an underground bunker or being dragged through the streets and lynched.
It all comes with a warning. Don't get too excited. The Kim family are notorious for pulling the rug out from under us when things look hopeful.
Hold Kim and NK's feet to the fire and they won't have room to back out of anything.
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