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The problem with social science predictions is that social systems are mutable, so predictions themselves can change the future. Self-fulfilling prophecies are one example, as are the rules of the game changing when too many actors try to game the rules. As an example, if I had an equation that could predict the stock market, the accuracy of my predictions would diminish every time I acted on them as more and more people saw a correlation between my bets and what the market did. Eventually people would learn that they could make money just by copying what I do, which would change the assumptions of my equation and introduce destabilizing feedback. So I'd have to go back to the drawing board.
Accurate social science predictions are an arms race of feedback and secrecy. A big prediction that is publicized will almost never come true, because people will modify their behavior as a result of the prediction. In this way predictions are simply another form of rhetoric especially in politics.
Predictions based on immutable physical systems are another story.
... A big prediction that is publicized will almost never come true, because people will modify their behavior as a result of the prediction. In this way predictions are simply another form of rhetoric especially in politics.
(emphasis added)
I think the bolded was really the point I was trying to make but could not quite articulate as you did.
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