Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
No it doesn't and you struggle with the mathematical fact that if you increase the total drivers you can also increase the number of uninsured as well as insured.
According to the article you provided, the overall number of uninsured drivers fell by roughly 10% when illegal aliens were able to obtain drivers licenses. Statistically, whether that decrease was accompanied by a increase to the overall number of drivers is irrelevant to the question of how many overall uninsured drivers there are. Consider the following:
Year 1:
There are 100 licensed drivers.
There are 10 illegal alien unlicensed drivers.
There are 20 uninsured drivers, licensed and unlicensed.
If, in Year 2, the illegal alien unlicensed drivers become licensed and there is a 10% decrease in uninsured drivers (per your article), then we have as follows:
Year 2:
There are 110 licensed drivers.
There are 18 uninsured drivers, licensed and unlicensed.
"But," you argue, "allowing illegal aliens to become licensed means we will add more drivers to the road!" Well, that may be true, but (again) your article cited an overall 10% decrease in uninsured motorists, meaning that the increase to the total number of drivers is not relevant. Consider the following:
Year 1:
There are 100 licensed drivers.
There are 10 illegal alien unlicensed drivers.
There are 10 illegal alien non-drivers.
There are 20 uninsured drivers, licensed and unlicensed.
If, in Year 2, the illegal alien unlicensed drivers and illegal alien non-drivers become licensed and there is a 10% decrease in uninsured drivers (again, per your article), then we have as follows:
Year 2:
There are 120 licensed drivers.
There are 18 uninsured drivers, licensed and unlicensed.
As you can see, overall, there is a decrease in the total of uninsured drivers from 20 to 18 regardless of whether there are more drivers on the road. Given that we know there was a 10% decrease to the total number of uninsured motorists, the number of drivers on the road only affects the calculation of the rate of uninsured motorists. Certainly, this contradicts your claim that giving licenses to illegal aliens adds "millions" of uninsured motorists to the road. It seems that the opposite is true.
So, I will ask (yet again), where is your evidence that "giving licenses to illegals will have millions more driving than were driving before, only they cannot afford and do not value insurance"? So far, the two articles you provided showed the opposite to be true.
Maybe not millions but hundreds of thousands. The article does prove it. You can't be in the state's low cost program unless you can't afford private insurance. That so many illegals joined the program shows that many cannot afford it. Wonder what they do in the other 10 states? Do they subsidize low cost insurance programs?
A 2011 study published in the Journal of Insurance Regulation found no significant difference in insurance rates between states that require license applicants to prove they are lawfully in the country and those without such restrictions.6 Additionally, for states that allow unauthorized immigrants to obtain licenses, the study found that a 1 percent increase in a state’s unauthorized population was associated with a nearly 2 percent increase in uninsured motorists (when controlling for such factors as requirements for compulsory uninsured motorist liability, the unemployment rate, and insurance affordability, among others).
Maybe not millions but hundreds of thousands. The article does prove it. You can't be in the state's low cost program unless you can't afford private insurance. That so many illegals joined the program shows that many cannot afford it. Wonder what they do in the other 10 states? Do they subsidize low cost insurance programs?
A 2011 study published in the Journal of Insurance Regulation found no significant difference in insurance rates between states that require license applicants to prove they are lawfully in the country and those without such restrictions.6 Additionally, for states that allow unauthorized immigrants to obtain licenses, the study found that a 1 percent increase in a state’s unauthorized population was associated with a nearly 2 percent increase in uninsured motorists (when controlling for such factors as requirements for compulsory uninsured motorist liability, the unemployment rate, and insurance affordability, among others).
That doesn't say what you think it says. You need to compare before/after illegals can get their licenses in a given state. Comparing rates of uninsured motorists in different states controlling in view of their overall illegal immigrant population doesn't tell you whether giving licenses to illegals increases or decreases the overall number of uninsured motorists. I'm beginning to think you don't understand how statistical analysis works...
As far as your first paragraph is concerned, you appear to be just speculating as to what happens in other states based on no data whatsoever. The last time you engaged in blind speculation you ended up posting a link to an article that blew up the entire premise of your argument.
National security? A few hungry Central Americans are a threat to national security? Katy bar the door.
Sucks to be so wrong....
Quote:
The term “criminal alien” refers to aliens who have been convicted of one or more crimes, whether in the United States or abroad, prior to interdiction by the U.S. Border Patrol; it does not include convictions for conduct that is not deemed criminal by the United States. Arrests of criminal aliens are a subset of total apprehensions by U.S. Border Patrol.
6259/365 = 17.14794520547945 CRIMINAL ALIENS are caught daily...
And those are the ones that get caught....
Funny you think that a few hungry Central Americas...but what can we expect from people who are not willing to actually listen to what is going on and only parrots what they are told to parrot...."a few hungry Central Americas".....
As you can see, overall, there is a decrease in the total of uninsured drivers from 20 to 18 regardless of whether there are more drivers on the road. Given that we know there was a 10% decrease to the total number of uninsured motorists, the number of drivers on the road only affects the calculation of the rate of uninsured motorists. Certainly, this contradicts your claim that giving licenses to illegal aliens adds "millions" of uninsured motorists to the road. It seems that the opposite is true.
There is no measurement of uninsured drivers. You are referring to tickets for driving without insurance. And the article stated that number had been going down for years prior to illegal licensing. Lower ticketing could mean higher compliance or less focus by police. And tickets do not say if the driver was legal or illegal. Quite telling that the states that implemented licensing illegals provided no means to statistically measure the effects promised.
I'm not falling any further for your distraction. The issue is about illegal immigration and reducing incentives to come here. Reducing the number of illegals here is one guaranteed way to reduce the number of illegals driving without insurance. We need to stop making life easier for them. They not only use these licenses to drive but to project a sense of legality. Correct or not, people often view possession of a state license as indication one is legal.
That doesn't say what you think it says. You need to compare before/after illegals can get their licenses in a given state. Comparing rates of uninsured motorists in different states controlling in view of their overall illegal immigrant population doesn't tell you whether giving licenses to illegals increases or decreases the overall number of uninsured motorists. I'm beginning to think you don't understand how statistical analysis works...
As far as your first paragraph is concerned, you appear to be just speculating as to what happens in other states based on no data whatsoever. The last time you engaged in blind speculation you ended up posting a link to an article that blew up the entire premise of your argument.
What article was that? The CA low cost insurance program? It blew up your argument and showed yet one more way that illegals get public benefits to the tune of $900 million.
I can show you many more where the talking points that liberals used to sell the idea of licensing illegals haven't really panned out. Studies also have shown that insurance premiums have not decreased, another talking point used to license illegals.
You're never going to stop defending illegals and the incentives provided to make their illegal life here easier, are you? You are a phony in your alleged support to reduce incentives. I'm beginning to think you are really for open borders and don't really care what the data says or not so long as you can find some excuse to provide benefits to illegals and get more to come.
There is no measurement of uninsured drivers. You are referring to tickets for driving without insurance. And the article stated that number had been going down for years prior to illegal licensing. Lower ticketing could mean higher compliance or less focus by police. And tickets do not say if the driver was legal or illegal.
I'm not falling any further for your distraction. The issue is about illegal immigration and reducing incentives to come here. Reducing the number of illegals here is one guaranteed way to reduce the number of illegals driving without insurance. We need to stop making life easier for them. They not only use these licenses to drive but to project a sense of legality. Correct or not, people often view possession of a state license as indication one is legal.
The incidence of uninsured tickets in a given year is a reasonable statistic that can be used to extrapolate the total number of uninsured motorists in a given state. Whether the ticked driver is legal or illegal is not relevant for that purpose. If the total number of uninsured motorists decreases by 10% after a law is enacted allowing illegal aliens to obtain drivers licenses, one can conclude (absent some other factor or explanation that does not seem to exists here) that illegal aliens who previously drove without licenses obtained insurance in conjunction with their licensing.
Again, I'm starting to think you don't understand statistical analysis...
Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia
What article was that? The CA low cost insurance program? It blew up your argument and showed yet one more way that illegals get public benefits to the tune of $900 million.
The article that said after illegal aliens were allowed to get licenses the total number of uninsured motorists declined. That blew up your claim that allowing illegal aliens to get licenses meant adding "millions" of uninsured motorists to the road.
5 billion, that’s BILLION for the hard of hearing, is outrageous & disgusting & you all know it. Enough with the sniveling, there are way more important things to put 5 BILLION towards.....and you all know it. Christ.
You do realize that that is just barely over 1/10th of 1% of our annual budget, right? So let's just build it already and move on.
The incidence of uninsured tickets in a given year is a reasonable statistic that can be used to extrapolate the total number of uninsured motorists in a given state. Whether the ticked driver is legal or illegal is not relevant for that purpose. If the total number of uninsured motorists decreases by 10% after a law is enacted allowing illegal aliens to obtain drivers licenses, one can conclude (absent some other factor or explanation that does not seem to exists here) that illegal aliens who previously drove without licenses obtained insurance in conjunction with their licensing.
Again, I'm starting to think you don't understand statistical analysis...
The article that said after illegal aliens were allowed to get licenses the total number of uninsured motorists declined. That blew up your claim that allowing illegal aliens to get licenses meant adding "millions" of uninsured motorists to the road.
You're starting to think wrong. Fewer tickets for no insurance do not necessarily extrapolate to fewer uninsured illegal drivers. You haven't explained how number of tickets were declining for years prior to licensing illegals. Obviously there are other controlling factors.
5 billion, that’s BILLION for the hard of hearing, is outrageous & disgusting & you all know it. Enough with the sniveling, there are way more important things to put 5 BILLION towards.....and you all know it. Christ.
What does that work out to ? Roughly $50 per working person ? I'll tell you what, I'll cover your portion and the portions of my liberal friends (only have a few.) Would that make you feel any better ?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
