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View Poll Results: Should we pay 5 billion for a wall Trump promised Mexico was to pay for?
Yes, we should. Mexico will pay us back. 127 37.91%
No, we don't need more wasteful spending. 208 62.09%
Voters: 335. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-29-2018, 08:27 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
The extra births wouldn't show up as illegals.
Unless 100% of them are birthing at home (aren't people here claiming that they use the hospitals?), it would show up as more births in general than anticipated and be an indicator that there were possibly more women in America than thought. (There could be other reasons for a high amount, but we're talking about it as correlating to this) But there weren't any such disparities. Nor were there a lot of extra kids enrolled in school that would correlate to a higher number than expected, and so on.

 
Old 12-29-2018, 08:31 PM
 
23,177 posts, read 12,210,827 times
Reputation: 29354
Quote:
Originally Posted by latimeria View Post
Unless 100% of them are birthing at home (aren't people here claiming that they use the hospitals?), it would show up as more births in general than anticipated and be an indicator that there were possibly more women in America than thought. (There could be other reasons for a high amount, but we're talking about it as correlating to this) But there weren't any such disparities. Nor were there a lot of extra kids enrolled in school that would correlate to a higher number than expected, and so on.

I don't think you know anything about the number of births or school enrollments.
 
Old 12-29-2018, 08:34 PM
 
5,315 posts, read 2,112,436 times
Reputation: 2572
Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
I don't think you know anything about the number of births or school enrollments.
Sigh. It was in the article. You can show different data if you have it.

For example:
"About 4 million women in the American Community Survey (ACS) each year reported they had a child in the prior year. This nearly matches the number of births reported by the National Center for Health Statistics (NSHC) based on birth certificates, which suggests the ACS is not missing large numbers of mothers. If there were 11 million more illegal immigrants in the country, then NSHC data would need to show roughly 300,000 more births, which it does not."

I dont think they would be somehow skipping out on getting birth certificates; after all, as things currently are, that would mean the child would be a US citizen. So this is one indicator (not absolute, but compiled with other data, makes a case) that there isn't double the population that is believed.

Last edited by latimeria; 12-29-2018 at 08:43 PM..
 
Old 12-29-2018, 08:51 PM
 
23,177 posts, read 12,210,827 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by latimeria View Post
Sigh. It was in the article. You can show different data if you have it.

For example:
"About 4 million women in the American Community Survey (ACS) each year reported they had a child in the prior year. This nearly matches the number of births reported by the National Center for Health Statistics (NSHC) based on birth certificates, which suggests the ACS is not missing large numbers of mothers. If there were 11 million more illegal immigrants in the country, then NSHC data would need to show roughly 300,000 more births, which it does not."

No they wouldn't. You can't determine population by number of births. Because a woman didn't give birth doesn't mean she wasn't here. A simple change in average birthrate or ratio of men coming here could have much more effect.
 
Old 12-29-2018, 08:57 PM
 
5,315 posts, read 2,112,436 times
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O
Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
No they wouldn't. You can't determine population by number of births. Because a woman didn't give birth doesn't mean she wasn't here.
It's an indicator. There are things like birth rates where you would reasonably expect X amount of women to give birth per year according to historical data. Are they all not getting pregnant or something? I thought that was part of the idea of why some say they come here...make more US citizens. Yet there are no significant amounts of extra births that would correlate to an extra unknown population of women.

You aren't really supplying any data to support your beliefs there are double as many as we think, I notice, like an unusual ratio of men or the like or...anything.

Last edited by latimeria; 12-29-2018 at 09:08 PM..
 
Old 12-29-2018, 09:07 PM
 
23,177 posts, read 12,210,827 times
Reputation: 29354
Quote:
Originally Posted by latimeria View Post
O

It's an indicator. There are things like birth rates where you would reasonably expect X amount of women to give birth per year according to historical data. Are they all not getting pregnant or something? I thought that was part of the idea of why some say they come here...make more US citizens. Yet there are no significant amounts of extra births that would correlate to an extra unknown population of women. You aren't really supplying any data to support your beliefs there are double as many as we think, I notice, like an unusual ratio of men or the like or...anything.

Our birth rate is declining and hospitals don't track citizenship of parents. That data cannot tell you anything about a subset of the population. I never backed an estimate of 22 million but I think 15-18 million is more reasonable.
 
Old 12-29-2018, 09:24 PM
 
5,315 posts, read 2,112,436 times
Reputation: 2572
Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
Our birth rate is declining and hospitals don't track citizenship of parents. That data cannot tell you anything about a subset of the population. I never backed an estimate of 22 million but I think 15-18 million is more reasonable.
So where are the data points supporting that much?
 
Old 12-29-2018, 09:29 PM
 
Location: New York Area
35,042 posts, read 16,987,357 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by latimeria View Post
But it's a sample size of one person saying this. That really doesn't tell if it's widespread or not. It just doesn't.
It's one person's partial list of kept promises; already bigger than Obama's list.
 
Old 12-29-2018, 09:35 PM
 
5,315 posts, read 2,112,436 times
Reputation: 2572
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
It's one person's partial list of kept promises; already bigger than Obama's list.
I was talking about how the one poster's experience is just that...one person's experience. It may hold true overall. It may not. It's interesting to hear people's experiences and we can keep them in mind, but it cannot truly indicate what is going on by itself.
 
Old 12-29-2018, 09:41 PM
 
Location: Just over the horizon
18,454 posts, read 7,085,120 times
Reputation: 11699
Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Gringo View Post
All those illegals working here are hired by "USA" companies that benefit from cheap labor undercutting American workers.

Yet tRump/Pubs/right wingers never want to get into employer sanctions.

Because they're the ones who hire them.





Just for the record.....

I'm 100% A-OK with penalties against employers for knowingly hiring illegal immigrants.

And it certainly should get more press.....

Gee, I wonder why the Left doesn't pick up that flag and run with it instead of harping on "I thought Mexico was going to pay for the wall" and calling everyone racist?

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