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I'm really sick and tired of people not calling out Gallup on its polling even when I agree with/like the sentiment expressed by the results, like this one.
Here's the title on their page which is picked up by the media:
Quote:
Americans' Perceptions of U.S. World Image Best Since 2003
Fifty-eight percent of Americans believe the U.S. rates "very" or "somewhat favorably" in the world's eyes. Though the current figure is up just slightly from the 55% recorded last year, it represents the highest figure Gallup has found since 2003.
At the very end of the polling results summary is a link to click on for their Survey methodology. How many people, including the news media who get press releases, do you think bother to follow that link?
Here's what their methodology says:
Quote:
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Feb. 1-10, 2019, with a random sample of 1,016 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting. Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.
Now I ask you, where does it say they polled Americans? It doesn't. Just because you are an adult who lives in the US doesn't make you an American. In addition to all of the adult illegals who live here there are legal adults living here on visas. How many of the 1,016 adults living here that they polled are really Americans? WHO KNOWS? How many that they polled last year are Americans? WHO KNOWS? How do we know their random sample is representative of Americans? We don't! And it's not just this Gallup poll, either.
It makes me really angry...and again, I happen to agree with the sentiment of this poll. But, it's bogus.
It's kind of a silly question anyway. Basically it's asking, "What do you think others think about you?" Well I'm sure many think that others think we're just hunky-dory. Doesn't mean that those other people *really* like you.
No poll is going to really ask the majority of the adult population. That would be asking over 100,000,000 people. It is not going to happen. I generally hang up when a poll calls me although if I am in the mood, I will answer them. I do like how some people, mainly Trump supporters, who call polls fake but then embrace them when they are favorable to Trump.
Gallup also weighted its final samples to match the U.S. population according to gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density and phone status (cellphone only, landline only, both, and cellphone mostly). Demographic weighting targets for the U.S. as a whole and for individual states were based on the most recent Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older U.S. population...
Population density targets were based on the most recent U.S. Census.
Now I ask you, where does it say they polled Americans? It doesn't. Just because you are an adult who lives in the US doesn't make you an American. In addition to all of the adult illegals who live here there are legal adults living here on visas. How many of the 1,016 adults living here that they polled are really Americans? WHO KNOWS? How many that they polled last year are Americans? WHO KNOWS? How do we know their random sample is representative of Americans? We don't! And it's not just this Gallup poll, either.
It makes me really angry...and again, I happen to agree with the sentiment of this poll. But, it's bogus.
Really angry? Seriously?
Perhaps you need a hobby or something. They can poll things anyway they want people can accept the results or not. The sample size sounds about normal for this kind of poll. I recall the 2018 and 2016 races and they were usually within the margin of error like this one probably is too. Gallup and Pew come up with some interesting polls. I enjoy looking at the results. They don't make me really angry.
I would imagine the people their doing the polling know a lot more about the subject than you do. And if you think you can do better start your own firm.
It is amazing the kinds of things that "trigger" people today.
So what? Big deal. Americans don’t care about what others think of us anyway and they aren’t interested in the truth unless the poll says that the whole world wants to kiss our feet.
Seeing as how the United States has to buy its friendships, We should already have a pretty good idea of how the world views us.
Now I ask you, where does it say they polled Americans? It doesn't. Just because you are an adult who lives in the US doesn't make you an American. In addition to all of the adult illegals who live here there are legal adults living here on visas. How many of the 1,016 adults living here that they polled are really Americans? WHO KNOWS? How many that they polled last year are Americans? WHO KNOWS? How do we know their random sample is representative of Americans? We don't! And it's not just this Gallup poll, either.
It makes me really angry...and again, I happen to agree with the sentiment of this poll. But, it's bogus.
Sorry, but as you say yourself, the polling is still accurate.
Polling is polling. It's a moving target no matter what. We don't know how many of those adults beat their wives the day before, got drunk 4 hours before or just got out of prison last week. We don't know how many are opiate addicts.
here is what we DO know. Polling still represents the best way to get SOME idea of trends. Example - Americans are less religious and they support same sex-marriage and legal pot. Being as most immigrant populations, Russians and Chinese aside, tend toward "religious", if the polls were skewed they would likely be skewed in the opposite way thought.
But the real question is - was it ever any different? The answer is NO.
Sure, if 150 years ago you gave a math test at the polls and make sure the people have white skin, we KNOW what the results of the election would be...so it is possible for polls to be off. That's why they have margins of error.
Frankly it sounds like you want social and political science to be REAL ACTUAL science, which it is not.
So what? Big deal. Americans don’t care about what others think of us anyway and they aren’t interested in the truth unless the poll says that the whole world wants to kiss our feet.
Seeing as how the United States has to buy its friendships, We should already have a pretty good idea of how the world views us.
Do you have a survey showing that Americans don't care about our position in the world?
It looks like about a wash...goes back and forth. My guess would be the more involved and educated Americans DO care more, but we'd have to look that one up.
"In the current survey, 43% agree that the U.S. should mind its own business internationally, while 50% disagree. That is similar to opinion on this question in 2011 (46% agreed, 50% disagreed)."
Not exactly the same question...but it gives an idea that Americans think about this stuff.
We laughed at the pollsters on Nov. 8th, 2016. I bet you were with this crowd who believed them without thought or question....
A broken record. Most everything was in the margin of error. All the polls of polls show the result getting closer in the days after Comey (closer to the election) if you will.
In short, the polling was accurate. That's reflected in the popular vote and the margin of error.
One would think you, if you are an engineer, would know better.
In a couple of the recent elections, 538 accurately predicted ALL of the Senate Seats. I call that decent forecasting.
Just repeat over and over again....polls show trends....and I think you will have a better outlook. All of our polls show that a nickel is not going to land on its edge, but there is a 1 in 6000 chances of it doing so.
There was a one in two BILLION chance that Pat B got 3,000 votes in Palm Beach County - yet those votes (not real, of course!), made GWB POTUS, gave us the Great Recession and the Wars, etc.
One can accept things without putting a stamp of approval on them. You and I know that a one in two billion chance thing (Jews for a Holocaust Denier) didn't happen. And the OJ murder situation wasn't done by the single other individual on the planet who may have the same DNA either.
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