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I would hope so, but don't count your chickens. Trump's skill is in tearing down his opponent, and it might be the only thing he's good at. While those polls might be accurate now, what will happen (and what happened last time) is he will eliminate his opponents one by one. People are lazy, so he'll get away with lies, nick-names, and whatnot, and one by one they'll drop. He'll eventually have an opponent in the general election (if I were a betting man, I would bet it won't be Biden, but who knows), and he'll spread lies and fear about that person. Bad state-players will exploit the voter base (again) by putting out fake news, and half-truths.
As much as I want that man out of the office, I think it is foolish to assume it will happen. A much better approach is to plan for the worst, and hope for the best. Fight like we're behind. Fight clean but fight hard. Assume nothing, and continue to focus on the values that Made America Great in the first place. (Small piece of irony, but the acronym of MAGA did not apply 3 years ago, but I do believe that in 2020, we are (will be) in a place where we have to get BACK to American greatness. Trump has hurt us that badly. His base will disagree, which is their right.
Bingo.
Smearing political opponents is not only Trump's but the Republican's go-to strategy.
While the polls are encouraging, take nothing for granted.
I don't doubt for a second that his polling is low or that he has directed his own staff to either ignore or fluff the bad news from polls. Both make perfect sense.
No elected official is going to direct their own team to make sure everyone gets unfiltered bad news. That's moronic and completely antithetical to the job. I'd think less of Trump, or anyone who needs to work propaganda as part of keeping their job for that matter, if they WEREN'T directing their own staff that way. That's what that staff is there for, to keep the boss looking good.
So I totally believe that he directs his staff as reported.
As far as his poll numbers go, for one thing, they have always underrepresented the truth. Next, the media has never, not even for a second, let up on the negative narrative and rarely if ever reports on anything positive. Then there's the widely known phenomenon of people when called will say bad things about Trump to someone else, but still support him, because of fear of he backlash from the cultural narrative where you have to diss on Trump or be doxxed/shunned/exiled/ruined/shamed/etc. And finally, there's Trump, simply never backing down from the media and constantly antagonizing them. All of these create fertile ground for groupthink, consensus reality and confirmation bias.
So I totally believe he polls poorly.
That said, I don't see any news here. Both things are obvious and common sense really. Andit's hard to go "omfg, he isn't polling well!!!" in shock and wonderment, because we get the same story from somewhere EVERY....SINGLE....DAY. Same as the 2016 primaries, same as the 2016 election season, same as every day since Jan 2017. Over and over, every day, ad nauseum. Calling this particular topic news is like giving front page, above the fold coverage to water still being wet. Seriously, not a day goes by that some anti-Trump media outlet doesn't portend the man's utter doom.
I get a kick out of those who put so much faith in what polls are saying.....especially when the election is 17 months out. How did that work out last time? I am no fan of Trump but understand that the current slate of Democrats will have plenty of time to shoot themselves in the foot or stick a foot in their mouth.
42 to 45% has been his consistent range on RCP which tracks multiple polls. Currently 43.9.
And this exact same point in Obama's first time, his RCP average was 47.8% approval.
Given the media narrative for each, the known error with Trump polling, and history of polling the person with the job against theoretical "Candidate To Be Named Later" (messy reality vs idyllic theory), Trump is polling right about where a guy who is going to be reelected should be polling.
In fact, 43.9 on RCP, given the relentless, daily media assault on the man, is nothing short of spectacular. You add context and historical patterns to that number, and he is much stronger than first blush would suggest.
I don't doubt for a second that his polling is low or that he has directed his own staff to either ignore or fluff the bad news from polls. Both make perfect sense.
No elected official is going to direct their own team to make sure everyone gets unfiltered bad news. That's moronic and completely antithetical to the job. I'd think less of Trump, or anyone who needs to work propaganda as part of keeping their job for that matter, if they WEREN'T directing their own staff that way. That's what that staff is there for, to keep the boss looking good.
So I totally believe that he directs his staff as reported.
As far as his poll numbers go, for one thing, they have always underrepresented the truth. Next, the media has never, not even for a second, let up on the negative narrative and rarely if ever reports on anything positive. Then there's the widely known phenomenon of people when called will say bad things about Trump to someone else, but still support him, because of fear of he backlash from the cultural narrative where you have to diss on Trump or be doxxed/shunned/exiled/ruined/shamed/etc. And finally, there's Trump, simply never backing down from the media and constantly antagonizing them. All of these create fertile ground for groupthink, consensus reality and confirmation bias.
So I totally believe he polls poorly.
That said, I don't see any news here. Both things are obvious and common sense really. Andit's hard to go "omfg, he isn't polling well!!!" in shock and wonderment, because we get the same story from somewhere EVERY....SINGLE....DAY. Same as the 2016 primaries, same as the 2016 election season, same as every day since Jan 2017. Over and over, every day, ad nauseum. Calling this particular topic news is like giving front page, above the fold coverage to water still being wet. Seriously, not a day goes by that some anti-Trump media outlet doesn't portend the man's utter doom.
Agree with all your post, EXCEPT the part where the media is unfair to him. They give him more time than any candidate, with HIS WORDS. THey report favorably all the time, and don't go deep enough to show the nuance that is his failure. I am talking about actual NEWS (not CNN Talking heads). NBC, CBS, ABC and especially PBS are incredibly kind to him, in contrast to reality.
Example: Everyone single one of them reported that he inked a deal with NK and repeated his statement that we are now safe on the peninsula. EVERY ONE. It was the talking heads that dug in deep to show that there was no meat to the agreements, not the mainstream media. Mainstream media was kind to him.
Then, (and this is where Trump loses every time) reality happened, and his failure was exposed when NK did not live up to their promise.
Want a more recent example. The mainstream media reported Trump's Mexico deal as a success. Only time will tell if it is or not.
Stop with the crying about unfair media. CNN treats him about the same way that Fox treated Hillary. Neither of them are credible news sources.
(Best, most unbiased news I've heard is PBS. Listen to UpFirst podcast for an example. Again, make sure you're listening to news on PBS, and not talk-shows. Two different things.)
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