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There is a commercial that a person is seeing a trend outside and translates it to an investment and becomes successful... Why is the economy doing well... Easy... Open your eyes...
GDP growth was below-average during Obama's presidency. Thankfully Trump has fixed that.
President Obama has the second-worst record on the debt since 1953. The federal government ran the largest deficit, in absolute terms, it has ever run in 2009: $1.4 trillion.
Give Trump more time to build a record. You did for Obama.
Florida went through two booms. The cocaine boom of South Florida in the 1970's and 1980's and the Great White Snowbird boom of the 1990's. Most of the snowbirds found land/housing to be extremely affordable and the Floridians were happy to build cheap crap houses to service the "investor" snowbirds who had disposable incomes to blow. This house of straws economy model collapsed with the rest of the country in 2007 and the Yanks pulled their monies and went back home. They have forgotten about Florida now that the recession is over and have moved on to other coastal areas with cheap land and lots of housing options. Places like Charleston, SC. What's left in FL is vacant housing, no jobs, and no Yanks to prop up the economy.
How is that even possible when the unemployment rate in Florida is 3.5% and is adding on more population than most states?
I love how you ask to show why Trump has made the economy so good but don't allow it to be said.
It's great how Obama is taking credit for jobs he said were gone forever.
Trump = USA winning
The unemployment rate in West Virginia is 5.2%, higher than most states. Probably many people who have jobs don't think they're decent paying. Obama probably meant a lot of high paying jobs are gone forever.
How is that even possible when the unemployment rate in Florida is 3.5% and is adding on more population than most states?
It's known nationwide that we haven't had the uptick in wages (and therefore lifestyle) that SHOULD be associated with lower unemployment. This is obviously not Trumps doing...more an ongoing winning of the .01% in making sure wages stay low (immigrant labor, low min. wages, uber, etc.)...
Remember, those Uber drivers making $8 an hour are gainfully employed. One of the podcasts I listened to about WV interviewed a nice young man working at the Comfort Inn where the reporters were staying - he was the manager for $8.25 an hour.
No one is claiming there isn't plenty of work.
Basically, momentum is causing Florida to continue to populate. If you took people who intended to move here and had them drive 95 on the east coast or from Tampa to Orlanda a dozen times they'd probably reconsider....but the "dream" is always there for a lot of people.
Neither here nor there.....but, as I said, plenty of Russian and Canadians and other Foreign money coming in also and a relatively limited amount of dry land where people want to live. There are plans for many many millions more people, but it doesn't mean they are going to do any better economically. It will be more and more Realtors fighting each other for each listing and sale.
Maybe we need some threads about Florida in the Florida forum.....anyway, a big Macro movement which many people haven't considered is that since 9/11 many Americans have had fears of going out of the country. Florida benefited from that also.
Anyways....in the context of the thread, the point is....if everything is so great, that usually doesn't mean that 1/2 the people aren't making it. There are lots of working poor and even many homeless poor (or dang close to homeless).
Projections call for 30 million in Florida (I think 21 million now)....in one more generation. Given the amount of water (swamps, lakes, etc.) that is an incredible population density for the areas where humans actually live.
The energy industry, which employs many people in my area and state, has benefit a lot from Trump and the removal of many Obama overregulations. We are very wary of people like Obama, Al Gore, AOC and other supporters of the Green New Deal who are threatening to destroy our economy based on their obsesion with global warming which isn't a proven fact despite what the liberal media says.
Take the poll - then explain, if possible, after reading my take.
Do not mention:
1. Unemployment - since it has been headed down for almost a decade and we all know what kind of jobs are our there.
2. GDP - because firstly, we know even 2.9 sux and we also project much lower than that - and, besides, GDP as a measure sux because if you pay more for medical care, etc. GDP goes way up.
But rather, address these and other items I may not have mentioned.....
1. Stock market gone nowhere in 15 months - projections are for poor performance for many years.
2. Fed stopped their normal course of action - obviously the Fed was on a path which was long planned - yet they stopped due to worry about a fragile economy.
3. Basic measurement of the common person - for example, that 46% of Floridians aren't making it, same goes with large percentages of the population elsewhere.
4. Deficit WAY up and projected to stay up - in an economic "miracle" or "boom" there is enough money naturally to pay the bills.
5. Car sales, home sales, stable or off....
"U.S. auto sales tumbled 2.8 percent in February"
6. Largest trade deficits in history.
7. Failure of even all of the above to lift most boats.
IMHO, the state of the nation is fairly poor. The state of the economy...I would rate that as "stable with risk" on a scale like this.
1. Great Recession - can't get much worse.
2. Poor
3. Stable
4. Slow Growth
5. Boom
So I'm picking #3....as an overall zeitgeist (the defining spirit or mood )of where we sit.
Today, we are witnessing history.
Yes, unemployment had been declining under Obama, but it never reached the present sub-4% range and real wages were actually declining under Obama at the end of his second term (-0.7%).
So there is nothing special or particularly impressive about a president that happened to enter office as a recession was reaching bottom and hung around while the economy rebounded.
In contrast to Obama's characteristically stagnant job market, during Eisenhower's first term, UE reached 2.5%...that's impressive!
It would rise again to 6.1% and then fall again to 3.7% in his second term.
UE would remain below 4% through 1966-1969 and into 1970.
This is also very impressive.
It would be another three decades before we experienced unemployment below 4%.
Under Clinton, UE reached 3.8% (April 2000) but never reached 3.7%.
Clinton enjoyed a sub-4% UE rate for just five months (Apr, Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec of 2000).
Under Trump, UE has been as low as 3.7% twice (Sep and Nov of 2018).
Moreover, it has been below 4% for 10 of the last twelve months and is currently 3.8% with real wages on the rise.
Getting here is a rare event.
Staying here for any length of time is an even more rare event.
I work for a very large Supply Chain Management Company. Probably one of the biggest in Texas. Our clients range from large corporations to medium size e-commerce clients.
Under Obama, we saw multiple businesses fail. All of our customers struggled. The volume of business was awful because the economy was crap. No one was growing and no one wanted to make any big decisions. Probably the worst time in my entire career.
Once Trump won the Presidency everything changed. You could see it within a week from the announcement. Companies felt more confident in the direction of the country. Three years later we now are expanding to our third warehouse and looking for additional space. All of our clients are prospering. Rarely do we have inventory just sitting in our warehouse unlike the Obama days.
Say all you want about Trump but this economy is far superior to Obama's 8 years of stagnation.
It's known nationwide that we haven't had the uptick in wages (and therefore lifestyle) that SHOULD be associated with lower unemployment.
There is no Law, Theory or Corollary of Economics that says low unemployment causes high wages, or should cause wages to rise higher.
Wages are determined by the Supply & Demand of a given skill-set within a defined labor market.
Your government recognizes 800+ skill-sets and there are more than 2,000 labor markets in the US.
If all 6 Million unemployed lived in one of the 2,000+ labor markets, then wages in that labor market would decline, but wages in the other 1,999+ would rise.
That's how it works.
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri
Sounds like you buy the trickle-down and nationalism (isolationalism, protectionism) theories.....
The US ran on "trickle-down" right up to the time of FDR.
Supply-Side Economics is not a new theory. It's a very old theory, older than the United States.
It's telling that you don't understand that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri
"U.S. Consumer Confidence Slumped in March...
So? That's just the beliefs of a lot of misinformed people.
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri
Would you say you are smarter than Greenspan and the Lehman Brothers boys?
I don't know them, and don't care to know them.
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