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We have seen.
Trump's approval rating among likely voters - the only poll that will count - is now at 51% approval/47% disapproval. This represents an improvement over the 43-44% measured by the same method in mid January.
About 70% of registered voters will actually vote. About 60% of adults are even registered to vote.
Polls are not trustworthy and I'm one of the few that said Trump had a real chance at winning Pennsylvania and Michigan (no one saw Wisconsin) but I will guarantee this. If Trump pushes us towards more war and oil continues to rise, he loses no matter who the (D) candidate is.
If Americans want cheap oil / gasoline, then electing a Democrat will only make it worse.
Only poll that matters will be taken around the 1st Tuesday in Nov 2020.
Beyond that it's all propaganda.
I actually agree with this statement.
But until then it also shows an opening for Democrats to seize. As much as he decries polls- much of Trumps 2016 campaign was spent spitting out diatribes and themes. He then focused on the ones that were successful in polling. So if Dems want to win, they need to focus on the issues that have made Trump unpopular. Hillary's blind allegiance to themes that people did not care about and people who could not (or would not) vote were what left her with a couple of million extra popular votes that did not provide a victory. Her husband beat an incumbent by picking a topic that was import and hammering it home constantly. 'It's the economy, stupid?'
I saw where some commentators opined that President Trump's dip in approval was due to the release of the Muller report.
However, one made an interesting observation: it may have been due to the tax reform act, since the poll was conducted just after April 15th, and by then many people discovered that their promised tax savings (didn't Mr. Trump say some $4,000 on average?) didn't pan out.
Only poll that matters will be taken around the 1st Tuesday in Nov 2020.
Beyond that it's all propaganda.
Your comment makes me think you don't know what a poll is...
"An approval rating is a percentage determined by a polling which indicates the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular person or program."
Pretty simple really. How is a poll propaganda? Or what am I missing?
But until then it also shows an opening for Democrats to seize. As much as he decries polls- much of Trumps 2016 campaign was spent spitting out diatribes and themes. He then focused on the ones that were successful in polling. So if Dems want to win, they need to focus on the issues that have made Trump unpopular. Hillary's blind allegiance to themes that people did not care about and people who could not (or would not) vote were what left her with a couple of million extra popular votes that did not provide a victory. Her husband beat an incumbent by picking a topic that was import and hammering it home constantly. 'It's the economy, stupid?'
Aside from all the issues "that have made Trump unpopular" there is the simple observation that Trump touts whatever makes him look good and "decries" all that doesn't, without a shred indication he cares what is legitimate criticism and what is not...
As for the polls and how they can be wrong, well of course, just like they make clear in terms of confidence level, but I think something very different about what polls are representing now is a much higher level of awareness about who and what Trump really represents now that we have a real track record. Very different from when much of Trump's attraction was as simple Washington outsider vs the status quo, without any real public service resume to consider.
There was hope about draining the swamp and an administration that would make America proud again, but now more and more Americans are seeing something else entirely, in real rather than imagined terms. I was hopeful there was some truth about the title of this thread, but of course we all know the core of Trump's base will stand by him no matter what. Fortunately, however, I don't think as many people will be "asleep at the wheel" when it comes to turning out against Trump the next time, because they learned their lesson in 2016 the very hard way.
Seems most of the recent polls are indicating Trump may not be elected a second time for now, that hope is at least not unfounded in any case even though Trump is getting better ratings when it comes to the economy.
We have seen.
Trump's approval rating among likely voters - the only poll that will count - is now at 51% approval/47% disapproval. This represents an improvement over the 43-44% measured by the same method in mid January.
About 70% of registered voters will actually vote. About 60% of adults are even registered to vote.
That's a Rasmussen poll and when I was on their site today they were focussed entirely on right wing issues. For example, they had a poll about if Hillary felt worse than actual voters on 2016.. (Who cares its 2019)
They also always use questions which would support more conservative or right wing answers. Such as (Do you support less taxes) of course most will say yes..
Or things like (Do you support a crackdown of government spending or government waste?) Again of course they will
RCP averaged poll of polls is the only useful information out there. Picking a single poll defies every rule of sound statistical reasoning. Not sure they get rid of all the outliers, but with hundreds of polls in the calculation it is far better than cherry picking.
Right now, Trump sits at 43.4 approve, and 53.5 disapprove, almost a 10 point difference which is not so fantastic for him. But it is not much different from a year ago.
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