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as long as the economy is doing well, and trump keeps doing what the voters put him in office to do, and unless the democrats put up a candidate that will do the things that trump is doing and look better doing it, then trump will be reelected most likely.
right now the top two democrats, biden and sanders, have got nothing to beat trump. biden would be the closest to beating trump since he is a centrist, but he has no new ideas to build on what trump has done, and sanders wants to turn the economy upside down and ruin everything that has been built so far and make us russia lite.
the rest of the democrat are just screeching children with nothing but ideas created by 6 year olds who think that money grows on trees. trump will eviscerate them in the general election debates.
I think that it's not clear how popular the things that Trump is doing are with the general public. To his base - absolutely, and to the haters, nothing Trump can do will be popular. But some number of independents - like 5-10 percent who aren't approving of him currently - are going to have to like him better than the Democratic candidate. Is that a slam dunk?
A lot of posts seem to suggest that it's incredulous to think that it won't be a cakewalk for Trump to be re-elected in 2020. In reality, the environment is competitive, and the Democratic candidates aren't walking parodies of social justice warriors like a lot of you seem to think anybody to the left of Breitbart News is. What exactly makes you so confident?
Because 99.9% of those that voted for Trump are ecstatic with his performance and a few that opposed now are on board...also, no one on the Demonicrat side seems to be a good candidate except Pervert Joe and he has skeletons in his closet (maybe actually skeletons)
He will not get through the primaries without having to kowtow to the anti white left.
The anti white left can go pound sand.
Fortunately, while they are loud, they are relatively small in number, and most liberals and nearly all independents don't like them, including most POCs. So my guess is while they can whine all that they want, they won't have as huge of an effect on the primaries as the divisive media wants you to believe.
Or let me put it this way - the anti white left folks are not okay with Harris and Booker, because they are too much part of the system. They weren't okay with Obama. They aren't going to be okay with anybody.
For Trump supporters, it actually is all about identity politics. It's about white Christian identity. It's about this idea that America is a white Christian nation and ONLY white Christian culture should be tolerated.
Literally vomit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rbohm
Biden has the best shot to beat trump, but he has to come up with a solid platform the people can get behind, and he has to match trumps energy. with only one of those going for him he will lose.
hillary lost because she had neither going for her. her platform was vote for me because i am not trump, and she didnt put much energy into the campaign, and that is what killed her in the "blue wall" states.
Biden has already run for president three times. This will be his fourth. He has never broke 1% of the vote.
Hillary's campaign was more like, "All women should vote for me because I'm a woman, all blacks should vote for me because I will protect Obama's legacy as the first black president, I've been in politics for thirty years so I deserve it, and I'm not Trump".
The economy is humming and the Mueller report supposedly cleared Trump. And yet his approval rating is 37%. Not very worried about whoever the Dem nominee is. Trump’s reelection chances are toast.
ID politics and anti-Semitism drove me out of the Democratic party.
The fact is, going back 100 years, only 3 incumbent presidents who sought re-election have been ousted: Herbert Hoover in 1932, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George HW Bush in 1992.
All suffered from bad economies--the crash of 1929, high unemployment and stagflation of the Carter era, and the S&L crisis of the HW Bush era.
But the real problem for HW Bush was H Ross Perot running as an independent conservative. IMO HW Bush would have won re-election but for Perot. Clinton won with only 43% of the popular vote.
So if we discount Bush, that is 2 incumbents in the last 100 years who lost. The odds are clearly on the side of Trump, barring economic calamity which does not seem to be likely in the next 18 months.
Two chose not to seek re-election at least in part because their chances of winning were not favorable.
Two chose not to seek re-election at least in part because their chances of winning were not favorable.
No doubt true. We can slice and dice the numbers. Still to me it's pretty striking that only three incumbents have tried and failed in 100 years. It's actually more than 100, but I'm to lazy to look up the pre-1920 record. And as I say, I believe HW Bush would have won re-election but for Ross Perot.
Unless we get a 1929-style crash or a 1979-style stagflation, the odds are with Trump. Neither scenario appears likely to me in the next 18 months.
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And yet his approval rating is 37%. Not very worried about whoever the Dem nominee is. Trump’s reelection chances are toast.