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Old 05-02-2019, 06:01 PM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,670,317 times
Reputation: 14050

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Quote:
Originally Posted by augiedogie View Post
People are being laid off because cars are less popular than crossovers, suv's and trucks. Total auto sales are great.
Uh, the numbers include ALL consumer vehicles, even pickups....."light trucks and cars" - which obviously includes SUV's.

"Light truck sales, which include SUV's, fell"

One would expect that sales in dollars differ because inflation means each car should cost 2-3% more than a year or two ago....so that's not a good way to measure.

Also, the "few" who can afford the average car and up (37K+) obviously don't worry much about the $200 extra heavy duty mats tacked on top.

Earning are being boosted due to shutting plants, robotics and other productivity and customers who pay 2X the price for a "loaded" version that doesn't get you from A to B any easier.

I still would never invest in a car company....well, except Tesla, and that is very high risk.
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Old 05-02-2019, 06:03 PM
 
8,302 posts, read 5,702,626 times
Reputation: 7557
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
But it's not!

A car used to be kept for 5 years average. A truck for 6-7.

Now it's 12. The chart is ONLY rising.

Even more importantly, it's rising even after vehicles became more reliable (say about 2000 or so).

So if this keeps rising.....and if demand slacks off for other reasons ($$ spent on health care and on other things) car sales will continue to be "down" in the longer run.

We could have a broader discussion about the end of "car culture" on the horizon, but I think we are still in it.....and, given the choice, most consumers with ANY money would rather drive something newer, safer, more reliable and that goes further on the fuel used.

This makes it - currently - one large economic indicator. One which is negative.

It does differ from boats...sales of which have dropped off a cliff. Obviously most people NEED the car, so it is a combination of need and want.

But if "need" (like the "only used cars" crowd) were correct, then there would be about 6 different vehicles to choose from i.e. a minivan, a PU, a sedan and an econobox and perhaps a station wagon.

The reason there are almost endless varieties and options....makes my point accurate. Cars are ego driven items partially - not different from fashion and furniture.

And, yes, furniture sales suffer too in an economy like this. IKEA is booming.....but you won't find as many $5,000 bedroom sets moving out the door.

Again, I do think there are "simpler living" trends that tie in...but with Cars we are still not deep into that one.

" A record 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments, a red flag for the economy"
"A car is usually a higher-priority payment than a home mortgage or rent.”

"The American consumer market is a whopping 29 per cent of world market."

Let's not discount that. It's a serious number!
Yes, it is a cyclical industry.

I worked in it for several years and I'm a native Detroiter. I would know
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Old 05-02-2019, 06:38 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,865 posts, read 9,529,660 times
Reputation: 15579
Quote:
Originally Posted by augiedogie View Post
People are being laid off because cars are less popular than crossovers, suv's and trucks. Total auto sales are great.
The data I posted in the OP are for all light vehicles, which includes SUV's and pickup trucks.
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Old 05-02-2019, 06:53 PM
 
46,276 posts, read 27,088,282 times
Reputation: 11126
Quote:
Originally Posted by andywire View Post
It doesn't put American manufacturing workers to work. But the reality is, young Americans have been told to avoid these jobs, so there aren't that many with the skills necessary anymore. We've become deeply dependent on China for manufacturing as a whole. We've lost the manufacturing culture, the skill base, and a whole lot of the manufacturing base.

I agree with you that young Americans are taught that Trade jobs are bad....sad...



But you are wrong in other manufacturing (as a whole), Boeing (3 separate plants in the United States), Sikorsky, Honeywell (several plants throughout the United States), Moog (both Aviation and car part manufacturing and several plants throughout the United States), Parker Hannifin (a few plants throughout the United States, Alpha Q Inc., Timken Aero Space, PCX Aero Structures, Overhaul Support Services, Professional Aircraft Accessories, Able Engineering, AAR Aircraft Component Services, and I can list more. These are just off the top of my head that manufacture (that means make new) Aviation part in the United States.



Go ahead and Google each company name that I provided....you'll see.....and there are so many other companies that manufacture parts here in the United States.
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Old 05-02-2019, 06:58 PM
 
8,302 posts, read 5,702,626 times
Reputation: 7557
Quote:
Originally Posted by chucksnee View Post
I agree with you that young Americans are taught that Trade jobs are bad....sad...



But you are wrong in other manufacturing (as a whole), Boeing (3 separate plants in the United States), Sikorsky, Honeywell (several plants throughout the United States), Moog (both Aviation and car part manufacturing and several plants throughout the United States), Parker Hannifin (a few plants throughout the United States, Alpha Q Inc., Timken Aero Space, PCX Aero Structures, Overhaul Support Services, Professional Aircraft Accessories, Able Engineering, AAR Aircraft Component Services, and I can list more. These are just off the top of my head that manufacture (that means make new) Aviation part in the United States.



Go ahead and Google each company name that I provided....you'll see.....and there are so many other companies that manufacture parts here in the United States.
That's because they have to. It's required as part of their contracts with the DoD (as a matter of national security). Look up the Buy American Act of 1933. The automakers are primarily commercial businesses, thus aren't bound by the same requirement(s).

That said, the commercial side of these defense contractors still do a lot of their manufacturing outside the US.

See? Government regulations *can* actually create/protect jobs.
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Old 05-02-2019, 07:12 PM
 
Location: Boston
20,104 posts, read 9,011,934 times
Reputation: 18759
want a job at an auto manufacturing plant?

get an engineering degree.
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Old 05-02-2019, 07:53 PM
 
Location: Phoenix
30,362 posts, read 19,149,932 times
Reputation: 26252
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Now, if the economy is booming, as the Trump fans tell us, then auto sales should be going through the roof - right? After all, what a better expression of a booming economy than rising auto sales - no?

Well, guess what?

Challenger reports ‘troubling’ rise in auto layoffs as vehicle sales slump to more than four-year low

It will be interesting hearing the, ermm, explanations for this.
Great day for you and the entire Demonic teams...congrats.
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Old 05-02-2019, 08:00 PM
 
46,276 posts, read 27,088,282 times
Reputation: 11126
Quote:
Originally Posted by citidata18 View Post
That's because they have to. It's required as part of their contracts with the DoD (as a matter of national security). Look up the Buy American Act of 1933. The automakers are primarily commercial businesses, thus aren't bound by the same requirement(s).

That said, the commercial side of these defense contractors still do a lot of their manufacturing outside the US.

See? Government regulations *can* actually create/protect jobs.

Well, not sure where you are going? But the companies I listed do not only work for the government.....they are commercial businesses....
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Old 05-02-2019, 08:15 PM
 
8,302 posts, read 5,702,626 times
Reputation: 7557
Quote:
Originally Posted by chucksnee View Post
Well, not sure where you are going? But the companies I listed do not only work for the government.....they are commercial businesses....
The work they do for the DoD has to be done in the US. It's not an option.

Automakers do little/no work for the DoD, which is why they can get away with offshoring a lot of their manufacutring.

Last edited by citidata18; 05-02-2019 at 08:25 PM..
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Old 05-02-2019, 08:18 PM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,670,317 times
Reputation: 14050
Quote:
Originally Posted by citidata18 View Post
The work they do for the DoD has to be done in the US. It's not an option.

Automakers do little/no work for the DoD, which is why they can get away with offshoring a lot od their manufacutring.
Ah, so if we go in deficit a TRILLION a year and more for the Security State and Military Industrial Complex, then we can "get good American jobs" assured.

I think I get it now! Bringing back the PORK.
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