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Old 05-14-2019, 07:39 PM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
5,768 posts, read 3,209,279 times
Reputation: 6094

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This morning 5/14/2019, the treasury yield curve was inverted for at least the second time this year. Three month treasury bills were yielding 2.42% and ten year treasury bills were yielding 2.41%. A flat or inverted yield curve has preceded all of the recessions since WW2.

 
Old 05-14-2019, 07:46 PM
 
Location: New York
2,486 posts, read 821,512 times
Reputation: 1883
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
This morning 5/14/2019, the treasury yield curve was inverted for at least the second time this year. Three month treasury bills were yielding 2.42% and ten year treasury bills were yielding 2.41%. A flat or inverted yield curve has preceded all of the recessions since WW2.

But a recession hasn't resulted from an inversion every time. There's the rub.


There is no bubble that would cause a recession. Housing isn't out of control with 120% loans and toxic assets being sold as AAA investments. I just did a refi and I had to jump through hoops just to qualify for a 50% loan to value. I've never had such a hard time getting a loan.



Do you believe we are heading into a recession and if so, why?
 
Old 05-14-2019, 07:50 PM
 
4,699 posts, read 4,057,907 times
Reputation: 2483
Quote:
Originally Posted by Originalist View Post
But a recession hasn't resulted from an inversion every time. There's the rub.


There is no bubble that would cause a recession. Housing isn't out of control with 120% loans and toxic assets being sold as AAA investments. I just did a refi and I had to jump through hoops just to qualify for a 50% loan to value. I've never had such a hard time getting a loan.



Do you believe we are heading into a recession and if so, why?
Not all bubbles is about housing.

And while US do not have a massive housing bubble, China and severall other countries do. These days recessions are global, not local.

 
Old 05-14-2019, 08:45 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,438 posts, read 17,128,344 times
Reputation: 37134
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
This morning 5/14/2019, the treasury yield curve was inverted for at least the second time this year. Three month treasury bills were yielding 2.42% and ten year treasury bills were yielding 2.41%. A flat or inverted yield curve has preceded all of the recessions since WW2.
Good. We keep cash in 4 week T Bills, and the 4 week T Bills are currently paying pretty well.
We're going to use that instead of CD's for a while, since we may need the money.
 
Old 05-14-2019, 09:04 PM
 
Location: Pyongjang
5,701 posts, read 3,212,128 times
Reputation: 3925
Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
Not all bubbles is about housing.

And while US do not have a massive housing bubble, China and severall other countries do. These days recessions are global, not local.
Linear charts are misleading. You have to do logarithmic.
 
Old 05-14-2019, 09:07 PM
 
Location: Long Island
57,068 posts, read 26,024,198 times
Reputation: 15529
Quote:
Originally Posted by Originalist View Post
But a recession hasn't resulted from an inversion every time. There's the rub.


There is no bubble that would cause a recession. Housing isn't out of control with 120% loans and toxic assets being sold as AAA investments. I just did a refi and I had to jump through hoops just to qualify for a 50% loan to value. I've never had such a hard time getting a loan.



Do you believe we are heading into a recession and if so, why?
The inversion has preceded every recession going back decades, it has accurately predicted the last 5.
 
Old 05-14-2019, 09:08 PM
 
17,387 posts, read 9,207,763 times
Reputation: 11862
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
This morning 5/14/2019, the treasury yield curve was inverted for at least the second time this year. Three month treasury bills were yielding 2.42% and ten year treasury bills were yielding 2.41%. A flat or inverted yield curve has preceded all of the recessions since WW2.
I wouldn’t worry. It’s much too early for the Leftists to attempt to Crash the US Economy to win the 2020 Election. They will wait until late summer of next year.
 
Old 05-14-2019, 09:09 PM
 
Location: West Palm Beach, FL
17,456 posts, read 6,784,373 times
Reputation: 16334
The liberals are giddy with excitement at the chance of a major crash that would destroy the lives of millions. Pathetic.
 
Old 05-14-2019, 09:45 PM
 
Location: Native of Any Beach/FL
35,564 posts, read 20,897,588 times
Reputation: 14189
Quote:
Originally Posted by RowingFiend View Post
The liberals are giddy with excitement at the chance of a major crash that would destroy the lives of millions. Pathetic.
Like they would not be equally affected I can’t even perceive the thinking.
 
Old 05-14-2019, 10:10 PM
 
Location: West Palm Beach, FL
17,456 posts, read 6,784,373 times
Reputation: 16334
Quote:
Originally Posted by tinytrump View Post
Like they would not be equally affected I can’t even perceive the thinking.
Their disability and unemployment checks will continue to come even if there's a crash.
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