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Old 05-24-2019, 08:53 PM
 
4,985 posts, read 3,912,666 times
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no question posed.
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Old 05-24-2019, 08:54 PM
 
Location: Pyongjang
5,701 posts, read 3,195,525 times
Reputation: 3925
We are due for a recession. Get that house money ready and pounce.
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Old 05-24-2019, 08:58 PM
 
Location: New York
2,486 posts, read 815,174 times
Reputation: 1883
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
I'll just leave this here for those of you who believe a)POTUS causes recessions or b) economists can predict recessions:

How to Prepare For the Next Recession - Nov 12, 2012



When will the next US recession come? PUBLISHED - OCT 7 2013

I mean if you predict something enough, eventually you will be right.
Again, models will be correct about like a broken watch. They are correct two times a day so they must be right, right?


It's buffoonery to believe anyone can predict anything.


Before the great recession (2006-2008) hundreds of economists and, worse yet, politicians were saying "we are fine, THERE'S NO SIGN OF A RECESSION!". Barney Frank exclaimed, "there is no housing crisis"!

Now we know he was full of crap, the economists were full of crap, and now all of the same players are full of crap again!

How on earth do people like the OP keep trusting the BSers?


Quote:
Originally Posted by mightleavenyc View Post
We are due for a recession. Get that house money ready and pounce.
You really have no clue what you are talking about, yet you still do.
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Old 05-24-2019, 09:00 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,705 posts, read 9,301,918 times
Reputation: 15444
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
I'll just leave this here for those of you who believe a)POTUS causes recessions or b) economists can predict recessions:

How to Prepare For the Next Recession - Nov 12, 2012

When will the next US recession come? PUBLISHED - OCT 7 2013

I mean if you predict something enough, eventually you will be right.
The yield curve at the time of those predictions wasn't even close to being inverted. So, anybody who knew anything about anything, could easily ignore those particular recession calls.

Not anymore.

It's not economists who are making a recession prediction this time, it's the bond market.
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Old 05-24-2019, 09:04 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,705 posts, read 9,301,918 times
Reputation: 15444
Quote:
Originally Posted by Originalist View Post
Again, models will be correct about like a broken watch. They are correct two times a day so they must be right, right?

It's buffoonery to believe anyone can predict anything.

Before the great recession (2006-2008) hundreds of economists and, worse yet, politicians were saying "we are fine, THERE'S NO SIGN OF A RECESSION!". Barney Frank exclaimed, "there is no housing crisis"!

Now we know he was full of crap, the economists were full of crap, and now all of the same players are full of crap again!

How on earth do people like the OP keep trusting the BSers?

You really have no clue what you are talking about, yet you still do.
Yeah, and you know what? When the yield curve first inverted in December 2005, people were telling everybody to ignore it.

Don’t Sweat the Inverted Yield Curve: No One Really Knows What It Means
Quote:
Jan 25, 2006 - Consider the inverted yield curve as the equivalent of an economic bogeyman. It’s when the natural order up-ends and short-term interest rates are higher than long-term ones.

The Treasury bond yield curve inverted December 27 for the first time in five years. That gave shudders to those who see the phenomenon as a harbinger of recession. And yet, the U.S. economy is strong, and surveys show most forecasters think it will stay that way. So what does the inverted yield curve really mean?
Oops! Two years later, a recession hit. Right on schedule.
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Old 05-24-2019, 09:04 PM
 
Location: New York
2,486 posts, read 815,174 times
Reputation: 1883
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
The yield curve at the time of those predictions wasn't even close to being inverted. So, anybody that knew anything about anything, could easily ignore those particular recession calls.

Not anymore.

It's not economists who are making a recession prediction this time, it's the bond market.
nope

Let's make an agreement to revisit this in 1 year when there is no recession, USMCA is resolved, China is either fixed or we are crushing their economy into oblivion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Yeah, and you know what? When the yield curve first inverted in December 2005, people were telling everybody to ignore it.

Don’t Sweat the Inverted Yield Curve: No One Really Knows What It Means


Oops! Two years later, a recession hit. Right on schedule.
Nope, that was just an unhappy coincidence.


The entire driver of the recession was RE. Those 120% loans to people who couldn't afford a shack let alone a 3k sq ft home for 1/2M went bust by the tens of thousands. The banks who engineered the toxic investment scams and then got caught. NOBODY went to jail!!! THANKS, OBAMA!

Again, the foundation of a crash simply isn't here.

There is no loose money, not even close. Take it from a person who had to jump through so many hoops just to get a 50% loan with stellar credit and a supporting income. IT WAS HELL!




I am thankful for one thing. Because lending has become so tight, RE prices have been skyrocketing. Only those who can actually afford their loans are getting approved. My home doubled in value in the last 10 years. A helluva return.

Last edited by Originalist; 05-24-2019 at 09:47 PM..
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Old 05-24-2019, 09:04 PM
 
12,772 posts, read 7,919,565 times
Reputation: 4332
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
The yield curve at the time of those predictions wasn't even close to being inverted. So, anybody that knew anything about anything, could easily ignore those particular recession calls.

Not anymore.

It's not economists who are making a recession prediction this time, it's the bond market.
Just remember, every time everyone thinks they know everything about the market, the market smacks the s--- out of them.

Not saying it won't happen, but hubris regarding predicting market behavior doesn't end well for about 99% of us.
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Old 05-24-2019, 09:08 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,705 posts, read 9,301,918 times
Reputation: 15444
And another. Heck, even writers on CNN were telling everyone to relax and not worry.

Riding the yield curve
Quote:
December 27, 2005 - For those who see the yield curve as a crystal ball for the economy, the so-called inversion in the Treasury market Tuesday could be seen as a bad omen.

But before you rush to horde your money under the mattress in anticipation of another recession, relax. Unlike the last time the yield curve inverted in 2000 -- signaling the beginning of the post-bubble economic downturn -- this time around, market strategists are taking a glass-half-full stance on the prospects for the economy.
And another:

14 Reasons Why An Inverted Yield Curve Isn't The End Of The World
Quote:
January 12, 2006 - The cliffhanger ending of 2005 was whether the inverted yield curve between the two and 10-year treasury bonds is reason to believe that a nasty recession lies ahead. Historically – or, to be precise 60 per cent of the time - an inversion has predicted a recession within one year. InstitutionalInvestor.com took matters into its own hands and asked analysts, economists and asset managers whether today's inverted curve really is a harbinger of impending economic doom and gloom. The varying opinions, 14 of them in all, were stark contradictions to a looming recession. Some were actually downright cheery.
Oops!
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Old 05-24-2019, 09:19 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,705 posts, read 9,301,918 times
Reputation: 15444
Quote:
Originally Posted by Originalist View Post
Nope, that was just an unhappy coincidence.
It was no coincidence. The yield curve predicted a recession. The recession ensued 2 years later. Just as in all previous postwar recessions, it was preceded by an inverted yield curve. As I said about the 3-month/5-year curve, which has been inverted for over 2 months now, there have been no false positives. Sure, there could always be a first time, but that's a risky thing to bet on.

Quote:
The entire driver of the recession was RE...
So what? Every recession is different. There's no law saying this one has to be caused by a housing bubble. In fact, I'd be the first one to say that, if there is a recession soon, it WON'T be caused by housing.
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Old 05-24-2019, 09:22 PM
 
Location: Boston
19,894 posts, read 8,786,829 times
Reputation: 18414
keep clicking your ruby red slippers libs and wish the economy will tank.
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