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I was NOT the originator of the article. If you have problem with it, go the POSTER who did.
Hell, you can't even attack the right people and want us to give you credibility! Ain't gonna happen!
Where did I say you were the originator of any article? Nowhere. Where did I imply you were? Nowhere. I have no idea why you thought that I thought you were the OP. Obviously you weren't, because you quoted the OP.
You quoted the OP's post, which contained nothing more than a link to a treasury yield spread. And for some idiotic reason you thought that that was the Federal Reserve making a prediction. If you had actually clicked on the OP's link you would have discovered it wasn't remotely such a thing.
And your response above makes it clear that you STILL haven't clicked on the link. It wasn't even an article! I was a chart of a treasury yield spread.
Wow. Recession a year ahead. I thank Trump for his stimulating tax cuts.
You're 117 months into the second longest economic expansion in history, about to enter 118 months in 5 days and will tie the unprecedented historic longest economic expansion in history of 120 months in August and break that unprecedented historic record in September.
What more do you want?
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Originally Posted by Originalist
You have posted this a few times. Last month I believe.
Propaganda and disinformation is all she's got.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mtnluver8956
You can stick your head in the sand if you want.
Like you did when I showed all the times the curve inverted and there was no recession.
And, like you did when the economy went into a recession, and then after being in recession for several months, the curve inverted.
The curve inverted in 1966. Did you have a recession?
No, and in fact, you were in the middle of the longest economic expansion in history which ended at 106 months.
The curve inverted in 1959. Did you have a recession? Nope.
The curve inverted in 1970. Did you have a recession? Nope.
1974? That's a trick question. You were already in a recession when the yield inverted, so no.
You're 117 months into the second longest economic expansion in history, about to enter 118 months in 5 days and will tie the unprecedented historic longest economic expansion in history of 120 months in August and break that unprecedented historic record in September.
What more do you want?
Propaganda and disinformation is all she's got.
Like you did when I showed all the times the curve inverted and there was no recession.
And, like you did when the economy went into a recession, and then after being in recession for several months, the curve inverted.
The curve inverted in 1966. Did you have a recession?
No, and in fact, you were in the middle of the longest economic expansion in history which ended at 106 months.
The curve inverted in 1959. Did you have a recession? Nope.
The curve inverted in 1970. Did you have a recession? Nope.
1974? That's a trick question. You were already in a recession when the yield inverted, so no.
1979? Nope.
2000? Nope.
2006? Nope.
Let's see if you dodge those facts a third time.
Someone needs to brush up on economics and understand the lag and what a yield curve actually it Time to hit the books Dr. Mircea
The curve inverted in 1959. Did you have a recession? Nope.
Yup, there was a recession the next year, in 1960-61.
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The curve inverted in 1970. Did you have a recession? Nope.
Yup. There was a recession in 1969-70. And actually, the yield curve inverted in 1969, not 1970, so yes, it was predictive.
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1974? That's a trick question. You were already in a recession when the yield inverted, so no.
Well, sort of. But not really. The OP's data does not actually go back that far. If you look at the 3-month/5-year yield curve I described before, yes, it inverted in 1973, BEFORE the 1973-75 recession started: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=n5OI
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1979? Nope.
Yup. See the Wikipedia list above. There was a recession in 1980.
Quote:
2000? Nope.
Yup. The dot-com bubble crash recession began in March 2001.
Quote:
2006? Nope.
Yup. The Great Recession began the next year, in December 2007.
I have seen some pretty epic failure posts, but yours above takes the cake. Every instance you mentioned where you said there WASN'T a recession following the yield curve inversion, there WAS a recession. The one exception is the 1966 inversion, but that one is the exception. And in that case it was an extremely brief inversion.
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Embarrassing
Time to hit the books Dr. Mircea
