The chances of a general nuclear war a much less now than during the Cold War, and the 80s were the most dangerous.
The chances of a single device being detonated somewhere are much higher now than ever before, but a single warhead certainly would not be the catastrophe of a major nuclear exchange.
The scariest and most likely scenario of a detonation in the US is the one posited by the television movie
Special Bulletin in 1983.
Hmm. Between "The Day After," "Special Bulletin," and the real ABLE ARCHER 83, that was a pretty morbid year.