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Why do you think Trump campaigned so hard for Repub Senate candidates? The dirty little secret the Dems are hiding from their uneducated zombies is they need the Senate to convict. Their uneducated base don't know what happened to Bill Clinton (actually charged with eleven real crimes). He had a good economy like Trump does and impeachment only fired up his base during re-election while the Repubs suffered. The same will happen in reverse..
Recent poll had him down 11% versus Biden in PA. Sure, he was polling 3-5% down versus Hillary in the Rust Belt and won it by 2-3%, fewer voters than can fit in an average football stadium from 4 states combined, and polling data could be off again in 2020, but it would have to be off by a large factor.
You can't really compare Trump to Obama, Bush II or Clinton, who won 2nd terms without too much trouble.
Clinton was completely bipartisan, could get the party-line Democrats plus the Republicans who controlled a Congress that got along with Clinton. He won in a landslide.
Bush was still riding his 80%+ approval rating from Afghanistan and Iraq, neither of which had become onpopular yet.
Obama had 97% of Black vote in large quantities in swing states plus enough of the rest of his voting block. Republicans didn't have an exciting candidate who could rise as leader. Union bosses in the Rust Belt said vote Obama again.
Trump? Clearly he's the leader of a new Republican party brand that he created. But, how much of his brand was his running against Crooked Hillary? I think a lot. He can't run on his brand anymore.
Being a former member of the USWA I can tell you that we had no union "bosses" and it`s quite likely that NRA bosses had as much or more influence on the vote from steelworkers than the union did. That`s a little bit off topic but I just wanted to clear that up. I walked the walk for 35 years.
The base seems to vote looks + Hollywood/entertainment connections + anything goes.
Ronald Reagan was an actor. Trump had a TV show.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aileesic
Majority of white Americans with any sort of political conscience will vote Trump and I don't have to be one to know that.
What?
Quote:
Originally Posted by aileesic
Plus, there aren't enough blacks to make a difference in the 2020 elections and will never be again.
If the African American vote stayed at Obama's levels for Hillary, only Pennsylvania would've been the difference maker in 2016. Wisconsin and Michigan would've gone to Hillary.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aileesic
Plus, there aren't enough blacks to make a difference in the 2020 elections and will never be again. Yes, there will be leftover social programs in the near future but will be mostly gone by the time 2038 comes around. By then, those needing them will be dead or pulled out of the mainstream in some way, the black population will be around 4-5% or lots less, Hispanics will either shoot upwards around 18-20% or downwards to less than 10%.
What point are you trying to make here?
Quote:
Originally Posted by aileesic
...Hispanics will either shoot upwards around 18-20% or downwards to less than 10%. But remember Hispanics are white. Everyone else will simply go about their business in a rolling, thriving economy.
Recent poll had him down 11% versus Biden in PA. Sure, he was polling 3-5% down versus Hillary in the Rust Belt and won it by 2-3%, fewer voters than can fit in an average football stadium from 4 states combined, and polling data could be off again in 2020, but it would have to be off by a large factor..
These are the polls brought to you by the same people who gave us Mueller and all the rest. Use your noggin.
Recent poll had him down 11% versus Biden in PA. Sure, he was polling 3-5% down versus Hillary in the Rust Belt and won it by 2-3%, fewer voters than can fit in an average football stadium from 4 states combined, and polling data could be off again in 2020, but it would have to be off by a large factor.
You can't really compare Trump to Obama, Bush II or Clinton, who won 2nd terms without too much trouble.
Clinton was completely bipartisan, could get the party-line Democrats plus the Republicans who controlled a Congress that got along with Clinton. He won in a landslide.
Bush was still riding his 80%+ approval rating from Afghanistan and Iraq, neither of which had become onpopular yet.
Obama had 97% of Black vote in large quantities in swing states plus enough of the rest of his voting block. Republicans didn't have an exciting candidate who could rise as leader. Union bosses in the Rust Belt said vote Obama again.
Trump? Clearly he's the leader of a new Republican party brand that he created. But, how much of his brand was his running against Crooked Hillary? I think a lot. He can't run on his brand anymore.
Bill Clinton once said, "It is the economy, stupid."
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