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Status:
"“If a thing loves, it is infinite.”"
(set 2 days ago)
Location: Great Britain
27,178 posts, read 13,461,836 times
Reputation: 19472
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irish_bob
What can Iran do that would assuage the likes of John Bolton?
It can stop antagonising the US by shooting down drones, planting mines on oil tankers and making all kinds of threats.
It can release western prisoners, who have been jailed under false spy allegations and it can stick to the terms of the nuclear treaty that some European countries have backed in the face of US opposition.
That would be a good start.
Poking a sleeping giant with a sharp stick is never a good idea, particuarly when you have the likes of Bolton as an advisor.
If Iran is evetually attacked, it increasingly only has it's self to blame.
Russian bombers and reconnaissance aircraft are reguarly escorted out of British and European Air Spce, whilst Russuan ships reguarly pass close to our coastlines and even through the English Channel.
We don't shoot them down, as for the drone at least no one was hurt, however the Iranians are playing a rather stupid game in provocking the US through attacks on ships and drones, as well as threats picked up by US intelligence.
The European nations need to tell Iran that the current deal they have will be scrapped if Iran continues down this path.
Russian reconnaissance aircraft are intercepted and redirected many miles from UK airspace in international airspace..
Russian warships must first obtain permission to use the English Channel. Remember when the Admiral Kuznetsov went through, in preference to through the UK/Iceland gap?
Issue is, US intelligence says Iran is making threats, planted limpet mines on tankers (that a Japanese captain says his was hit by a projectile/missile), shot down an MQ-4 drone in international airspace. Iran denies everything except shooting down a drone it claims was in Iranian airspace (and we know that Iran has previously shot down US drones in its airspace).
There's really no conclusive evidence of any of it, the video produced of the tankers could be from anywhere, the drone was claimed by the US as an MQ-4, Iran said it was an RG-4, the US corrected that Iran was right (and if you get the drone designation wrong, what else are you wrong about?), the US is known to fly drones over Iran from previous experiences.
This is the same intelligence that said Iraq had WMDs. The ones Tony Blair "believed". Until there's corroborating evidence it's all just claims, and neither the US nor Iran are frankly credible.
Status:
"“If a thing loves, it is infinite.”"
(set 2 days ago)
Location: Great Britain
27,178 posts, read 13,461,836 times
Reputation: 19472
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gungnir
Russian reconnaissance aircraft are intercepted and redirected many miles from UK airspace in international airspace..
Russian warships must first obtain permission to use the English Channel. Remember when the Admiral Kuznetsov went through, in preference to through the UK/Iceland gap?
Two Russian ‘Blackjack’ Tupolev Tu-160 long-range bombers flew over Norway before heading towards Great Britain and over the North Sea in April, and they had already violated NATO airspace in terms of Norway. The RAF does scramble aircraft to try and escort them away before they reach UK Airspace and if they do enter UK airspace there is usually an official complaint made to the Russian Ambassaor.
The Russians aren't bothered and it shoud be noted that the Drone was in international airspace.
As for the Russian Navy they don't ask permission, the UK/Iceland gap is reguarly used by Russian warships and the large fleet of Russian nuclear submarines. Indeed the Moray Firth, is a favourite place for Russian Naval ships to stop off or take shelter and Russian Spy ships are ofren off the coast of various countries, they usaed to at least disguise them as trawlers but they are even more blatent these days.
All Britain and the West generally do is escort them, and vice versa in terms of western ships and aircraft, whilst in terms of reconnaissance, we actually organise an aircraft under the Open Skies treaty so they don't have to bother.
The two Russian ‘Blackjack’ Tupolev Tu-160 long-range bombers flew over Norway before heading towards Great Britain and over the North Sea in April.
The Russians aren't bothered and it shoud be noted that the Drone was in international airspace.
Its Norways responsibility to enforce it's own airspace. Most of the North Sea are international waters, you proved my point.
The drone has been claimed by two equally non-credible sources as in international airspace, and in Iranian airspace. One of those non-credible sources got the aircraft designation correct first time, and was not the owner of that aircraft. Further there is minimal international airspace in Hormuz, remember international airspace at maximum starts 12 nm from shore (13.8 statute miles) with a minimum span of 21 statute miles Hormuz has zero international waters or airspace at that span, it was south of there but there's still not a lot of international airspace.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave New World
As for the Russian Navy they don't ask permission, the UK/Iceland gap is reguarly used by Russian warships and the large fleet of Russian nuclear submarines.
The UK/Iceland gap is international waters they dont need permission. They do need permission for the English Channel, which when they use it, they obtain permission, or face a response by the Royal Navy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave New World
All Britain and the West generally do is escort them, and vice versa in terms of western ships and aircraft.
We don't just start shooting each others aircraft down or attacking each other ships or submarines.
But we might if the escort does not redirect them away, it's pointless escorting without the threat.
And these were outside UK territorial waters, and still escorted. How do you think an Iranian air or naval escort would be perceived by the US Navy/Air Force? As enforcing its national boundaries, or, as a hostile threat to be countered?
Well, after fighting in two Middle East wars, I'm glad that Trump hasn't striked back at the Iranians... At this point. It seems that there are now two camps in the U.S., pro Trump and anti Trump and by reading this thread, it's not going to change. Some of the responses are total twists of the truth and not even near the reality of the situation that is NOW happening.
News flash!! It isn't 1990 or 2003!!
I'm betting that the main reason why Trump postponed any American attacks on Iran is that they are say something totally different through official political channels... than what they're telling their people. Seriously, does anybody on this planet believe that Iran can stop an American Naval and Air Attacks on their seaports, oil terminals radar/missile sites?
Plus, once AMERICA is forced take the gloves off and knock the Iranians "clean the freak out," I hope that we sink all of those little mosquito boats since they are a constant threat to civilian shipping in the Persian Gulf.
Again, I'm glad that Trump delayed any military attacks at this point, but it will be interesting what the Iranians do next. I can almost gaurantee that if Iran attacks another oil tanker, threaten any American Naval vessel or shoot down another American drone in international airspace, Iran will be attacked with numerous crippling strikes on their country that they will not be able to fend off. And in the long run, sink their already sunken economy deeper into the abyss of no return.
The ball is now in the Iranian court... And what they do next will determine their immediate future. If the Iranians "think" that the Europeans will come to their rescue, I seriously think they're smoking crack cuz the Europeans don't really care for them, but are only interested is business contracts with them. Heck, not too many of the more stable Middle Eastern countries like the Iranians and I would bet they're not too happy the Trump hasn't sunk their entire Navy, destroyed all their seaports, oil terminals,most of their coastal radar/missile batteries and a good part of their Command and Control centers.
I pray for peace, but if war is the only solution to this problem, than make it painful and ugly to prevent any repeats.
Nonsense. If you can’t even be honest about this, cease discussing it.
Really? Really? You are the one that isn't being honest. Tell me the last time we shot down a Russian plane that flew between Alaska and Russia? When have we shot down any Russian bombers that routinely flew up and down our coasts but in international airspace.Never....
How about Cuba? When was the last time we shot down cuban planes flying near Florida? Never.
Chinese ships cruising near our bases in the Pacific? Yeah that would be never.
We have played cat and mouse with the Russians and Chinese for decades. That includes flying within a few miles of each other's recognized territory.
But hey dont let historical fact get in the way of your anti-trump rant. I have heard the song time and time again. So tell me were you upset when Obama involved us in Libya ? Syria? Yemen?
Me I was against those snafus too. I am not for involvement or war with Iran. That said I dont tale their word for squat. They made a claim, they fired a missile and destroyed an aircraft. They have to back their BS. They committed the first hostile act. It's on them to justify it. Flying a drone although annoying isn't considered a hostile act unless it was in their airspace. Seems to me if it was shot down in Iranian airspace, they would be proving it. If only to win the political battle.
Well, after fighting in two Middle East wars, I'm glad that Trump hasn't striked back at the Iranians... At this point. It seems that there are now two camps in the U.S., pro Trump and anti Trump and by reading this thread, it's not going to change. Some of the responses are total twists of the truth and not even near the reality of the situation that is NOW happening.
News flash!! It isn't 1990 or 2003!!
I'm betting that the main reason why Trump postponed any American attacks on Iran is that they are say something totally different through official political channels... than what they're telling their people. Seriously, does anybody on this planet believe that Iran can stop an American Naval and Air Attacks on their seaports, oil terminals radar/missile sites?
Plus, once AMERICA is forced take the gloves off and knock the Iranians "clean the freak out," I hope that we sink all of those little mosquito boats since they are a constant threat to civilian shipping in the Persian Gulf.
Again, I'm glad that Trump delayed any military attacks at this point, but it will be interesting what the Iranians do next. I can almost gaurantee that if Iran attacks another oil tanker, threaten any American Naval vessel or shoot down another American drone in international airspace, Iran will be attacked with numerous crippling strikes on their country that they will not be able to fend off. And in the long run, sink their already sunken economy deeper into the abyss of no return.
The ball is now in the Iranian court... And what they do next will determine their immediate future. If the Iranians "think" that the Europeans will come to their rescue, I seriously think they're smoking crack cuz the Europeans don't really care for them, but are only interested is business contracts with them. Heck, not too many of the more stable Middle Eastern countries like the Iranians and I would bet they're not too happy the Trump hasn't sunk their entire Navy, destroyed all their seaports, oil terminals,most of their coastal radar/missile batteries and a good part of their Command and Control centers.
I pray for peace, but if war is the only solution to this problem, than make it painful and ugly to prevent any repeats.
War is never a solution. It just leads to more problems and more wars and this is especially true in the complicated geopolitics of the middle east. This fight is/was 100% avoidable. If it happens it will be due to mind-boggling incompetence by Trump.
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