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That is nowhere close to the Dem strategy... the DNC hopes to win them over by calling them Nazis if they don't support open borders.
And it's very telling that the states turning purple/blue are the states on the border and those FAR from the Mexico border are the ones where fear mongering works best so they're trending redder.
We could also look at the median age in each region...
In fact, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan have been trending slightly more Red for the past 15-20 years as the "Reagan Democrats" identify less with the team Blue.
It's important to understand who these people are.
The "working man" who populates those states was largely from KY, S. Ohio, WV and even some of rural PA. They were either uneducated (at first) or became educated in the trades (machining, mold making, etc.).
There was an unbelievable rush of people to these industrial areas prior to and during WWII - when industry peaked. This largely created the American Middle Class as Unions allowed them to have cars, houses, vacations and even send their kids to college.
BUT, Unions saw declining membership as industry (and Reagan!) busted them up....companies went bankrupt (not due to Unions, but to lack of foresight as too the marketplace)......
Looked at in this light, a certain population is ready to say "we will try anything"....and that was the Reagan thing and the Trump thing. Both happen to be Actors.....
No one can claim that either Trump or Reagan created a boom in these industrial areas. Trump won by very tiny margins and hasn't been polling at those same margins since.
In other words, those ex-Union members aren't seeing jobs and...if they get a job, the pay is 1/3rd total (in inflation adjusted salary and benefits) as it was before.......
So the question you should ask is "Does Joe at the Union Hall think his vote for Trump greatly enhanced his life - his health care - his pension (if he had one)- his IRA or investments and other such things????
The answer seems to be NO.....if I look at actual statistics. But we'd have to be on the ground talking to these people day-in and day-out to make a determination.
I know quite a few working class people...and I don't talk politics with most of them. However, THEY come to me and say "I can't stand all this divisive talk and politics any more...."....
So that is a data point in this sense. Decent Joes and Janes in the heartland are not going to vote for Trump due to his hate speech and the general mess he has created in the body politic. The only way they are going to vote for him is if they have seen amazing results in their lives.
All of those states have elected Rs to state and National offices forever. Wisconsin has had R governors since the 90s, Michigan has had R Governors and Senators over the last 25 years (and Romney predating Reagan), and Pa has typically has 1 R & 1D Senator. They've all gone R for President since Clinton but those were not always big wins.
Someone mentioned Ohio- it has always had a much more Republican tilt and Indiana even more so.
I think some of what we see are a reshuffling/realignment of political bearing across the country and Trump/Clinton having much different strengths/weaknesses than their party's typical nominees. The big question for 2020 is if 2016 jolted voters into action- 2018 would tend to suggest it did since those Rustbelt states all shifted more D in 2018. This will also be the election where Ds have to rebuild party infrastructure in several states (Wisconsin in particular) after years of R governors and Obama's use of an outside campaign organization instead of existing state parties. The even bigger question is if it will matter- if Ds manage to flip NC and Arizona they really only need Pa for the win. And moving forward former swing states live Va, Nevada, and Colorado are looking solidly D. If Arizona and NC follow the paths Colorado and Va took in the 00s, Dems will have much different paths available. By 2024 Ohio could be a solid R and Georgia a purple state. There is also a strong likelihood Texas becomes a tossup in by the mid 2020s.
Actually, this is false. You may not have done your research. WI is representing by one Democrat (LGBT U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin) and one Republican (fiscally conservative millionaire Ron Johnson). WI was represented by TWO Democrats in the U.S. Senate between 1985-2011. Before Scott Walker, a liberal Democrat was governor for 8 years. Prior to that, a progressive Republican (Tommy Thompson) was governor for 20 years.
Also, MI has two Democrat U.S. senators. Both WI and MI elected all Democrats to their public offices in 2018.
I know I won't be able to find the article now, but yesterday I read one that listed Trumps win/lose numbers by state, and what he is currently polling at.
In the majority of states he won, he was down, and in a lot of those states, it was double digits.
It's early, and I wouldn't take those numbers as a truth, but it doesn't look good. Which may be wishful thinking.
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I know I won't be able to find the article now, but yesterday I read one that listed Trumps win/lose numbers by state, and what he is currently polling at.
In the majority of states he won, he was down, and in a lot of those states, it was double digits.
It's early, and I wouldn't take those numbers as a truth, but it doesn't look good. Which may be wishful thinking.
I think it means a lot because they truly know him now. Even a market rebound does not help the particular populations that make the (vote) difference. They either believe him or they don't believe him. Many knew they were shooting Crap with him...but now he has proven it without a doubt. Heck, you'd think he would have stepped in and forced that Bankrupt Coal Company to pay the employees...if only for show.
He never had any idea about the forgotten man. It was all made up by others. The Great White Hope.
I just don't think attacks on "Pocohontas" are going to have the effectiveness of those on Hillary - that the right wing had spent 30 years and billions on. It's just going to be entertainment.
Trump will win Ohio, IMHO...but I also predict he will lost the General Election by 5 million votes.
All the Polling in 2016 said Trump has no chance ..... they were wrong then.
Same thing now. ... looks like the Left only has one Play Book.
Turn out that the Citizens tend to make the decisions and not The Almighty Polls and Pundits.
Most all polls of polls were quite accurate. After Comey they quickly went to 20-30% for Trump...so you can make up your own stories about the polls being off, but they were not.
Having a 20 or 30% chance is a REAL chance. If the election were held before the Comey letter we'd have likely seen different results.
I don't know what is so hard about charts....you can see all the movements and why. The Popular vote ended up within 1% of most forecasts. That is quite close.
No, they can't get down to the .01% differences..but either can you.
While looking for yesterday's article I pulled up about 5 others that show Trump's approval by state, and it looks like everyone says the exact opposite of the OP.
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He is as unpopular in Wisconsin and Michigan as he is in Colorado and New Mexico.
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