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All the polling in 2018 said the democrats were going to take the House .... they were right then.
I wonder how long the right wingers here are going to use the 2016 polls excuse for?
Hopefully through the next election. The more they and Trump deny the negatives, the more they hurt themselves. As Trump offends more and more groups, his chances go down. I'm good with giving them all the rope they need.
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Hopefully through the next election. The more they and Trump deny the negatives, the more they hurt themselves. As Trump offends more and more groups, his chances go down. I'm good with giving them all the rope they need.
...Someone mentioned Ohio- it has always had a much more Republican tilt...
...There is also a strong likelihood Texas becomes a tossup in by the mid 2020s.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avondalist
I honestly think the Great Lakes states are trending Republican long-term. There aren't enough natural amenities to support a creative class economy here, so the region must depend on manufacturing and agriculture to survive economically. That aligns their interests with Trump-style Republicanism.
Agreed. A plausible scenario longer-term, is a ring of blue, down the West Coast, across the entire Southern boarder (except for Mississippi and Alabama), and up the entire East Coast (except for South Carolina) – notably, including Texas. Colorado and Nevada might lean blue. The result is a “blue horseshoe†with a vast solid-red middle.
And from my vantage point in Ohio, indeed the state is leaning red. Blue-oriented people, including the more liberal/affluent retirees, are moving out... while the red-oriented ones are staying put.
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri
Looked at in this light, a certain population is ready to say "we will try anything"....and that was the Reagan thing and the Trump thing. Both happen to be Actors.....
...So that is a data point in this sense. Decent Joes and Janes in the heartland are not going to vote for Trump due to his hate speech and the general mess he has created in the body politic. The only way they are going to vote for him is if they have seen amazing results in their lives.
Not necessarily. "Decent Joes and Janes" might get convinced that the Democrats are unregenerate Commies and that Trump is the lesser of two evils. Or they might reach the belief that neither party has their economic interest at heart, but at least Trump will appoint the conservative Supreme Court justices that are so dear to them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri
...I just don't think attacks on "Pocohontas" are going to have the effectiveness of those on Hillary - that the right wing had spent 30 years and billions on. It's just going to be entertainment.
Trump will win Ohio, IMHO...but I also predict he will lost the General Election by 5 million votes.
Based on how the Electoral College works, the 2020 Democratic candidate might handily win Michigan and Wisconsin, significantly lower the gap in Texas, cut Hillary's staggering losses across the Plains and South, run up the score on both Coasts, and end up +10 Million votes... and still lose the election.
And as for the Pocahontas thing, well, that just might work. Remember that Hillary had a natural constituency among investors, among internationally-minded people and those who overall benefited from the policies and transformations of the past 40 years. She was, in effect, a Rockefeller Republican. "Pocahontas" meanwhile is a populist. Centrists of various stripes, upper-middle-class people and so forth, might recoil from her as being too radical and in effect the female/Democrat version of Trump. Meanwhile the chants to "lock her up" were less about 30 years of political attacks than about a crowd's desire for a rallying-cry and a scapegoat. A provocative demagogue can manufacture such a scapegoat without 30 years of preparatory maneuvering, and if no powerful forces come to defend Warren, she goes down as Pocahontas.
Most all polls of polls were quite accurate. After Comey they quickly went to 20-30% for Trump...so you can make up your own stories about the polls being off, but they were not.
Having a 20 or 30% chance is a REAL chance. If the election were held before the Comey letter we'd have likely seen different results.
I don't know what is so hard about charts....you can see all the movements and why. The Popular vote ended up within 1% of most forecasts. That is quite close.
No, they can't get down to the .01% differences..but either can you.
Where is your evidence that they shifted to Trump after Comey.
I bet not one person changed their mind. Their mind was made up
Does it really matter how he won the rustbelt and other states as long as he can do it again?
The thing is the democrats have swung so far to the left with their whacky plans and schemes for our future that there are many voters, hopefully enough, that will recognize the danger the dems pose to the America we know and love that they will hold their noses if they have to and vote for Trump.
They call Trump all sorts of names and accuse him of all sorts of crimes but when it comes down to it he is Pro America like a typical Republican is. The Dems on the other hand are offering us open borders, amnesty, reparations and more free this and that plus programs that they don't know how to pay for but to raise taxes on the Middle class.
Trump isn't the best but come 2020 we just might find ourselves voting once again for the lesser of 2 weasels.
I think while not perfect, Trump is the best President we've had in over 50 years. That's more a statement of how bad are past Presidents have been than praise for Trump.
If Biden isn't on the ballot, he probably wins the same States and picks up Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire.
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