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If you're just judging the economy based on the Dow index you're doing it wrong.
The best part is, someone could make that same argument using cherry-picked dates. Wait, in fact, someone did. Dow is up 3% since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed. Nearly two years ago. However, those dates aren't completely cherry picked. One lines up with a major piece of legislation and other is today.
So if one side wants to pick dates to further their argument, so can the other.
But you are right, the economy is bigger than one number.
How about GDP? Trump's GDP figures don't really pop as much as they should in an "amazing economy." If this economy was amazing... so were the previous administration's. Sure, there was a bump in 2017 before Trump actually did anything. And after he did push some levers and buttons... GDP is pretty much like Obama's.
Even better, for a guy that claims he is a financial (stable) genius... he hasn't even come close to numbers from previous recent Presidents. Bush had some 3% years. Clinton hit 4% many times. If those guys were a bunch of idiots, like Trump would claim, where's that 6% he promised? How about even 3%?
The unemployment rate is good - very good in fact. Yet, just a continued trendline from the previous administration. That's not to say Trump did nothing to affect that. But, he's sort of "kept it up." Good for him. But, given that he gifted the wealthy and corporations a huge tax cut that should *cough* trickle down to us peasants, I'm still waiting for that part. The markets haven't boomed like they should have. GDP is holding steady... nothing earth shattering.
Yet, Republicans want to claim "It's the economy, stupid." They should rethink that argument. Didn't work for Clinton in 2016. And we have more of the same. If we did want to use the markets, they were up 61% from Obama's first inauguration to his second. Trump's got a while to go to hit those marks.
It will when the economy turns south. Whoever holds office will be blamed. The fact of the matter is that economies run in cycles. Massive QE can help stave off a recession, but not prevent it.
That's also what's behind the impeachment threats. It causes a constitutional crisis, and uncertainty like that has a big negative impact on the economy. Nothing the Dems would like more than to bring on a recession by next summer.
Nope, we had a Republican Congress and Senate and both Houses the GOP held at that election...the only thing that changed was the President changed parties.
To answer the OP, the Media always tries to elect Democrats and they will ignore or focus on different stories and narratives in their continuous effort to elect Democrats. as far as the trends are going, Kentucky normally elects Democrat Governors so the fact that a Dem won by 5K votes is not that surprising. Mississippi elected a Repub Governor and Louisiana hold their Governor election in 9 more days and the incumbent Democrat is going to scramble to win it.
How does the media try to elect Democrats but basically gave Trump like a billion dollars of free media attention?
... that the general public no longer cares about a booming economy.
What "booming economy"? Trump promised 5% GDP growth. We got 1.9% in the last quarter.
There's a growing feeling among the working class that the "booming economy" is only booming for the top 1% and it's not being shared with people who depend on a paycheck. Wage growth has been about 3% this on average -- whoop de doo, what good is a 3% raise when your wages have been flat for the last 8 years?
The rising cost of living, especially rent and housing, are continuing to put the squeeze on the middle class. And when they hear Trump and his minions crowing about the "great economy," they feel left out.
People are spoiled. The economy is doing well and unemployment is low so people are not concerned about it. You better believe that if they vote in socialist Democrats that will run the economy into the ground, then the economy will be the most important priority for the American voters once again.
The economy wasn't being run into the ground prior to Trump. Don't let his mob-like threats fool you.
That's also what's behind the impeachment threats. It causes a constitutional crisis, and uncertainty like that has a big negative impact on the economy. Nothing the Dems would like more than to bring on a recession by next summer.
Economy kept roaring along in 1998 and early 1999 when Clinton was under threat of impeachment and then impeachment proceedings.
GDP was nearly 5%
Markets up about 20%
Unemployment dropped from 4.5% to 4.2%... the lowest in the decade and the lowest until 2018.
You are trying to connect two things that aren't connected.
The best part is, someone could make that same argument using cherry-picked dates. Wait, in fact, someone did. Dow is up 3% since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed. Nearly two years ago. However, those dates aren't completely cherry picked. One lines up with a major piece of legislation and other is today.
So if one side wants to pick dates to further their argument, so can the other.
But you are right, the economy is bigger than one number.
How about GDP? Trump's GDP figures don't really pop as much as they should in an "amazing economy." If this economy was amazing... so were the previous administration's. Sure, there was a bump in 2017 before Trump actually did anything. And after he did push some levers and buttons... GDP is pretty much like Obama's.
Even better, for a guy that claims he is a financial (stable) genius... he hasn't even come close to numbers from previous recent Presidents. Bush had some 3% years. Clinton hit 4% many times. If those guys were a bunch of idiots, like Trump would claim, where's that 6% he promised? How about even 3%?
The unemployment rate is good - very good in fact. Yet, just a continued trendline from the previous administration. That's not to say Trump did nothing to affect that. But, he's sort of "kept it up." Good for him. But, given that he gifted the wealthy and corporations a huge tax cut that should *cough* trickle down to us peasants, I'm still waiting for that part. The markets haven't boomed like they should have. GDP is holding steady... nothing earth shattering.
Yet, Republicans want to claim "It's the economy, stupid." They should rethink that argument. Didn't work for Clinton in 2016. And we have more of the same. If we did want to use the markets, they were up 61% from Obama's first inauguration to his second. Trump's got a while to go to hit those marks.
Great post. Tax cuts will have a minimal impact. If they were so great, there'd be much better wage growth and more people would have a better standard of living than 3 years ago. The reality is, not much will change in 3 years. At the same time, I'll still stand by that the Fed's policy has far more to do with the economy than anything a President or Congress can do. After the recession, there were several changes in place to ensure the economy was more steady going forward anyone that tells you a recession has to happen at some point, it only happens if there's some large macro event to one or more sectors or some other large event - war, oil embargo, S&L scandal, massive interest rate hike, housing market crash, etc.
With democrats winning most the of the recent national elections. Is it a headwind warning for President Trump 2020 re-election chances. With the 24/7 constant attack from the left and the media demonizing Trump. Is it finally taking its toll that it has created this unhinged hatred that the general public no longer cares about a booming economy.
How can the media be "demonizing" a man who spits on POWs and mocks a handicapped person? He isn`t Fred Rogers.
What "booming economy"? Trump promised 5% GDP growth. We got 1.9% in the last quarter.
There's a growing feeling among the working class that the "booming economy" is only booming for the top 1% and it's not being shared with people who depend on a paycheck. Wage growth has been about 3% this on average -- whoop de doo, what good is a 3% raise when your wages have been flat for the last 8 years?
The rising cost of living, especially rent and housing, are continuing to put the squeeze on the middle class. And when they hear Trump and his minions crowing about the "great economy," they feel left out.
Good point. Rent/housing, higher education and medical costs are all increasing faster than wage growth and general inflation.
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They should rethink that argument. Didn't work for Clinton in 2016. And we have more of the same. If we did want to use the markets, they were up 61% from Obama's first inauguration to his second. Trump's got a while to go to hit those marks.
