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Old 11-13-2019, 09:52 AM
 
Location: Silicon Valley, CA
13,562 posts, read 10,294,966 times
Reputation: 8247

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Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
The economy stays strong and the Hispanic/Black vote will increase for Trump. In battleground states this will be a huge problem for the Dems
They're not necessarily going to credit Trump for the economy, and they aren't necessarily single-issue voters.

Some of those battleground states have had factory closings....doubt Lordstown, Ohio people are going to believe that the economy is strong for them.
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Old 11-13-2019, 09:59 AM
 
Location: az
13,426 posts, read 7,789,058 times
Reputation: 9308
Quote:
Originally Posted by silverkris View Post
They're not necessarily going to credit Trump for the economy, and they aren't necessarily single-issue voters.

Some of those battleground states have had factory closings....doubt Lordstown, Ohio people are going to believe that the economy is strong for them.
But there are those who will. And an additional 7-8% is all Trump really needs.
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Old 11-13-2019, 10:17 AM
 
13,806 posts, read 9,656,770 times
Reputation: 5243
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
But there are those who will. And an additional 7-8% is all Trump really needs.
The economy will GREAT RECESSION, again, during the next presidential term. The economy has never expanded this many months in a row.....and is over due for a downward correction. I believe the longer the recession is pushed out....the worse it will be when it happens. Keep in mind that we are essentially pedal to the metal on the economy. Monetary and Fiscal policy are our main tools to control the economy. We pressed on the gas of monetary policy to pull us out of the great recession.....but we never took our foot off the gas. We still have near record low interest rates. In terms of fiscal policy, Trump has provided a tax cut early in his presidency and the deficit is growing meaning that government spending is growing as well. What happens when your car starts slowing and you are already pressing down hard on the gas? What do you do to speed it up again?

The next recession is looming and its going to be a hard one to pull out of. Whatever party is in control when it happens will get the blame. Obviously Trump will ultimately get blamed for the upcoming mess if he is in office. If the Dems are in office they will get blamed. It will be argued that things were going great until the democrats took over. I am not sure it really matters who wins in 2020, the fate will be the same for the country. The only prize maybe a supreme court pick.

I think to a lot of people....politics is just alike a sport. People are just rooting for their team.....but the team is the country....not the parties. The masses are cutting off their nose to spite the face.....as the old folks used to say.
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Old 11-13-2019, 10:19 AM
 
72,838 posts, read 62,239,946 times
Reputation: 21790
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
Because I was in work environment and currently am in family setting where it isn't wise to talk about supporting Trump. I like the increased personal deduction on my tax return and the fact I see help wanted signs everywhere (Phx metro area.) I own rental property and rents are on the rise. But I am not going to risk getting into an argument over the fact I plan to vote for Trump.
That's not good enough. I asked you how many Black people are you around. But then you mention Phoenix metropolitan area, that told me alot more. Blacks are 5% of the Phoenix metro area's population, and 4% of Arizona's population. And something else. Hardly any predominantly Black neighborhoods in Arizona.

You might be benefiting from Trump, but not everyone is.

I've been in environments that were predominantly pro-Trump. I might be working in such an environment now. I didn't feel comfortable mentioning that I don't like Trump. At the same time, I don't want to hear their views. Politics is volatile and this kind of crap comes from both sides.

Quote:
No doubt there are Blacks who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 but who are happy with the way things are going too. But like me are careful not to discuss politics in public.
Just because some Blacks are content doesn't mean they support Trump. That still doesn't tell me much.

Quote:
The Democratic leadership underestimated something, but it wasn't the Trump vote. It was their own base. Again, how many times to I have to re-iterate this.

So what? It's unlikely the 1/5 additional support Obama got is going to show up in 2020. I believe the Dem leadership understands. Therefore, they absolutely need those who regularly vote to support the Dem top ticket - 90% plus in order to win back the White House..

But that's not going to happen if the economy keeps humming along. And Trump will quietly continue to peel off Black voters.
You don't know how many of those persons will show up again. And so what? It likely skewed the election in places like PA and WI. Some of those voters might stay home, some might go out to the pools. You don't know who will do what. Democrats know they need the Black vote. It could go in any direction. Some voters might get drawn back in. Some might not.

This is what I see. You want Trump to win again. You understand that most Blacks don't support Trump, so you grasp at straws.
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Old 11-13-2019, 10:22 AM
 
Location: So Cal
51,955 posts, read 52,378,573 times
Reputation: 52447
Quote:
Originally Posted by tb4000 View Post
Trumps cons outweigh any pros he may have amongst blacks and latinos. As one of each I feel comfortable saying that.
Funny, I don't as a white guy feel comfortable speaking for the rest of the white guys, I find it odd that you said this???

Some black and latino folks support trump. Probably not much, but I'm sure somewhere in the vast midst of the country non-white people voted for trump.
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Old 11-13-2019, 10:25 AM
 
5,051 posts, read 3,556,282 times
Reputation: 6511
Quote:
Originally Posted by tb4000 View Post
Trumps cons outweigh any pros he may have amongst blacks and latinos. As one of each I feel comfortable saying that.



His minority support has more than doubled from 20 guys to more than 40 now.
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Old 11-13-2019, 10:33 AM
 
Location: az
13,426 posts, read 7,789,058 times
Reputation: 9308
Quote:
Originally Posted by green_mariner View Post
That's not good enough. I asked you how many Black people are you around. But then you mention Phoenix metropolitan area, that told me alot more. Blacks are 5% of the Phoenix metro area's population, and 4% of Arizona's population. And something else. Hardly any predominantly Black neighborhoods in Arizona.

You might be benefiting from Trump, but not everyone is.

I've been in environments that were predominantly pro-Trump. I might be working in such an environment now. I didn't feel comfortable mentioning that I don't like Trump. At the same time, I don't want to hear their views. Politics is volatile and this kind of crap comes from both sides.



Just because some Blacks are content doesn't mean they support Trump. That still doesn't tell me much.



You don't know how many of those persons will show up again. And so what? It likely skewed the election in places like PA and WI. Some of those voters might stay home, some might go out to the pools. You don't know who will do what. Democrats know they need the Black vote. It could go in any direction. Some voters might get drawn back in. Some might not.

This is what I see. You want Trump to win again. You understand that most Blacks don't support Trump, so you grasp at straws.
Yes, I want Trump to win and yes I understand most Blacks won't support Trump but no I am not grasping at straws. I don't believe Black voters are different than others who vote in their own best interest. And Trump will see an increase in Black support based on what they (Black voter) see in their pocketbook. My feeling is Trump will get a solid 15% of the Black vote.

Last edited by john3232; 11-13-2019 at 10:49 AM..
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Old 11-13-2019, 10:35 AM
 
8,300 posts, read 2,913,314 times
Reputation: 7833
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vacanegro View Post
His minority support has more than doubled from 20 guys to more than 40 now.
And the Dems majority support continue to dwindle. Let’s see how that works out for them next election. They haven’t won the white vote in over 50 years. Dems better keep those illegals coming.
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Old 11-13-2019, 10:38 AM
 
Location: az
13,426 posts, read 7,789,058 times
Reputation: 9308
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indentured Servant View Post
The economy will GREAT RECESSION, again, during the next presidential term. The economy has never expanded this many months in a row.....and is over due for a downward correction. I believe the longer the recession is pushed out....the worse it will be when it happens. Keep in mind that we are essentially pedal to the metal on the economy. Monetary and Fiscal policy are our main tools to control the economy. We pressed on the gas of monetary policy to pull us out of the great recession.....but we never took our foot off the gas. We still have near record low interest rates. In terms of fiscal policy, Trump has provided a tax cut early in his presidency and the deficit is growing meaning that government spending is growing as well. What happens when your car starts slowing and you are already pressing down hard on the gas? What do you do to speed it up again?

The next recession is looming and its going to be a hard one to pull out of. Whatever party is in control when it happens will get the blame. Obviously Trump will ultimately get blamed for the upcoming mess if he is in office. If the Dems are in office they will get blamed. It will be argued that things were going great until the democrats took over. I am not sure it really matters who wins in 2020, the fate will be the same for the country. The only prize maybe a supreme court pick.

I think to a lot of people....politics is just alike a sport. People are just rooting for their team.....but the team is the country....not the parties. The masses are cutting off their nose to spite the face.....as the old folks used to say.
You might be right and I will be watching closely. I've already sold my home in Cal. and if I see property values in the Phx metro start to slide I will get out fast.

However, if any of this does happen it will likely be after the 2020 election.
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Old 11-13-2019, 10:56 AM
 
72,838 posts, read 62,239,946 times
Reputation: 21790
Quote:
Originally Posted by residinghere2007 View Post
The black people who like Trump usually live in a lily white community.
Generally, that is the case. I look at the states where Blacks are the most likely (while a majority still disapprove) to approve of Trump. Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota. Three things those states have in common.

1) Blacks are 1% of the population or less.
2) No Black neighborhoods.
3) A large part of the Black population is serving in the military (especially Wyoming and Idaho).


Quote:
I live in Ohio and I've seen black men with MAGA hats on, but they had white wives and live in communities that are 99% white (they and their kids are the 1% lol).
I've been through Ohio (Cincinnati area). I haven't spent much time there. However, I might take your word for it.

Quote:
I also know some black men in metro Atlanta who are Trump supporters (associates of a friend of mine w ho is involved politically in GA). They don't advertise their support of Trump with memorabilia.
I don't know where the Black Trump supporters in the Atlanta area live. I do know that where I've lived (Paulding County, Cobb County) I have never seen Black Trump supporters, that I know of. Maybe one or two and that's it. In Paulding County (which used to be 90% White until 2000, it's 77% White and 17% Black these days), which is rabidly pro-Trump, this should be the place to see pro-Trump Blacks. Quite the opposite. Hardly any Blacks supporting Trump, not out in the open anyway.

I will leave a 2nd reply to you later.
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