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It is a miniscule amount of support that Trump has amongst black males. It is funny to me that the OP chose to ignore that 85% of black voters, per their source, said they'd vote for any Democrat over Trump lol.
I'm one of the 85%. Depending on where the other 5-10% live will be important.
Is Trump's support amongst black men only raising in the south, where he will win in the electorate anyway (like GA, SC, FL, AL, TN, KY, MS, etc.) Or his his support in the Midwest and upper south and Mid Atlantic where it will be more of a factor (OH, MI, WI, MN, IL, PA, etc).
Knowing the breakdown of where that small percentage of black men resides would be the most important thing to know. I'll note that in my own family I have a few black male relatives who are Republicans. Even my own husband is more of a conservative voter and himself, but none of them have proclaimed any vote for Trump. Interestingly, they also are very into speaking of the ills of white supremacy racism and all of them believe that Trump is a white supremacists (often they state "we have a white supremacist in the White House and your black a$$ is worried about XYZ! LOL they are very dramatic). So they won't support him.
Most of the people in this forum are very naive and stuck in a stereotype about black voters. We are not like you think we are and there is a lot of infighting in the Democratic sphere to obtain our support most of the time. I do think that whoever the Democratic nominee ends up being will have to make some sort of heavy promises to black America and especially advertise in black media outlets in important local markets and in solid "blue" districts with a large black population (like Chicago - many black Chicagoans were upset that HRC didn't advertise on black radio stations in Chicago in 2016 - this sort of "news" was in all the black talk radio shows and podcasts that I personally listen to. Black Americans are heavy consumers of black radio and podcasts that speak to our specific issues so this being mentioned in Chicago, made it to Detroit - I listed to black talk radio out of Detroit - and the Detroit djs and listeners started complaining about it too. IMO it was a factor of her losing MI as the turnout amongst black voters decreased in metro Detroit and MI at large in 2016. Hopefully the Democratic candidate is aware of this factor for 2016 and won't make the same mistakes that HRC did.
I'll also note, which I'm sure some of the black male posters don't want to admit, that black males a small segment of them - probably the Trump supporters, don't have a desire to have any sort of woman in a position of power. They also have a prejudice against gays and don't like to hear about any social issues that don't have to do with black people at-large. My relatives are very much like this and even my husband is like this. He doesn't "agree" with LGBTQ lifestyles and he does feel there is an "agenda" going on - as does my uncles who are involved in our local Republican party but who are not supporters of Trump because he's a white supremacists. Black men like all other voters have a large amount of diversity.
The OP is going to ignore the 85% because of, well, gaslighting. The idea is to try and make Blacks look or feel stupid for not supporting Trump. Many of the persons involved hate the Democrats more than they care about Blacks.
It's hard to tell where any rise in Black male support for Trump will come from. It could come from the swing states. I'll go into that later. However, I think the region where the most Black votes for Trump (in percentage) would come from might be the Great Plains/Northern Rockies. I mentioned those states in another post. This is why. In a poll by Civiqs, the states where Blacks are the most likely to approve of Trump are Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and the Dakotas. Not many Blacks live in those areas though.
On another note, Mississippi and Louisiana are major outliers in the Deep South, in terms of Black males. Those are the only two U.S. states, where Blacks number 1 million or more, where Black male support for Trump is above 10%, and barely, at 12-13%. Since the Deep South is a GOP region anyway, I wouldn't look there.
If Trump really wants to make a difference, he has to look at Colorado and Nevada. Both don't have especially large Black populations, but sizable Black populations. Relative to other states, Trump approval among Black men is above 10%, 13% each. And these are Democratic states. If a large among of Nevada's Black population (Blacks are around 9% of NV's population), that could change things. Colorado's Black population is around 4%. It isn't particular big. However, consider that it's also a Democratic state. And more Blacks live in Colorado than WY,MT,ID,ND,SD, UT,and NM combined.
There is certainly more to Black voters than many people want to believe. There are those who think Blacks are "being used by white liberals". This is why I challenged some people here. I ask "how many Black people are you around on a daily basis". When I ask, I rarely ever get an answer. It's not really being naive as it is just being plain ignorant, and sometimes willfully ignorant.
The media can be a powerful thing. However, very few people understand how big Black media can be for many Black people. Many people will blame things like CNN and MSNBC. Very few people think about Black radio shows, TVOne, BET (unless it's out of resentment towards Blacks), etc.
Perhaps not but they usually get the credit when it is strong and blame when bad.
Not from me, they don't.
Now I certainly do approve of some presidential economic policies and disapprove of others, but the idea that a president can control the American economy is simply silly.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green_mariner
The OP is going to ignore the 85% because of, well, gaslighting. The idea is to try and make Blacks look or feel stupid for not supporting Trump. Many of the persons involved hate the Democrats more than they care about Blacks.
It's hard to tell where any rise in Black male support for Trump will come from. It could come from the swing states. I'll go into that later. However, I think the region where the most Black votes for Trump (in percentage) would come from might be the Great Plains/Northern Rockies. I mentioned those states in another post. This is why. In a poll by Civiqs, the states where Blacks are the most likely to approve of Trump are Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and the Dakotas. Not many Blacks live in those areas though.
On another note, Mississippi and Louisiana are major outliers in the Deep South, in terms of Black males. Those are the only two U.S. states, where Blacks number 1 million or more, where Black male support for Trump is above 10%, and barely, at 12-13%. Since the Deep South is a GOP region anyway, I wouldn't look there.
If Trump really wants to make a difference, he has to look at Colorado and Nevada. Both don't have especially large Black populations, but sizable Black populations. Relative to other states, Trump approval among Black men is above 10%, 13% each. And these are Democratic states. If a large among of Nevada's Black population (Blacks are around 9% of NV's population), that could change things. Colorado's Black population is around 4%. It isn't particular big. However, consider that it's also a Democratic state. And more Blacks live in Colorado than WY,MT,ID,ND,SD, UT,and NM combined.
There is certainly more to Black voters than many people want to believe. There are those who think Blacks are "being used by white liberals". This is why I challenged some people here. I ask "how many Black people are you around on a daily basis". When I ask, I rarely ever get an answer. It's not really being naive as it is just being plain ignorant, and sometimes willfully ignorant.
The media can be a powerful thing. However, very few people understand how big Black media can be for many Black people. Many people will blame things like CNN and MSNBC. Very few people think about Black radio shows, TVOne, BET (unless it's out of resentment towards Blacks), etc.
538 (Nate Silver) did a deep dive into this.
It basically comes out to black men under 35 with no college education who arent registered to vote have somewhere around a 30% approval of Trump. But it is more his persona than his policies. They like the strong man attitude and support him on some cultural issues, but not economic ones.
The phrase he used was "MMA Democrats", but they dont vote, and its believed that they would split between Biden and Trump, so it really doesnt help Trump unless someone else wins the Democratic nomination AND he can get them to vote. And even then, it just depends on where they are.
Civiqs, the American Community Survey, Morning Consult and well most polls, say these black voters are actually concentrated in the deep South. So it may flip some congressional seats for Republicans, but not help with the electoral college.
It basically comes out to black men under 35 with no college education who arent registered to vote have somewhere around a 30% approval of Trump. But it is more his persona than his policies. They like the strong man attitude and support him on some cultural issues, but not economic ones.
The phrase he used was "MMA Democrats", but they dont vote, and its believed that they would split between Biden and Trump, so it really doesnt help Trump unless someone else wins the Democratic nomination AND he can get them to vote. And even then, it just depends on where they are.
Civiqs, the American Community Survey, Morning Consult and well most polls, say these black voters are actually concentrated in the deep South. So it may flip some congressional seats for Republicans, but not help with the electoral college.
Can you find the link to it? I can't find the article.
A relatively large raw number of such might be in the South, but in terms of a percentage, this is what I see. Among states with the highest per capita approval of Trump among Blacks, most are concentrated in the western USA.
Unregistered voters might like his "strong man" mentality, but this is the thing. Many southern states, especially Georgia, have been known for voter suppression. The GOP of the South has been part of that. And Blacks are getting hit by it disproportionately.
In order for the Black vote to actually have some clout for the GOP, it is going to have to flip a state like Nevada.
Truth is, Trump has proven he can win the South without Blacks. And he picked up a few swing states because the Black voter turnout dropped. Also, some working class predominantly White areas, he picked those areas up in Midwestern states. Trump won the first time due to a drop in Black voter turnout.
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Originally Posted by green_mariner
Can you find the link to it? I can't find the article.
A relatively large raw number of such might be in the South, but in terms of a percentage, this is what I see. Among states with the highest per capita approval of Trump among Blacks, most are concentrated in the western USA.
Unregistered voters might like his "strong man" mentality, but this is the thing. Many southern states, especially Georgia, have been known for voter suppression. The GOP of the South has been part of that. And Blacks are getting hit by it disproportionately.
In order for the Black vote to actually have some clout for the GOP, it is going to have to flip a state like Nevada.
Sorry, its a podcast. Im sure he wrote an article on it as well, but I only listened to the podcast.
Politics Podcast: Could Trump Lose The Popular Vote And Win, Again?
By Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Clare Malone
It goes into detail about how Trump could win the electoral college, and lose the popular vote again, but by a larger margin in both cases. him flipping states like Minnesota, but losing his margins in deep South.
It talks about how low turnout voters in the Midwest and North are more likely to be white and more supportive of Trump while the opposite is true in the South(overall) and the Sunbelt because those voters are more likely to be black or Latino.
Quote:
Truth is, Trump has proven he can win the South without Blacks. And he picked up a few swing states because the Black voter turnout dropped. Also, some working class predominantly White areas, he picked those areas up in Midwestern states. Trump won the first time due to a drop in Black voter turnout.
I think you could make that argument , but it has more to do with who turned out rather than who didnt. Trump got a lot of white voters who just dont vote to actually get out there and vote.
Politics Podcast: Could Trump Lose The Popular Vote And Win, Again?
By Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Clare Malone
It goes into detail about how Trump could win the electoral college, and lose the popular vote again, but by a larger margin in both cases. him flipping states like Minnesota, but losing his margins in deep South.
It talks about how low turnout voters in the Midwest and North are more likely to be white and more supportive of Trump while the opposite is true in the South(overall) and the Sunbelt because those voters are more likely to be black or Latino.
I listened to the podcast. Those unregistered voters are currently unregistered. They have to go out and vote. There might be a "strong man" attitude. Those particular Black persons don't like Trump, but he does pique a curiosity. That is what I got from the podcast.
This is where I stand. Trump could lose in the South, but it would be certain areas. Georgia is an important state to consider. The White vote in Georgia, while still leaning Republican, also includes many non-southerners. A decent size amount of Democratic votes could come from White non-southerners. This in concert with the Black vote (Blacks are 30% of Georgia's population) could really change things.
North Carolina has a similar pattern. A large Black population and alot of Whites from outside of the South. This and a large student influence (Duke, NC State, Univ of NC).
There is a caveat though. The current governor of Georgia knows this. Brian Kemp has committed some egrigious voter suppression measures, which includes shutting down over 200 polling stations, a lion's share of them in predominantly Black areas. Brian Kemp doesn't want MORE people to vote. Georgia's biggest problem is that it's ran by a traditionalist political culture. And Kemp is very pro-Trump.
Quote:
I think you could make that argument , but it has more to do with who turned out rather than who didnt. Trump got a lot of white voters who just dont vote to actually get out there and vote.
That was part of my point. Trump's victory came as a result of many Blacks staying home instead of voting. It is as if the more Blacks stay home, the more Trump wins. Trump was able to mobilize the White working class vote. At the same time, he likely turned off alot of Black voters, in concert with the poor Democratic choices available. It leaves alot to consider if Black voter turnout was at the level it was in 2012, would Trump win, or would he lose horribly?
The "mma democrats" are fewer and far between relative to the rest of the Black population. However, I have my own theories in terms of Black Trump supporters.
1) Black Trump supporters who share views similar to Malcolm X. The attitude being "Trump's a bigot, but at least he's an honest bigot".
2) Black Trump supporters who want nothing to do with Black people.
3) Blacks who think with the same talking points the conservatives use.
The Black male support Trump can't get is the support of Black males in the Republican party. If he can't get high profile black Republicans to rally for him, most of his black male support will come from the typical so called black male republican. These are guys I call (lovingly) redneck "N" word. These are lower class black men who claim to be Republican so people won't think they are on welfare.
I listened to the podcast. Those unregistered voters are currently unregistered. They have to go out and vote. There might be a "strong man" attitude. Those particular Black persons don't like Trump, but he does pique a curiosity. That is what I got from the podcast.
This is where I stand. Trump could lose in the South, but it would be certain areas. Georgia is an important state to consider. The White vote in Georgia, while still leaning Republican, also includes many non-southerners. A decent size amount of Democratic votes could come from White non-southerners. This in concert with the Black vote (Blacks are 30% of Georgia's population) could really change things.
North Carolina has a similar pattern. A large Black population and alot of Whites from outside of the South. This and a large student influence (Duke, NC State, Univ of NC).
There is a caveat though. The current governor of Georgia knows this. Brian Kemp has committed some egrigious voter suppression measures, which includes shutting down over 200 polling stations, a lion's share of them in predominantly Black areas. Brian Kemp doesn't want MORE people to vote. Georgia's biggest problem is that it's ran by a traditionalist political culture. And Kemp is very pro-Trump.
That was part of my point. Trump's victory came as a result of many Blacks staying home instead of voting. It is as if the more Blacks stay home, the more Trump wins. Trump was able to mobilize the White working class vote. At the same time, he likely turned off alot of Black voters, in concert with the poor Democratic choices available. It leaves alot to consider if Black voter turnout was at the level it was in 2012, would Trump win, or would he lose horribly?
The "mma democrats" are fewer and far between relative to the rest of the Black population. However, I have my own theories in terms of Black Trump supporters.
1) Black Trump supporters who share views similar to Malcolm X. The attitude being "Trump's a bigot, but at least he's an honest bigot".
2) Black Trump supporters who want nothing to do with Black people.
3) Blacks who think with the same talking points the conservatives use.
What about blacks who realize they're doing better, as a whole, under Trump? Black unemployment is at a record low, and wages are finally on the increase. Most people vote their pocketbook.
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