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I think we need constant reminders that the stock market has averaged long term in the 9-10% range.
Since the start of the Trade Wars and Trump Debt Increases (tax cut), the market has gone from 25,300 to 27,800.
Given that is about two years, the compounded return is 5% per year.
That's why vacation Real Estate and many other such things are suffering. Add to that the Trumps "owning" liberals and blue states by removing the tax deducts for 2nd homes and you have a real mess.
Personally we can afford the loss and/or to hang on. But many are not so lucky....which is why more and more Americans are unable to get ahead.
When compared to 2018, September imports from China are down 20%.
The same goes for the September trade deficit with China.
Remind me why not funding China's military buildup is a bad thing...
Pick and choose. Please - tell us what the Chinese trade deficit will be for 2019?
Tell us what it will be for 2020?
Then we will compare reality - facts - to your cherry picking.
Meanwhile, AFTER I posted this thread:
"U.S. manufacturing disappointed in November, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Its manufacturing index dropped to 48.1 percent in November from 48.3 percent in October, coming in well below analyst expectations. Readings below 50 percent indicate business conditions are getting worse. Global trade “remains the most significant cross-industry issue,” Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing business survey committee, said in the report."
US Conditions are getting worse. What is your prediction? Do we wait a couple decades and then, when things turn around, we say "yeah, it was because of Trumps trade wars?".
Nuclear arms treaties have been signed, sealed and delivered in much less time than this "chinese trade agreement". Fact is, and you probably know it. Trump has zero to do with any negotiations. That's too much work and would cut into his Fox news watching time (6 hours a day reportedly)....
As I am sure you realize, the BIG amount of Chinese stuff is being snapped up now...the Holidays.
Also, we are in a Recession of sorts.....or at least a slowdown. That is agreed and evident by the lowering of interest rates and such....so we'd expect a massive cut in the Chinese trade deficit if we added up the Trump policies and the slowdown or stabilization of business activity.
As it stands if Oct, Nov and Dec match 2018 the Trade Deficit with China will be about exactly the same as it was in 2018, which is vastly higher than it was in 2016 and 2017 when our economy was pumping pretty good.
Surely we can use the "horrible" Obama years of 2016 as a baseline - about 346 Billion dollars. So I'll say my hat if we get there in 2019 or 2020. Of course, what Trump promised was much more than "matching Obama Chinese Deficits".
Lastly, if much of the difference is made up in stuff from Vietnam, Indonesia, etc.....well, that's not great news for US Manufacturing. Wasn't that the whole idea of this thing? Bring it back here?
I don't remember Trump at rallies shouting "I'm going to move some Chinese business to Korea and Vietnam".....getting shouts of approval. But maybe you were cheering and I didn't hear?
The point is that it's TRUMP who's doing this. Don't blame the bad news on the messenger. OF COURSE anyone who cares about America would point out trends that, if corrected, could help us out.
You guys act as if it were the Liberals and Dems who made bad policy to help the Chinese and Hurt the Americans. That would be Trump. Don't shoot the messenger.
... and yes, this is but two of many economic measures. Anyone, espousing any policy can find a valid stat to support their position. Stats don't live in isolation, and cause and effect is not a linear process. Even I can admit that things that this, or any POTUS does, both hurt and help the US economy. It's very obvious (to me, and most economists anyway) that Trump is neither all good nor all bad, but he is not fairing very well on the economic continuum, if you look at things holistically.
Pick and choose. Please - tell us what the Chinese trade deficit will be for 2019?
Tell us what it will be for 2020?
Then we will compare reality - facts - to your cherry picking.
Meanwhile, AFTER I posted this thread:
"U.S. manufacturing disappointed in November, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Its manufacturing index dropped to 48.1 percent in November from 48.3 percent in October, coming in well below analyst expectations. Readings below 50 percent indicate business conditions are getting worse. Global trade “remains the most significant cross-industry issue,” Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing business survey committee, said in the report."
US Conditions are getting worse. What is your prediction? Do we wait a couple decades and then, when things turn around, we say "yeah, it was because of Trumps trade wars?".
Nuclear arms treaties have been signed, sealed and delivered in much less time than this "chinese trade agreement". Fact is, and you probably know it. Trump has zero to do with any negotiations. That's too much work and would cut into his Fox news watching time (6 hours a day reportedly)....
As I am sure you realize, the BIG amount of Chinese stuff is being snapped up now...the Holidays.
Also, we are in a Recession of sorts.....or at least a slowdown. That is agreed and evident by the lowering of interest rates and such....so we'd expect a massive cut in the Chinese trade deficit if we added up the Trump policies and the slowdown or stabilization of business activity.
As it stands if Oct, Nov and Dec match 2018 the Trade Deficit with China will be about exactly the same as it was in 2018, which is vastly higher than it was in 2016 and 2017 when our economy was pumping pretty good.
Surely we can use the "horrible" Obama years of 2016 as a baseline - about 346 Billion dollars. So I'll say my hat if we get there in 2019 or 2020. Of course, what Trump promised was much more than "matching Obama Chinese Deficits".
Lastly, if much of the difference is made up in stuff from Vietnam, Indonesia, etc.....well, that's not great news for US Manufacturing. Wasn't that the whole idea of this thing? Bring it back here?
I don't remember Trump at rallies shouting "I'm going to move some Chinese business to Korea and Vietnam".....getting shouts of approval. But maybe you were cheering and I didn't hear?
You'll have to get with the Census Bureau.
September is the most recent month they have released data.
September is the most recent month they have released data.
I'll take that as the yearly deficits in 2018, 2019, 2020 will be at least 10-15% above 2015 and 2016....which is exactly where they are headed.
Believe it or not, one month doesn't count. Most ALL electronics (iPhones, computers, etc.) are shipped by air these days and come just in time. That means the new iPhones and a vast percentage of the Chinese high ticket items didn't leave China until Oct and Nov.
We will see. But the trend shows that I am likely to be close. There is no way the Trade Deficit will be reduced by any amount which improves the Asian trade balance in the long run and juices American manufacturing.
So you're saying that Bill Clinton, 25+ years ago, is responsible for what is happening now?
I don't think anyone, including myself, debates that China engages in unfair trade, and that they need to be dealt with. The issue is not that Trump is acknowledging that problem. It's how he's addressing it. By implementing tariffs in a willy-nilly manor, with no strategy. By insulting them as a country, and resorting to childish digs, by being inconsistent in his policy (he gave exemptions to his daughters product line, for example), by bowing down every time the special interest pressure of his base got strong, he has failed.
I didn't watch the entire video. If there is something in there that shows that Bill Clinton is responsible for China's sudden success, which, in the context of this discussion, is documented as ONLY the last three years, then spell it out, and back it up. Otherwise, this is just another Trump supporter who doesn't understand economics and is using a distraction to avoid facing the truth that you support an idiot with no morals, who is in WAY over his head.
Trump is winning on China. Their GDP is way off as is their stock market. True, the USA is taking some jabs too, but Trump has China in a standing 10 count. After Trump's re-elected, China will succomb. They can't withstand 4 more years of this.
2020 is forecast to be worse than 2019 in Real Estate, which is bad in itself. MAGA.
"Sales of existing homes will fall 1.8% from 2019, according to the forecast.
Home prices will flatten nationally, increasing just 0.8% annually, but prices will fall in a quarter of the 100 largest metropolitan markets, including Chicago, Dallas, Las Vegas, Miami, St. Louis, Detroit and San Francisco."
Markets now up (stock indexes) 5% per year for the past two years.
Forecast for markets is more of the same.
Over 1/2 of bankruptcies involve medical bills.
Close to 50% of the population is not making it - but inequality reigns.
Even the most rabid fan of the current Admin must accept the facts as they are. One has to laugh when people talk about a "great economy". How can it be great when Manufacturing is way off? How can it be great if more and more people are defaulting on auto loans?
One can come up with excuses for some things....but look at the Big Picture and you see a continuation of what has been happening since about 1970......stagnant wages.
This is complicated by 11K per person health care which is also the result of doing nothing.
The fact is - the policies which Republicans have backed...which, to quote Norquist, is "make government small enough to drown it in the bathtub" is what is making things bad...and worse.
No, Trump didn't do this. He's making it worse...instead of better. In addition, he is helping rip the country and world apart.
When we look back in history this will be seen as the time when China cemented it's world leadership....economically. And economics is everything...in the end.
So you're saying that Bill Clinton, 25+ years ago, is responsible for what is happening now?
I don't think anyone, including myself, debates that China engages in unfair trade, and that they need to be dealt with. The issue is not that Trump is acknowledging that problem. It's how he's addressing it. By implementing tariffs in a willy-nilly manor, with no strategy. By insulting them as a country, and resorting to childish digs, by being inconsistent in his policy (he gave exemptions to his daughters product line, for example), by bowing down every time the special interest pressure of his base got strong, he has failed.
I didn't watch the entire video. If there is something in there that shows that Bill Clinton is responsible for China's sudden success, which, in the context of this discussion, is documented as ONLY the last three years, then spell it out, and back it up. Otherwise, this is just another Trump supporter who doesn't understand economics and is using a distraction to avoid facing the truth that you support an idiot with no morals, who is in WAY over his head.
Trade with China in 2000 = 83 Billion
Trade with China in 2008 = 270 BILLION......
Add to that the Great Recession and Wal-Mart (single biggest importer) and you have the NEED for cheap goods in the USA to keep the party going. We may not be able to pay the rent and medical costs but we can buy some dirt cheap computers and plastic stuff.
Put another way, Trade with China went up 320% during the Bush Years.
Trade with China went up 60% (less than 1/5th as much) during the Obama years.
It's not likely to rise too much in percentage from here on since it already is so vast...I mean most EVERYTHING is made in China. But it will likely hold steady or increase from the "high highs" of the first two Trump years (400+ Billion)
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