Quote:
Originally Posted by vacommonwealth
Yes, the Democrats need to do the math on keeping the House
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I'm sure they did the math.
Don't be too certain that Trump's impeachment will kill the Democratic party's members from winning their elections next year.
The historical facts from the previous impeachment say otherwise. The Clinton impeachment destroyed the Republican leadership in the House, but it didn't harm the Repub members of the House. The Repubs still kept their House majority into the 2000 election when Bush was elected, and that majority lasted for another 6 years until 2006.
The Democrats only took it away from them for 4 years, and the Republicans regained it again. And then kept it for another 12 years.
The only other previous historical example is Nixon's near-impeachment. It only went as far as the preliminary stages because Nixon resigned quickly once it began. His resignation was as low as a party could go, especially after his landslide election, but even that didn't hurt the members of the House or the Senate.
The Republicans never got crushed afterward. They mostly kept their seats, and the party underwent a normal round of win some, lose some, as it always happens in every election.
Here's the basic facts:
Voters do not vote for their representatives like they vote for their Presidents. The voters feel differently about their Representatives and Senators than their Presidents, so a damaged President seldom damages his party very much.
Another fact is once one party becomes entrenched in its majority in either house of Congress, it is damned hard to displace them. The voters have to be very discontented to do it, and their discontent seldom lasts for very long. Once the problem goes away, the voters are more likely to go back to their old ways than to seek new ways as permanent change.
In other words, conservatives will always be conservative, and liberals always liberal.
The voters who are always undecided can swing a house in Congress, but they're seldom a large enough group to make the swing last for very long.