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Old 12-21-2019, 04:56 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
3,975 posts, read 1,087,194 times
Reputation: 2085

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariadne22 View Post
I always sensed that Nate saw something in those polls that others hadn't. When I read 538 in 2016, I never read "it was in the bag" - which left me with a very uneasy feeling at the time. It was always clear to me that Nate & Co. felt Trump could win. Thus, Trump's win did not come as a surprise to me. It was, nonetheless, a horrible, unthinkable result. I remember posting at the time "put me in a coma for the next four years."

And, the past four years with the tantrum-throwing, screaming, criminal, name-calling four-year old Putin sockpuppet in the WH playpen have been horrible beyond anything I could imagine. I never imagined the depths this despicable creature would plumb - and it never ends. I really did think he was better than that. He's brought out the absolute worst in this country for all the world to see and mock.

A horrible, horrible nightmare for the country. If he's reelected, this country will truly be in the end times.
If you ask me this is nothing more than a "flash in the pan" populist movement that got out over it's banks and it's going to end.
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Old 12-21-2019, 04:58 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
3,975 posts, read 1,087,194 times
Reputation: 2085
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Nate Silver is a con. He said Trump would never be nominated and when he was wrong on that, said he'd never be elected. The rest. TDS.
How was he a con if he was about the only "pollster analyst" saying Trump could win?
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Old 12-21-2019, 04:59 PM
 
13,342 posts, read 6,058,881 times
Reputation: 15754
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA View Post
Politico/Morning Consult poll.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/1...achment-088812

Fox had 50% in favor of impeach-and-remove not long ago. Now we are at 52%.
Keep dreaming.

But hey, we all know he is not going to be convicted in the Senate(assuming Pelosi quits her shenanigans), so the best way for us to determine whether the majority of American citizens really believe that, will be the election results in less than one year.

If he is re-elected, please update this thread to tell us how the crow tastes.



`
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Old 12-21-2019, 05:10 PM
 
9,982 posts, read 3,891,794 times
Reputation: 13120
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariadne22 View Post
I always sensed that Nate saw something in those polls that others hadn't. When I read 538 in 2016, I never read "it was in the bag" - which left me with a very uneasy feeling at the time. It was always clear to me that Nate & Co. felt Trump could win.
538 had Clinton with a 71% chance of winning and Trump at 29%. Those who understand statistics will say that Nate at 538 was correct: while the odds favor Clinton, there is an almost 1-in-3 chance Trump will win. Estimating the odds are not the same as a prediction!

This happens almost every weekend in sports: a football team with a losing record, a 14-point underdog, goes into a game with a first place team and pulls off an upset victory. The oddsmakers who said the better team was favored to win were correct. They weren't predicting a win, only estimating the probability of a win.
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Old 12-21-2019, 05:30 PM
 
46,475 posts, read 20,169,343 times
Reputation: 30854
Trump was impeached by the House for trying to get a foreign government to undermine the election. If nothing else, it puts Trump on notice that he and his campaign are being watched. There may well be other articles of impeachment. We'll see.

To say that Congress should twiddle its thumbs and wait for the election to decide, an election he is cheating at even at this moment, is beyond stupid.
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Old 12-21-2019, 05:38 PM
 
4,265 posts, read 3,320,777 times
Reputation: 8289
Utter croc of ****. You picked the fakest, most rigged poll you can find. The reality on the ground does not support that there is ANY support for impeachment in swing stats, where all internal polling on both sides is favoring Trump, ant he Republicans are raising absurd amounts of cash.

In an event, the Realclear average. Eliminate those two ridiculously fake polls, fake as all the polls are.

Poll Date Sample
Yes/Remove
No
Spread
RCP Average 12/2 - 12/17 -- 47.2 48.0 No +0.8
NBC/WSJ 12/14 - 12/17 900 A 48 48 Tie
Economist 12/14 - 12/17 1164 RV 50 42 Yes/Remove +8
CNN 12/12 - 12/15 888 RV 45 48 No +3
Politico 12/14 - 12/15 1991 RV 50 43 Yes/Remove +7
Quinnipiac 12/11 - 12/15 1390 RV 45 51 No +6
ABC/WP 12/10 - 12/15 RV 48 48 Tie
USA Today 12/10 - 12/14 1000 RV 45 50 No +5
NPR/PBS 12/9 - 12/11 1508 RV 46 49 No +3
IBD/TIPP 12/5 - 12/14 905 A 49 49 Tie
FOX News 12/8 - 12/11 1000 RV 50 46 Yes/Remove +4
Monmouth 12/4 - 12/8 838 RV 44 51 No +7
Gallup 12/2 - 12/15 1025 A 46 51 No +5
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Old 12-21-2019, 05:41 PM
 
Location: Near the State Capital
349 posts, read 244,891 times
Reputation: 508
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA View Post
Politico/Morning Consult poll.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/1...achment-088812

Fox had 50% in favor of impeach-and-remove not long ago. Now we are at 52%.
November 2020 is the best poll.
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Old 12-21-2019, 07:56 PM
 
9,982 posts, read 3,891,794 times
Reputation: 13120
Quote:
Originally Posted by cachibatches View Post
Utter croc of ****. You picked the fakest, most rigged poll you can find.
I wasn't cherry-picking. The poll just came out, it was fresh, so I shared it.
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Old 12-21-2019, 08:04 PM
 
Location: 20 years from now
6,366 posts, read 6,452,802 times
Reputation: 4463
Quote:
Originally Posted by cachibatches View Post
Utter croc of ****. You picked the fakest, most rigged poll you can find. The reality on the ground does not support that there is ANY support for impeachment in swing stats, where all internal polling on both sides is favoring Trump, ant he Republicans are raising absurd amounts of cash.

In an event, the Realclear average. Eliminate those two ridiculously fake polls, fake as all the polls are.

Poll Date Sample
Yes/Remove
No
Spread
RCP Average 12/2 - 12/17 -- 47.2 48.0 No +0.8
NBC/WSJ 12/14 - 12/17 900 A 48 48 Tie
Economist 12/14 - 12/17 1164 RV 50 42 Yes/Remove +8
CNN 12/12 - 12/15 888 RV 45 48 No +3
Politico 12/14 - 12/15 1991 RV 50 43 Yes/Remove +7
Quinnipiac 12/11 - 12/15 1390 RV 45 51 No +6
ABC/WP 12/10 - 12/15 RV 48 48 Tie
USA Today 12/10 - 12/14 1000 RV 45 50 No +5
NPR/PBS 12/9 - 12/11 1508 RV 46 49 No +3
IBD/TIPP 12/5 - 12/14 905 A 49 49 Tie
FOX News 12/8 - 12/11 1000 RV 50 46 Yes/Remove +4
Monmouth 12/4 - 12/8 838 RV 44 51 No +7
Gallup 12/2 - 12/15 1025 A 46 51 No +5
Yup, I tend to rely on Gallup as a preference. They analyze the data pretty unbiasedly.

Here's what they have to say as of December 18, 2019:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/271691/...ment-dips.aspx
Quote:
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
45% approve of Trump's job performance, marking his third consecutive increase
Support for impeachment still contentious, but continues to dip, now at 46%
Congress enjoys one of its highest ratings of the Trump era, now at 27%
Quote:
Currently, 46% support impeachment and removal, down six percentage points from the first reading after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the impeachment inquiry. Meanwhile, 51% oppose impeachment and removal -- up five percentage points over the same period.
it even seems to correlate with What Andrew Yang said after the debates with CNN Andrew Cuomo, when Cuomo tried to get him to fabricate the idea that everyone during the Dem primaries were galvanized by impeachment:

Yang: "To be honest, when I was out in Iowa talking to people, NO ONE brought up the impeachment, not one person"

It seems to reflect in the polls taken by Gallup
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Old 12-21-2019, 08:09 PM
 
52,430 posts, read 23,026,868 times
Reputation: 21056
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariadne22 View Post
What Trump has shown is how really lowbrow this country is. 45% of 'em with no more decency and manners than barnyard animals. It is disgusting, and the world looks at us - and laughs.

Gee Aridene22. Did you you just call 148,000,000 of your fellow citizens in the United States, "barnyard animals"?


If so, then how sad for you and the other Democrats who think like this. Must be a miserable way to live to hold such contempt for your fellow citizens. The world isn't laughing with you, they are sad for you.

Last edited by WaldoKitty; 12-21-2019 at 08:19 PM..
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