Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
11,974 posts, read 25,470,414 times
Reputation: 12187
Advertisements
Most legal immigrants are moderate Democrats, liking increased safety nets but socially moderate or even conservative. Most of the far left activists are White Liberals. I actually see the Democrat social platform being forced back to the middle as the party becomes non White super majority. White Liberals act shocked when most Blacks support Biden over far left candidates, even Black ones. Or when there is a Latino backlash over White Liberals forcing the term Latinex down their throats. But being a Democrat is not the same as being a Far Left Social Liberal.
Actually, Bob’s closer to the correct answer than you on this one.
By 2045, there are projected to be 14 that are minority-minority, leaving 36 majority white states. The minority-majority states will be:
New Mexico (since 1994)
California (2000)
Texas (2004)
Nevada (2019)
Maryland (2020)
Arizona (2023)
Georgia (2023)
Florida (2028)
Alaska (2030)
New York (2031)
Louisiana {2039)
Illinois (2043)
Mississippi (2043)
Delaware (2044)
United States total population (2044)
But, a majority of population is not the same as majority of eligible voters. The minority population is and will remain far younger than the white population. By 2045, only these states will be minority majority in terms of eligible voters:
New Mexico (2006)
California (2016)
Texas (2019)
Nevada (2030)
Maryland (2031)
Georgia (2036)
Alaska (2037)
Arizona (2038)
New Jersey (2040)
Florida (2043)
New York (2045)
That’s only 11 states, so 39 are projected to still have a majority of white voters by 2045.
But that’s only part of the story. Lost in the “browning of America” hysteria is that the split in the white vote among educational lines is as significant politically as the demographic change in itself.
It’s easier to add an additional post than try to add to the long one above.
It was never an assertion, as far as I know, that the racial changes alone would cause massive political change. It’s that the combination of increasing percentage of minority vote, plus increasing percentage of white college graduate voters coupled with a falling percentage of white non-college voters would favor the Democrats, because they are favored by the demographic groups that are growing while the Republicans are heavily reliant on the one demographic that is falling.
How the white college grad vote falls on a state-by-state basis will largely tell the tale of when or if states flip from red to blue.
It’s that the combination of increasing percentage of minority vote, plus increasing percentage of white college graduate voters coupled with a falling percentage of white non-college voters would favor the Democrats.
You assume the minority vote is a democratic party certainty.
democrats assume skin color determines a voter's allegiance. I think economic success will impact more voters than party allegiance.
we will see who is right in a few months.
Last edited by texan2yankee; 12-26-2019 at 03:33 PM..
You assume the minority vote is a democratic party certainty.
democrats assume skin color determines a voter's allegiance. I think economic success will impact more voters than party allegiance.
we will see who is right in a few months.
Well, if you're using the economic argument - why do plenty of well-to-do Asians (and there are lots in my area) still won't vote for Republicans? Not to mention very well-off African Americans will have little to do with voting GOP? Let's put it this way - if we're doing better, it's not necessarily due to Trump.
I've never assumed that people of color are locks for the Democratic Party, but I've seen the GOP throw away their opportunities with these ethnic communities that have little to do with economic matters.
Last edited by silverkris; 12-26-2019 at 06:28 PM..
Well, if you're using the economic argument - why do plenty of well-to-do Asians (and there are lots in my area) still won't vote for Republicans? Not to mention very well-off African Americans will have little to do with voting GOP? Let's put it this way - if we're doing better, it's not necessarily due to Trump.
I've never assumed that people of color aren't locks for the Democratic Party, but I've seen the GOP throw away their opportunities with these ethnic communities that have little to do with economic matters.
And Dems throw away their opportunity to get white votes. They haven’t won the white vote in over 55 years.
And Dems throw away their opportunity to get white votes. They haven’t won the white vote in over 55 years.
Maybe not WORMs (white, old, reactionary males) but they're not a growing demographic.
Politics is all about building coalitions. The GOP is resting on a pretty dedicated but stagnant base - and it's appeals to nativism, xenophobia, and white nationalist grievance politics is turning off other constituent groups that are growing larger graphically.
Like I've said many times - a political party doesn't have to win a majority of a community to win elections, but they do have to peel off enough to win. Elections are won in the margins, as they say.
Maybe not WORMs (white, old, reactionary males) but they're not a growing demographic.
Politics is all about building coalitions. The GOP is resting on a pretty dedicated but stagnant base - and it's appeals to nativism, xenophobia, and white nationalist grievance politics is turning off other constituent groups that are growing larger graphically.
Like I've said many times - a political party doesn't have to win a majority of a community to win elections, but they do have to peel off enough to win. Elections are won in the margins, as they say.
Well then what should democrats do to more of the white vote? Or should they simply get more voters through amnesty and anchor babies? That seems to be working.
The GOP is resting on a pretty dedicated but stagnant base - and it's appeals to nativism, xenophobia, and white nationalist grievance politics is turning off other constituent groups that are growing larger graphically.
Grievance politics? That's a good one, seeing as the democrats' "coalition" is comprised almost exclusively by groups who have some grievance against the WORMs.
It will effectively disappear like it has in California.
It hasn't disappeared in Texas. But then again, Texas operates differently.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
