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And recall that I said "as high as the 30s with black voters" and was not saying it's his polling average or some rock solid metric. In the Emerson poll article, they even reference polls where he is in the teens. So it can be as high as that, with margins of error in the 7-8% range, and I put his current polling average (using my off the cuff average and the "Trump always under-polls" correction) with black voters somewhere at 18-21%, and that will be adjusted by Dem enthusiasm just as Indentured Servant posits. If the Dems get serious enthusiasm, that percent will go down to like 14-16%, but if they don't, he can easily top 20%. Regardless, it's a good bit higher than the 4-5% most GOP pols get from black voters.
Here is an opinion piece about the Emerson poll and about blacks voting for Trump in 2020 that I found very interesting:
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 24 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,557 posts, read 16,542,682 times
Reputation: 6041
Quote:
Originally Posted by Volobjectitarian
Trump wasn't the one running in 2018.
Did enthusiasm for Obama ever translate down the ballot for Democrats? Ever? Nope.
Charisma is non-transferable.
False equivalency.
The argument being made is a shift in black support. no one switched sides in 2010, Republicans just got their voters to turn out while Dems stayed home.
The argument for Trump is that he is changing black minds, that didnt happen in 2018. Even if Trump himself wasnt on the ballot, they should have supported his allies. Even if it was at lower turnout levels.
Let's be honest. It would take a miracle to change the black vote. Not because the democrat party has done a damned thing for people of color in the last 30 years, but because people are loath to change.
Blacks should both register and vote Independent. Do they really believe that Nancy Pelosi gives a damned about them or can possibly relate to them? Sanders? Warren? Biden? Schumer? Hillary? LOL Waters?
No they need to break away from the democrat party and make both the Democrats and the GOP earn their votes.
I disagree with the bold. As my "byline" indicates, I am a former liberal who changed to moderate starting in 2009, after always voting for the Democrat POTUS candidate from 1972 through 2008, and I have gone from a right-in-the-center moderate to "leans conservative" in just the last year! So if an "old lady" can make such a change, then why can't many blacks?
I do agree with your last two paragraphs, though! (Well, maybe not go to the GOP, but I think they need to not vote for an extremely liberal Democrat in 2020 in protest and show the DNC that they need to pay more attention to the needs of U.S. citizens who are underprivileged.)
The argument being made is a shift in black support. no one switched sides in 2010, Republicans just got their voters to turn out while Dems stayed home.
The argument for Trump is that he is changing black minds, that didnt happen in 2018. Even if Trump himself wasnt on the ballot, they should have supported his allies. Even if it was at lower turnout levels.
Trump wasn't running in 2018.
The equivalency is spot on btw, because 2010 was going to be the year the final destruction of the GOP took place, because Obama was teh awesomez!! But Obama wasn't running, everyone else was. How'd 2010 go again? Federal, state, local? All those independents and center right right folks were all going to abandon the GOP and join team Obama for the big win...except no, they didn't.
Obama was singular to himself. No coattails, same as Trump. Black support for the GOP is quite possibly and even likely still around 4-5%, but that isn't Trump the singular individual. He might get 20% of the black vote next year while the rest of the GOP gets nada. Charisma is non-transferable.
He's polling individually, among minorities, better than any GOP pol in the last 30 years. The party can go pound sand, but he's ding fine.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 24 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,557 posts, read 16,542,682 times
Reputation: 6041
Quote:
Originally Posted by Volobjectitarian
Trump wasn't running in 2018.
The equivalency is spot on btw, because 2010 was going to be the year the final destruction of the GOP took place, because Obama was teh awesomez!! But Obama wasn't running, everyone else was. How'd 2010 go again? Federal, state, local? All those independents and center right right folks were all going to abandon the GOP and join team Obama for the big win...except no, they didn't.
No, it wasnt spot on, and no one said 2010 was going to be the final destruction of the GOP, again, its not hard to google something like Cook Political report and see people saw dems taking a net lose in 2010 way before election night.
2010 was only a decade ago, i dont see how you people rewrite history in such a way.
Quote:
Obama was singular to himself. No coattails, same as Trump. Black support for the GOP is quite possibly and even likely still around 4-5%, but that isn't Trump the singular individual. He might get 20% of the black vote next year while the rest of the GOP gets nada. Charisma is non-transferable.
He's polling individually, among minorities, better than any GOP pol in the last 30 years. The party can go pound sand, but he's ding fine.
Barack Obama absolutely had coattails in 2008, less so in 2012,but still , he had them.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 24 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,557 posts, read 16,542,682 times
Reputation: 6041
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjbradleynyc
Trump himself wasn't on the ticket. I think folks are more energized to vote if it is a presidential election.
I dont deny the second half of your post, but if the argument from the GOP is about say "Blexit" or "walk away", then shouldnt those numbers be reflected at every level ?
It shouldnt just be Trump, it should be the GOP overall, less you actually claim the same person voting for John Lewis in Georgia is also going to cast a vote for Trump.
I dont deny the second half of your post, but if the argument from the GOP is about say "Blexit" or "walk away", then shouldnt those numbers be reflected at every level ?
It shouldnt just be Trump, it should be the GOP overall, less you actually claim the same person voting for John Lewis in Georgia is also going to cast a vote for Trump.
I think Trump is an anomaly. I don't think past trends and presidents can predict outcomes for him. He's definitely a disruptor.
I think a lot of folks who will vote for him behind a curtain at the ballot won't tell a lot of their family or friends. It can't be reflected in polls.
Trump has always had black friends and has been super supportive of the black community. The mainstream media wants the public to think otherwise, therefore painting him as a "racist." Further eroding any trust in the media.
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