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I see this Suleimani hit as a brilliant big picture move by Trump. For the last 40 years, Iran has been using their "proxy" terror groups as a means of accomplishing their main goals - growing Iranian influence throughout the middle east until their area of influence is to big to stop, and then annihilating Israel. It's the only means they have of pushing their evil agenda without provoking the US into all out war, which they know would result in their own complete destruction. And for 40 years, they have been allowed to get away with it, but no more.
Think about it...if I go give my next door neighbor a Billy club and $100 to go hit you in the head, I'm still guilty of assaulting you, just as much as he is, right? Any attack by Hamas, Hezbollah, or Popular Mobilization Forces militia on Iran's neighbors, US forces or allies, should be treated as a direct attack by Iran!! Trumps killing of Suleimani was a way of telling Iran that this is a new ball game, and that this sort of "attack by proxy" will no longer be tolerated. Seems to have worked too, given Iran's carefully thought out weak response. Now that the message has been delivered, we can get back to forcing Iran to change their bad behaviors with increased sanctions and tough diplomacy.
Only time will tell if this strategy works, but after 40 years, it was time to tell them flat out that their terror tactics would no longer be tolerated. Someone's got to stand up and punch the neighborhood bully back, right? It's the only thing that bullies, and terror states, ever understand.
When I see a title like, "I can't believe the market....today" I laugh because the market does what it does because people react and are emotional (and machines that trade are programmed by people). 1 tweet can make markets drop; 1 tweet can assuage. Attention spans of 7 to 10 seconds, if that long, or 140 letters or less are what people can or are willing to absorb.
I agree 100% with this assessment. I go one step further: those big time money managers, whose combined actions control the markets, are idiots. Trying to guess what the idiots will do can waste a lot of time and is unlikely to result in any understanding or the ability to predict future changes.
I agree 100% with this assessment. I go one step further: those big time money managers, whose combined actions control the markets, are idiots. Trying to guess what the idiots will do can waste a lot of time and is unlikely to result in any understanding or the ability to predict future changes.
The people you are calling idiots do their job every single day and if they do not produce results they are often replaced quite quickly. Most of them have grown quite wealthy doing this job.
I'm not sure I would refer to them as idiots. What did you do for a living?
Regardless, sudden and large drops are generally not the result of a person making a decision, but an algo going off due to some programmed trade.
These trades are not always right but statistically over the long run do very well which is why just about everyone with the means uses them in some form.
...sudden and large drops are generally not the result of a person making a decision, but an algo going off due to some programmed trade.
These trades are not always right but statistically over the long run do very well which is why just about everyone with the means uses them in some form.
Do we have proof that high-frequency trading beats buy-and-hold?
I agree 100% with this assessment. I go one step further: those big time money managers, whose combined actions control the markets, are idiots. Trying to guess what the idiots will do can waste a lot of time and is unlikely to result in any understanding or the ability to predict future changes.
Micro-movements can elicit bigger gulps, depending on the programming. From a purely human perspective, triggered & fearful can be virulent, as we've seen. Avoiding those who are triggered is an important tactic to practice.
North Korea is still working on their nukes and had no intention of stopping. They kissed up to Trump bevause they blew up their own testing facility and needed to buy time. They got what they wanted - respect and recignition on tbe internstional stage, and we got nothing.
Right. Short of war or assassination, that's going to continue.
Seriously, Trump met with Rocketman, called him his name, shook his hand, pranced around the demilitarized zone....called him a friend, ratcheted up sanctions, got China to follow them, stopped some expensive war games that were never going to happen and got him to shut up for a couple years.
Why waste time with a definition of denuclearization? Both sides know it isn't going to happen, so why get held up on the details and mess up a photo op. Fatboy walks home thinking he's clever only to realize he didn't get anything but a picture traded for a piece of paper....but no happy meal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57
Yes, the U.S. has a long history of interventions and meddling in other countries affairs that only makes things worse. With Iran in particular. I want to know if this Iran action was worth it. Somehow I doubt it.
This isn't overz and we'll be paying for it for decades.
Iran has already been our enemy for 50 years. Not a frenemy but an openly hostile, I'd rather arm Saddam to fight you than talk to you multi-decades enemy. Talking is wasted time. In extremely short order, Trump has just forged a new agreement, in a language Tehran can understand. We're not going to contract. You kill us, we hit back harder. Tehran fired back and the US showed it wasn't a war hawk. Nothing said, nothing signed, understanding nailed down. This is how we're going to co-exist.
And that is magic to Wall Street. Trump's not going to get distracted in the malaise. He's not going to ignore it. He solved the problem and is now ready to begin hotboxing the economy some more.
With it my 2020 went from bearish to bullish. This guy is the President we need.
I see this Suleimani hit as a brilliant big picture move by Trump. For the last 40 years, Iran has been using their "proxy" terror groups as a means of accomplishing their main goals - growing Iranian influence throughout the middle east until their area of influence is to big to stop, and then annihilating Israel. It's the only means they have of pushing their evil agenda without provoking the US into all out war, which they know would result in their own complete destruction. And for 40 years, they have been allowed to get away with it, but no more.
Think about it...if I go give my next door neighbor a Billy club and $100 to go hit you in the head, I'm still guilty of assaulting you, just as much as he is, right? Any attack by Hamas, Hezbollah, or Popular Mobilization Forces militia on Iran's neighbors, US forces or allies, should be treated as a direct attack by Iran!! Trumps killing of Suleimani was a way of telling Iran that this is a new ball game, and that this sort of "attack by proxy" will no longer be tolerated. Seems to have worked too, given Iran's carefully thought out weak response. Now that the message has been delivered, we can get back to forcing Iran to change their bad behaviors with increased sanctions and tough diplomacy.
Only time will tell if this strategy works, but after 40 years, it was time to tell them flat out that their terror tactics would no longer be tolerated. Someone's got to stand up and punch the neighborhood bully back, right? It's the only thing that bullies, and terror states, ever understand.
You're acting like this is the Avengers or something, and they took out Thanos or Dr. Doom. I mean come on, "evil?" Can you even name anything Suleimani did in his career other than get assassinated?
From the Iranian perspective, the U.S. has been meddling in their affairs for more than half a century and their troops have no business in the middle east. I suppose we will never learn that lesson.
If the shoe was on the other foot, I'd bet that YOU would be fighting in a resistance against the foreign interlopers from Asia who put their troops in North America to control its resources.
My guess is that they didn't escalate further because there are probably interests within Iran who are not at all broken up about Suleimani's death and probably benefited from it, and a war over his corpse would damage their standing.
Right. Short of war or assassination, that's going to continue.
Seriously, Trump met with Rocketman, called him his name, shook his hand, pranced around the demilitarized zone....called him a friend, ratcheted up sanctions, got China to follow them, stopped some expensive war games that were never going to happen and got him to shut up for a couple years.
Why waste time with a definition of denuclearization? Both sides know it isn't going to happen, so why get held up on the details and mess up a photo op. Fatboy walks home thinking he's clever only to realize he didn't get anything but a picture traded for a piece of paper....but no happy meal.
Iran has already been our enemy for 50 years. Not a frenemy but an openly hostile, I'd rather arm Saddam to fight you than talk to you multi-decades enemy. Talking is wasted time. In extremely short order, Trump has just forged a new agreement, in a language Tehran can understand. We're not going to contract. You kill us, we hit back harder. Tehran fired back and the US showed it wasn't a war hawk. Nothing said, nothing signed, understanding nailed down. This is how we're going to co-exist.
And that is magic to Wall Street. Trump's not going to get distracted in the malaise. He's not going to ignore it. He solved the problem and is now ready to begin hotboxing the economy some more.
With it my 2020 went from bearish to bullish. This guy is the President we need.
An enemy which the U.S. (and Britain) created by their own meddling. Perhaps the meddling is the problem? The Iranian Revolution would never have proceeded the way it did without the U.S.'s Cold War actions.
If short term gains are all you care about, then may you enjoy them while they last, and don't worry about any consequences of any of this. Like, oh idk, the hair trigger Iran was on causing them to mistakenly fire a missile at an airliner and kill 176 people. Which would not have happened without the tension, because that system is not turned on otherwise. But it's all good. The Dow is testing 29k now.
Last edited by redguard57; 01-09-2020 at 02:32 PM..
No doubt we have created many of the problems now in the middle east. The biggest blunder by far was the Iraq invasion and disposal of Saddam. This basically created ISIS and created a buffer problem with Iran while at the same time giving plenty of ammo to extremists and the playground to recruit / meddle.
I disagree with dropping out of the Iran nuclear agreement. That was stupid.
I don't particularly care about Soleimani getting killed. In fact I mostly support that particular decision although I'm very dubious on the reasons they gave. If there was an attack imminent, it would have proceeded. This isn't a basketball team where you kill the best player you do real damage. If the plan was ready to go, it was ready to go. Soleimani dying certainly may hinder or prevent future plans but the idea this stopped some immediate attack is bull****. The saw an ass hole and decided to kill said ass hole. No more, no less and the world is now down one less ass hole.
That said, we need to be really cautious when we start picking off officials in other governments. We do it to them, don't be shocked if it happens to us. I'm not sure that is a great game to play long term but short term, sure, it feels ok.
What is going to happen next is really simple. Iran is going to refine uranium and test a nuclear weapon, at which point they will join the big boy table and basically be untouchable through conventional means.
I can't say I blame them. Had Iraq developed a nuke we likely would not have attempted an invasion.
Technology and advancement can't be halted forever. The idea that we can continually bomb, invade or otherwise militarily / economically dictate to the world how things will be is slowly coming to a close. We can either utilize the leverage we have smartly and quietly or we can continue to just **** in everyone's face at the same time and reap the consequences. If we are not careful we will collapse under the weight of our own actions and the bills for said actions. Our love affair with our military and attempting to impose our will on other nations will ultimately be our downfall.
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